Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
238 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Weak upper level trough over the area will support higher
precipitation coverage through the short term. The trough has
allowed deeper moisture to advect into the area, contributing to a
moist and unsettled airmass over the state. A surface low nearby
will traverse the state through Tuesday, triggering greater diurnally-
driven storm development each afternoon and evening. Forecast
continues to show areas of likely pops each afternoon, with good
chance pops elsewhere.

Widespread severe weather is not a concern through the short term,
although it is still possible for a few storms to become strong to
marginally severe. The main concerns are gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Increased cloudiness and storm coverage will result in slightly
cooler high temperatures on Tuesday. Expect most areas to reach only
the upper 80s to low 90s, with Heat Index values under 100.

31

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Diurnally driven scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be the norm in the extended periods of the forecast. The area
will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge
over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge. Moisture continues to
slowly increase across the area through the end of the week which
will will provide a boost each afternoon for convective development.
By the end of the week, the models are showing a cold front
pushing south out of the great lake state Thursday and into North
GA Friday. The models show this frontal boundary stalling across the
southeastern U.S. and keeping rain chances across the region
through the end of the forecast period. Another weaker wave also
pushes northeast out of the western gulf which will also keep
precip chances going through day 7. As for now, will continue
with scattered to numerous convection each day.

Temperatures, while tempered somewhat by increased convection, will
remain above normal through the week. The increased moisture will
also keep afternoon heat index values from the upper 90s to low
100s.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect better precipitation coverage today, and have indicated
TEMPO TSRA for all TAF sites generally 20-00Z. MVFR-VFR cigs will
continue, with some improvement this evening with diminishing
precip before degrading overnight. IFR cigs and IFR-MVFR
visibilities will move northwestward into the area from the
south, with IFR cigs expected at KCSG, KMCN, and AHN. The
Atlanta-area sites could see FEW-SCT low MVFR, but lowest cigs
are expected to stay south of the KATL airport at this time. Will
be dependent on rain today. Winds will be east, with a shift to
the west possible after 00z Wednesday. Speeds under 8kt except
near convection.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  70  90 /  40  60  50  40
Atlanta         73  89  72  90 /  40  50  40  40
Blairsville     65  85  65  87 /  30  50  40  40
Cartersville    71  92  71  92 /  30  40  30  40
Columbus        74  90  72  92 /  50  50  30  40
Gainesville     71  89  71  90 /  30  50  40  40
Macon           72  88  71  91 /  50  60  40  40
Rome            71  93  72  93 /  20  30  30  40
Peachtree City  71  91  71  92 /  40  50  40  40
Vidalia         72  89  72  92 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much
of north and central Georgia this afternoon into tonight.
Gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall
are possible.

Heat index values will range between 100 and 105 degrees across
portions of north and central Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of north
and central Georgia through the week, mainly in the afternoon and
evening. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe with
gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of any severe weather or flooding through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

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