Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
238 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Weak upper level trough over the area will support higher
precipitation coverage through the short term. The trough has
allowed deeper moisture to advect into the area, contributing to a
moist and unsettled airmass over the state. A surface low nearby
will traverse the state through Tuesday, triggering greater diurnally-
driven storm development each afternoon and evening. Forecast
continues to show areas of likely pops each afternoon, with good
chance pops elsewhere.

Widespread severe weather is not a concern through the short term,
although it is still possible for a few storms to become strong to
marginally severe. The main concerns are gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Increased cloudiness and storm coverage will result in slightly
cooler high temperatures on Tuesday. Expect most areas to reach only
the upper 80s to low 90s, with Heat Index values under 100.

31

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Diurnally driven scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be the norm in the extended periods of the forecast. The area
will remain situated in the weak upper trough between the ridge
over the Plains and western Atlantic ridge. Moisture continues to
slowly increase across the area through the end of the week which
will will provide a boost each afternoon for convective development.
By the end of the week, the models are showing a cold front
pushing south out of the great lake state Thursday and into North
GA Friday. The models show this frontal boundary stalling across the
southeastern U.S. and keeping rain chances across the region
through the end of the forecast period. Another weaker wave also
pushes northeast out of the western gulf which will also keep
precip chances going through day 7. As for now, will continue
with scattered to numerous convection each day.

Temperatures, while tempered somewhat by increased convection, will
remain above normal through the week. The increased moisture will
also keep afternoon heat index values from the upper 90s to low
100s.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect better precipitation coverage today, and have indicated
TEMPO TSRA for all TAF sites generally 20-00Z. MVFR-VFR cigs will
continue, with some improvement this evening with diminishing
precip before degrading overnight. IFR cigs and IFR-MVFR
visibilities will move northwestward into the area from the
south, with IFR cigs expected at KCSG, KMCN, and AHN. The
Atlanta-area sites could see FEW-SCT low MVFR, but lowest cigs
are expected to stay south of the KATL airport at this time. Will
be dependent on rain today. Winds will be east, with a shift to
the west possible after 00z Wednesday. Speeds under 8kt except
near convection.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  70  90 /  40  60  50  40
Atlanta         73  89  72  90 /  40  50  40  40
Blairsville     65  85  65  87 /  30  50  40  40
Cartersville    71  92  71  92 /  30  40  30  40
Columbus        74  90  72  92 /  50  50  30  40
Gainesville     71  89  71  90 /  30  50  40  40
Macon           72  88  71  91 /  50  60  40  40
Rome            71  93  72  93 /  20  30  30  40
Peachtree City  71  91  71  92 /  40  50  40  40
Vidalia         72  89  72  92 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much
of north and central Georgia this afternoon into tonight.
Gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall
are possible.

Heat index values will range between 100 and 105 degrees across
portions of north and central Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of north
and central Georgia through the week, mainly in the afternoon and
evening. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe with
gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of any severe weather or flooding through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
609 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E COOSA               34.26N  85.30W
08/19/2019                   FLOYD              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON PINECREST DRIVE NW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900685

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
611 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE COOSA             34.19N  85.29W
08/19/2019                   FLOYD              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED AT THE INSTERSECTION OF BLACKS BLUFF
            RD SW AND LIVINGSTON RD SW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900686

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
613 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ102-103-192245-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
613 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART AND SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Troutman, or 7 miles
southeast of Lumpkin...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumpkin, Richland, Weston, Troutman, Charles, Kimbrough, Sanford,
Westville and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8467 3193 8468 3192 8469 3192 8480
      3193 8480 3192 8481 3192 8491 3195 8496
      3198 8496 3198 8503 3215 8498 3215 8465
      3192 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 072DEG 8KT 3195 8474

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE SAUTEE            34.71N  83.66W
08/19/2019                   WHITE              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT HWY 255 N AND SKY LAKE RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900687

KMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
621 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ025-035-192245-
Jackson GA-Barrow GA-
621 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND BARROW
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 621 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Russell, or near
Winder. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Auburn, Statham, Bethlehem, Carl, Russell, Fort Yargo State
Park and County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3401 8353 3391 8365 3391 8366 3392 8367
      3391 8369 3403 8383 3412 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 058DEG 3KT 3402 8366

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
633 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

GAZ025-027-036>038-192300-
Madison GA-Jackson GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
633 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...CLARKE AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 632 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Athens. This storm was
nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Danielsville, Athens, Comer, Winterville, Colbert, Ila, Carlton,
Hull, Athens-Clarke County, Whitehall, Westgate Park, James Holland
Youth Sports Cmpx, Diamond Hill, Smithonia, Beechwood Hills, Sandy
Creek Recreation Area, Oconee Heights, Barretts Mill, Paoli and
Dunlap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3426 8312 3423 8308 3417 8310 3415 8306
      3412 8305 3411 8303 3410 8304 3408 8300
      3405 8299 3386 8337 3395 8350 3400 8351
      3418 8330 3425 8320 3424 8317 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 058DEG 2KT 3397 8337

WIND...40MPH