Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
501 AM MST Sun Feb 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific cold front will bring widespread rain and
high mountain snow to the area through early today. In addition,
gusty southwest winds will also persist through the day.
Unsettled and cooler weather conditions will continue through at
least the middle of the week, with the possibility of a colder
and snowier system later Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong, gusty winds with substantial rainfall and mountain snow
are continuing across northern AZ early this morning. Still, snow
levels have remained above most population centers so snowfall
has not been much of an issue yet. Convective showers behind the
main frontal band may still produce some light amounts later as
snow levels drop a bit as the morning evolves.

Even behind the passing cold front, a period of unsettled weather
will persist through at least midweek. Precipitation chances with
generally light showers will continue Monday and early Tuesday.
However, greater chances for more appreciable precipitation are
forecast to develop later Tuesday into Wednesday. We've bumped up
precip chances and amounts during this period. As this next low
pressure system is expected to be colder, more of the
precipitation is likely to fall as snow than with the current
front. Details should become clearer in the coming 48 hrs.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect wdsprd IFR/LIFR in CIGS
and areas of rain and high elevation snow through 16Z-18Z, with
slowly improving conditions afterward. Showers will become more
spotty this afternoon and tonight, most prevalent along and just
SW of higher terrain, where stratus/upslope low clouds and fog
will continue. Sfc winds sw15-25g35kts, gusts to 45kts through 18Z
over higher terrain. Winds decrease tonight. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect cool conditions today, with areas of rain
and high elevation snow decreasing from west to east. Locally
gusty southwest winds will continue, especially this morning,
becoming lighter tonight. Isolated to scattered rain and snow
showers will continue on Monday, with southwest winds 10 to 20
mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...An unsettled and cool weather pattern
will continue through this time frame. Rain and snow showers
will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday, with potential for
significant snow accumulations in the high country. Showers
decrease, but do not completely end, on Thursday. Gusty southwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 30 to 40 mph expected each
day, lighter on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff