Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
238 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Weak upper level trough over the area will support higher
precipitation coverage through the short term. The trough has
allowed deeper moisture to advect into the area, contributing to a
moist and unsettled airmass over the state. A surface low nearby
will traverse the state through Tuesday, triggering greater diurnally-
driven storm development each afternoon and evening. Forecast
continues to show areas of likely pops each afternoon, with good
chance pops elsewhere.

Widespread severe weather is not a concern through the short term,
although it is still possible for a few storms to become strong to
marginally severe. The main concerns are gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Increased cloudiness and storm coverage will result in slightly
cooler high temperatures on Tuesday. Expect most areas to reach only
the upper 80s to low 90s, with Heat Index values under 100.

31

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Diurnally driven scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be the norm in the extended periods of the forecast. The area
will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge
over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge. Moisture continues to
slowly increase across the area through the end of the week which
will will provide a boost each afternoon for convective development.
By the end of the week, the models are showing a cold front
pushing south out of the great lake state Thursday and into North
GA Friday. The models show this frontal boundary stalling across the
southeastern U.S. and keeping rain chances across the region
through the end of the forecast period. Another weaker wave also
pushes northeast out of the western gulf which will also keep
precip chances going through day 7. As for now, will continue
with scattered to numerous convection each day.

Temperatures, while tempered somewhat by increased convection, will
remain above normal through the week. The increased moisture will
also keep afternoon heat index values from the upper 90s to low
100s.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect better precipitation coverage today, and have indicated
TEMPO TSRA for all TAF sites generally 20-00Z. MVFR-VFR cigs will
continue, with some improvement this evening with diminishing
precip before degrading overnight. IFR cigs and IFR-MVFR
visibilities will move northwestward into the area from the
south, with IFR cigs expected at KCSG, KMCN, and AHN. The
Atlanta-area sites could see FEW-SCT low MVFR, but lowest cigs
are expected to stay south of the KATL airport at this time. Will
be dependent on rain today. Winds will be east, with a shift to
the west possible after 00z Wednesday. Speeds under 8kt except
near convection.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  70  90 /  40  60  50  40
Atlanta         73  89  72  90 /  40  50  40  40
Blairsville     65  85  65  87 /  30  50  40  40
Cartersville    71  92  71  92 /  30  40  30  40
Columbus        74  90  72  92 /  50  50  30  40
Gainesville     71  89  71  90 /  30  50  40  40
Macon           72  88  71  91 /  50  60  40  40
Rome            71  93  72  93 /  20  30  30  40
Peachtree City  71  91  71  92 /  40  50  40  40
Vidalia         72  89  72  92 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much
of north and central Georgia this afternoon into tonight.
Gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall
are possible.

Heat index values will range between 100 and 105 degrees across
portions of north and central Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of north
and central Georgia through the week, mainly in the afternoon and
evening. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe with
gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of any severe weather or flooding through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ006>008-014-015-192030-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
355 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GILMER...NORTHWESTERN
DAWSON...UNION...LUMPKIN AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hemp, or 9 miles east
of Blue Ridge...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blue Ridge, Blairsville, Morganton, Suches, Amicalola Falls State
Park, Loving, Jones Creek, Woods Hole Shelter, Len Foote Hike Inn,
Pisgah, Mineral Bluff, Vogel State Park, Cherry Log, Stover Creek
Shelter, Turners Corner, Gaddistown, Hemp, Margret, Camp Merrill and
Nottely Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3471 8386 3469 8386 3468 8387 3467 8387
      3466 8388 3461 8387 3448 8424 3471 8440
      3499 8436 3499 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 072DEG 10KT 3489 8416

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ014-015-022-023-192030-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-Lumpkin GA-
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HALL...SOUTHEASTERN
DAWSON...FORSYTH AND SOUTHEASTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

At 359 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Silver City, or near
Dawsonville...moving southwest at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Gainesville, Cumming, Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Dougherty, Drew, Coal
Mountain, Hightower, Matt, Aqualand Park, Silver City, Chestatee,
Murrayville, Oscarville, Auraria and War Hill Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3445 8382 3422 8392 3412 8418 3431 8426
      3435 8426 3454 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 033DEG 6KT 3433 8408

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
401 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N HICKORY FLAT        34.20N  84.42W
08/19/2019                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A LARGE TREE WAS DOWNED ON EAST CHEROKEE DRIVE AT BART
            MANOUS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900670

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
403 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ020-031-192030-
Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
403 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARTOW AND
NORTHEASTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Emerson, or near
Cartersville...moving southwest at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Euharlee, Emerson, George Washington Carver St Pk and
Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3416 8490 3415 8466 3408 8466 3408 8473
      3405 8474 3403 8479 3409 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 027DEG 6KT 3411 8476

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE BUFFINGTON         34.23N  84.41W
08/19/2019                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES WERE DOWNED AND BLOCKING UNION HILL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900671

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ001>003-192045-
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
415 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CATOOSA...
NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND NORTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 415 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lookout Mountain, or 8
miles southwest of Chattanooga...moving west at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville, Lookout Mountain, Fairview,
Lakeview, Chattanooga  Valley, New England, Morganville, Hooker and
Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3493 8522 3485 8549 3498 8553 3499 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 080DEG 15KT 3497 8536

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH