Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
230 PM MST Sun Feb 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Moist southwest flow will keep unsettled and cool
conditions going through Tuesday. A strong cold front should be
moving across northern Arizona in the Tuesday night / Wednesday
time frame, with accumulating snow possible above 6000 feet.
Dry weather should return for thursday and Friday.

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.DISCUSSION...Forecast models are in good agreement with the
large scale pattern affecting northern Arizona through this
Friday.

For tonight and Monday. We will remain in southwest flow aloft
during this period. Radars this afternoon showing plenty of rain
showers moving from the Phoenix area through northern Gila
county, these expected to continue through this evening. There is
a trough and closed low currently off the west coast, the closed
low to weaken and move through the Great Basin late Monday night.
This feature is shown to deepen moisture profiles across
northwest AZ and bring some light showers to Yavapai and Coconino
counties.

Tuesday and Wednesday- a more significant cold front is in the
cards, with the frontal passage from west to east looking like
Tuesday night / early Wednesday. Southwest flow to bring
increasing wind speeds and moisture early Tuesday, with
increasing dynamical lift with the front Tuesday night. Present
indications are for accumulating snow at and above 7000 feet
during the day Tuesday, then accumulating snow down to 6000 feet
Tuesday night / early Wednesday. The cold pool aloft with the
trough should be overhead Wednesday, with 500 mb temps in the -29
to -33 C range, meaning afternoon surface temps in the upper 20s
F in the high country and additional snow showers. Stay tuned.

Thursday and Friday - looking dry and mostly clear at this point
as northwest flow aloft Thursday becomes westerly on Friday.
Afternoon temps should be on a warming trend, overnight lows look
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Isolated to scattered rain and
high elevation snow showers will persist into the overnight hours
becoming more numerous along the higher terrain on Monday. Localized
IFR/LIFR conditions will become more widespread overnight with areas
of low clouds and fog along and south of the Mogollon Rim. SW sfc
winds 10-15 kts increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts after
16Z Monday. Strongest winds along and northeast of the higher
terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will
continue on Monday. Precipitation chances and amounts will increase
on Tuesday with significant snow accumulations expected in the high
country. Gusty southwest winds will persist over the next few days
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph each day. Daytime temperatures will
remain below normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Rain and snow showers will persist on
Wednesday before gradually diminishing as we head into Thursday.
Well below normal high temperatures can be expected on Wednesday
with a warming trend on Thursday and Friday. Gusty southwest winds
will continue Wednesday before weakening Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...TPS
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff