Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
655 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Adjustments made to reflect current trends in shower/thunderstorm
activity. Radar has been deceptive to to very moist/warm rain
process with even light returns associated with moderate to
sometimes heavy rainfall in our north. This is transition north
and east, but clusters of showers/storms filling in in our
souther CWA. Lull still expected across our south, later this
evening with loss of daytime heating/favorable lapse rates in
those areas. Better forcing still lingers north ahead of
deformation zone overnight some northern locations may continue to
have at least scattered showers through the evening. Deformation
zone then tracks west to east overnight into Wed morning, with
period of widespread rain/embedded thunder north of Highway 200.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Area of showers will continue to move northward through the
region. Most areas have received 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain from
this recent period of rain. Not much if any lightning with this
activity.

The southern parts of the region are drying, with satellite
showing a few breaks in the clouds. This brings up the next
concern of storms across the southern forecast area. MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG along a surface boundary with adequate low level
vorticity and effective shear around 30 knots. An ideal low topped
supercell environment (see mesoscale discussion issued earlier).

Tonight-Wednesday...Upper level low propagates eastward.
Anticipate deformation band rain showers to move through the
region by late tonight and into Wednesday, along with gusty
northerly winds. High pressure moves in by later in the day on
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Return flow on Thursday will bring warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture again as surface high pressure retreats over
Wisconsin. Expect breezy conditions as the pressure gradient begins
to tighten up. Otherwise...some shower and storm activity will
trigger ahead of the system. Behind the system...winds will become
more northerly but only expecting slight cooling.

Friday through Sunday will see a more progressive pattern as the
mean jet position lays along the international border. A series of
impulses will traverse the flow and bring additional chances for
light precipitation.

The next significant system to cross the region is forecast to be
late Sunday into early Monday. Temperatures will rebound to above
seasonal norms...with another batch of precipitation to accompany
it...to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Cluster of thunderstorms tracking east of KFAR with additional
activity possibly developing west. Better coverage of showers
along/north of Highway 2 in MN and north central ND. Eventually
this evening activity in the south should end, but terminals along
Highway 2 may still have vicinity showers through most of the TAF
period. Next period of widespread showers will be after 08Z in ND
and 12Z in MN. MVFR CIGS lingering across parts of the region,
and while periods of VFR possible through tonight, best chance for
prolonged prevailing VFR conditions won't be until late Wed
afternoon as system begins to move east of the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
341 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101215-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
341 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
across southeast North Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota.
Threats include hail up to 1.5 inches and wind gusts to 60 mph. A
tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The next main chances of thunderstorms will occur Thursday
evening and again next Monday. The atmosphere is such so that it
is possible strong or severe storms may occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

dtr/TG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
805 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

MNZ027-028-100145-
West Becker MN-East Becker MN-
805 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BECKER COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Detroit Lakes, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Detroit Lakes, Height Of Land Lake, Shoreham, Rochert, Westbury,
Frazee and southwestern Toad Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4672 9599 4688 9604 4703 9557 4674 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 254DEG 21KT 4683 9587

Lynch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
829 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

MNZ030-031-100215-
East Otter Tail MN-West Otter Tail MN-
829 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 829 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Amor, or 20 miles northeast of Fergus Falls, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Perham, Ottertail Lake, New York Mills, Battle Lake, Ottertail, Deer
Creek and Bluffton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4631 9580 4642 9586 4651 9583 4668 9537
      4642 9519 4627 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 246DEG 17KT 4644 9570

Lynch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
901 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E OTTERTAIL           46.43N 95.47W
07/09/2019  E60 MPH          Otter Tail         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ROCKING THE VEHICLE WITH SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED
            BRANCHES LITTERING THE ROADWAY. HAIL UP TO HALF IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
904 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

MNZ027-028-031-100245-
West Becker MN-East Otter Tail MN-East Becker MN-
904 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OTTER TAIL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BECKER COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 904 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Frazee, or 7 miles east of Detroit Lakes, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frazee, Toad Lake, Height Of Land Lake, Wolf Lake, Rochert, Evergreen
and Snellman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4667 9571 4681 9584 4702 9550 4678 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 238DEG 19KT 4677 9569

Lynch

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