Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
655 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Adjustments made to reflect current trends in shower/thunderstorm
activity. Radar has been deceptive to to very moist/warm rain
process with even light returns associated with moderate to
sometimes heavy rainfall in our north. This is transition north
and east, but clusters of showers/storms filling in in our
souther CWA. Lull still expected across our south, later this
evening with loss of daytime heating/favorable lapse rates in
those areas. Better forcing still lingers north ahead of
deformation zone overnight some northern locations may continue to
have at least scattered showers through the evening. Deformation
zone then tracks west to east overnight into Wed morning, with
period of widespread rain/embedded thunder north of Highway 200.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Area of showers will continue to move northward through the
region. Most areas have received 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain from
this recent period of rain. Not much if any lightning with this
activity.

The southern parts of the region are drying, with satellite
showing a few breaks in the clouds. This brings up the next
concern of storms across the southern forecast area. MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG along a surface boundary with adequate low level
vorticity and effective shear around 30 knots. An ideal low topped
supercell environment (see mesoscale discussion issued earlier).

Tonight-Wednesday...Upper level low propagates eastward.
Anticipate deformation band rain showers to move through the
region by late tonight and into Wednesday, along with gusty
northerly winds. High pressure moves in by later in the day on
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Return flow on Thursday will bring warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture again as surface high pressure retreats over
Wisconsin. Expect breezy conditions as the pressure gradient begins
to tighten up. Otherwise...some shower and storm activity will
trigger ahead of the system. Behind the system...winds will become
more northerly but only expecting slight cooling.

Friday through Sunday will see a more progressive pattern as the
mean jet position lays along the international border. A series of
impulses will traverse the flow and bring additional chances for
light precipitation.

The next significant system to cross the region is forecast to be
late Sunday into early Monday. Temperatures will rebound to above
seasonal norms...with another batch of precipitation to accompany
it...to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Cluster of thunderstorms tracking east of KFAR with additional
activity possibly developing west. Better coverage of showers
along/north of Highway 2 in MN and north central ND. Eventually
this evening activity in the south should end, but terminals along
Highway 2 may still have vicinity showers through most of the TAF
period. Next period of widespread showers will be after 08Z in ND
and 12Z in MN. MVFR CIGS lingering across parts of the region,
and while periods of VFR possible through tonight, best chance for
prolonged prevailing VFR conditions won't be until late Wed
afternoon as system begins to move east of the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
341 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101215-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
341 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
across southeast North Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota.
Threats include hail up to 1.5 inches and wind gusts to 60 mph. A
tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The next main chances of thunderstorms will occur Thursday
evening and again next Monday. The atmosphere is such so that it
is possible strong or severe storms may occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

dtr/TG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
608 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     TORNADO          3 N BRECKENRIDGE        46.31N 96.59W
07/09/2019                   Wilkin             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ROPING OUT NNE OF WAHPETON OR NORTH OF
            BRECKENRIDGE.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N CARLISLE            46.40N 96.19W
07/09/2019                   Otter Tail         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT WITH PHOTO SENT. WALL CLOUD WITH WEAK AND BRIEF
            DIFFUSE FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
715 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

MNZ003-027-100100-
West Becker MN-Clay MN-
715 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CLAY AND WESTERN
BECKER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dale, or 17 miles west of Detroit Lakes, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm; brief
funnel clouds possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hawley, Lake Park, Callaway, Westbury, Dale and Detroit Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4675 9627 4691 9637 4709 9592 4684 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 247DEG 15KT 4687 9619

Lynch