River Flood Warning 56, NWS Atlanta, GA

854 
WGUS82 KFFC 241854
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
154 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Turkey Creek near Byromville affecting Dooly County 


GAC093-250853-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190125T1332Z/
/BVLG1.1.ER.190124T1810Z.190125T0400Z.190125T0732Z.NO/
154 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey Creek near Byromville.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 1 PM Thursday the stage was 10.2 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding will continue.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 10.2 feet by tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage after midnight tomorrow.
* At 10 feet...Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of woodlands 
  occurs upstream and downstream from the stream gage on Georgia 
  Highway 90. Portions of creek access roads and low lying areas will
  begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3229 8385 3225 8380 3218 8387 3210 8391
      3210 8398 3220 8394             

$$

668 
WGUS82 KFFC 242019
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Turkey Creek near Byromville affecting Dooly County 


GAC093-251018-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190125T1332Z/
/BVLG1.1.ER.190124T1810Z.190124T1945Z.190125T0732Z.NO/
319 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey Creek near Byromville.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 3 PM Thursday the stage was 10.4 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding will continue.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after 
  midnight.
* At 10 feet...Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of woodlands 
  occurs upstream and downstream from the stream gage on Georgia 
  Highway 90. Portions of creek access roads and low lying areas will
  begin to flood.


&&

LAT...LON 3229 8385 3225 8380 3218 8387 3210 8391
      3210 8398 3220 8394             

$$

466 
WGUS82 KFFC 250122
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
822 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Flint River near Lovejoy affecting Clayton...Fayette and Spalding 
  Counties 

 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Line Creek near Senoia affecting Coweta...Fayette and Spalding 
  Counties 

  Turkey Creek near Byromville affecting Dooly County 


GAC063-113-255-251522-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0052.190125T0122Z-190125T1727Z/
/LOVG1.1.ER.190125T0122Z.190125T0600Z.190125T1127Z.NO/
822 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Flint River near Lovejoy.
* From this evening until Friday afternoon.
* At 745 PM Thursday the stage was 11.9 feet...and 
  rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 13.0 feet after midnight tonight. The river will 
  fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* At 14.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding 
  occurs of residential yards upstream of the gage betweenUpper 
  Riverdale Road and Georgia Highway 138. Some roads begin to flood 
  such as Upper Riverdale Road and Mockingbird Road. Flooding expands
  on portions of the Rivers Edge Golf Course. Several holes and 
  fairways will flood. 
 

&&

LAT...LON 3360 8444 3363 8438 3354 8434 3340 8435
      3340 8443 3354 8441             

$$

GAC077-113-255-251522-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LING1.1.ER.190124T1548Z.190124T1901Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
822 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Line Creek near Senoia.
* Until further notice.
* At 745 PM Thursday the stage was 10.0 feet...and 
  falling.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of the natural flood plain begins 
  which primarily affects agricultural and wooded areas. A small dirt
  utility access road near the Georgia Highway 85 bridge goes 
  underwater.
 

&&

LAT...LON 3332 8456 3335 8451 3330 8448 3328 8455


$$

GAC093-251332-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190125T1332Z/
/BVLG1.1.ER.190124T1810Z.190125T0000Z.190125T0732Z.NO/
822 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey Creek near Byromville.
* Until Friday morning.
* At 745 PM Thursday the stage was 10.7 feet...and 
  falling.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* The river will fall to below flood stage Friday.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding expands into the woodland areas 
  upstream and downstream from the stream gage on Georgia Highway 90.
  Larger portions of creek access roads will flood.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.8 feet on Feb 5 2011.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3229 8385 3225 8380 3218 8387 3210 8391
      3210 8398 3220 8394             

$$

002 
WGUS82 KFFC 251105
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
605 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Turkey Creek near Byromville affecting Dooly County

 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Coahulla Creek near Keiths Mill near Dalton affecting Whitfield 
  County 

  Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville affecting Pulaski County 

  Coosa River near Rome Mayos Bar L & D Park affecting Floyd County 

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties 


GAC313-260104-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-190126T2310Z/
/CHCG1.1.ER.190124T1045Z.190125T2200Z.190126T1710Z.UU/
605 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Coahulla Creek near Keiths Mill near Dalton.
* Until Saturday evening.
* At 545 AM Friday the stage was 17 feet, and slowly rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast to 
  continue.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* The creek will continue rising, reaching near 17.1 feet by this 
  afternoon, then begin falling. The river is forecast to fall below 
  flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* Between 16 and 18 feet, minor flooding occurs in the pastures, 
  fields and woodlands upstream and downstream from the Keiths Mill 
  Road bridge.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8489 3480 8495 3488 8495 3488 8486
      3480 8488 3474 8486             

$$

GAC115-260104-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RMBG1.1.ER.190124T1853Z.190125T0646Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
605 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Coosa River near Rome Mayos Bar L & D Park.
* Until further notice.
* At 445 AM Friday the stage was 24.6 feet, and slowly falling.
* Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is expected to 
  continue.
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* At 24 feet, minor flooding occurs in the woodlands, fields and 
  pastures along the river upstream and downstream from the gage on 
  the old Lock and Dam behind the Trading Post. The boat ramp will 
  be mostly under water at the Lock and Dam park.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8524 3421 8518 3417 8526 3420 8536
      3425 8531 3423 8526             

$$

GAC117-121-260104-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190126T1108Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.190124T0625Z.190125T1200Z.190126T0508Z.NO/
605 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Creek near Alpharetta.
* Until Saturday morning.
* At 545 AM Friday the stage was 8.1 feet, and nearly steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast to 
  continue.
* Flood stage is 7 feet.
* The river will begin falling later this morning and is forecast 
  to fall below flood stage after midnight Saturday morning.
* At 8 feet, minor flooding continues in the woodlands and fields 
  along the creek from near Cumming in south Forsyth County to 
  Alpharetta and Roswell in north Fulton County. Portions of The 
  Big Creek Greenway have minor flooding with 1 to 2 feet of water. 
  Most of the walking and biking paths will be closed, especially 
  upstream and downstream from the gage on Kimball Bridge Road and 
  near Rock Mill Park. Portions of the YMCA Campground off Preston 
  Ridge Road will be flood.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427             

$$

GAC235-252326-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-190125T2326Z/
/TSCG1.1.ER.190125T0137Z.190125T0915Z.190125T1726Z.NO/
605 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville.
* Until this evening.
* At 545 AM Friday the stage was 11.8 feet, and nearly steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast to 
  continue.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* The river will begin to fall early this morning, dropping below 
  flood stage this afternoon.
* At 11 feet, minor flooding occurs in the woodlands, fields and 
  pastures upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia Highways 
  257 and 27.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8361 3224 8342 3218 8342 3225 8364


$$

GAC093-251135-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190125T1332Z/
/BVLG1.1.ER.190124T1810Z.190125T0000Z.190125T0945Z.NO/
605 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Turkey Creek near Byromville.
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until this morning.
* At 545 AM Friday the stage was 9.9 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
* Between 8 and 10 feet, bankfull conditions occur upstream and 
  downstream from the stream gage on Georgia Highway 90. 

&&

LAT...LON 3229 8385 3225 8380 3218 8387 3210 8391
      3210 8398 3220 8394             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1255 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1014 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019/

UPDATE...
With lingering cloud cover and a cooler airmass filtering into
NW GA this morning...we are getting some reports of flurries. have
updated the forecast and sent out a special weather statement. Not
expecting any accumulations as ground temperatures are to warm and
this will be a short lived event.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019/

.Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

The cold front was just east of Athens to Macon this morning and
will continue to push eastward. Some light rain is lingering behind
the front into north and west GA...but think we will see drying from
the west around 12z. The colder air is still mostly in AL with mid
40s just starting to enter the far northwest. Cooling may not be
quick enough to cause the brief rain/snow mix in the far northeast
this morning...but not confident enough to take it out. Not looking
for any accumulation if we do get it. Temperatures will again be
difficult today with a non diurnal trace and temperatures generally
falling during the day. Expecting gusty northwest winds today but
think they will stay below wind advisory criteria. Tonight will be
clear and colder. A weak impulse crossing the TN Valley on Friday
may bring only some cloudiness to north GA. Will keep the Flash
Flood Watch until expiration at 12z.

41

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

A strong surface High Pressure system will be settled in over the
region at the start of the long term period, keeping areas of
precipitation at bay towards the north and south through the
weekend. Temps will generally be around normal (albeit slowly
warming each consecutive day) with high temperatures in the 40s and
50s. Afterwards, chances of precip in the region go up as a cold
front is expected by Tuesday morning, with temperatures ranging from
10-15 degrees below normal by next Wednesday, with low temps in the
20s Wednesday morning.

In general, the GFS and Euro are in good agreement regarding the
overall pattern, through the long term, with the GFS-FV3 lagging
behind while elongating the cold front. The result is a chance for
precip from ranging from early Tuesday morning through Thursday
morning. Both the GFS and Euro agree on the highest chances of
precip coming during the day on Tuesday, with precip falling behind
the cold front. The Euro hints at some snow flurries behind the line
of storms where the GFS is much more bullish with light snow
coverage with chances all the way down to central Georgia. Both then
clear out with high pressure settling in with a weak shortwave
moving through Wednesday night. the Euro keeps this wave dry while
the GFS hints at light snow flurries possible for far North Georgia.
The GFS-FV3 on the other hand, elongates the cold front, pushing it
through slowly on Wednesday. It's much drier than the Euro and GFS,
but still has a strong signal that we could see so mixed/frozen
precip through the area on Wednesday instead, even into central
Georgia. The current forecast blends these 3 scenarios with each
having some consistency to their claims from the previous night.
Guidance has been putting a signal for some winter precip around
this time for the last several days with no clear indication on
which way Mother Nature will go. Seemed appropriate to include at
least a slight chance of each possibility. Although if you hold my
feet to the fire, I'd lean towards the Euro (front Tuesday, little
chance of frozen precip with higher temps and dry the next several
days afterwards).

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
MVFR ceilings across most of the TAF sites but the cloud cover is
diminishing fast. will see VFR ceilings within the next few hours
and stay that way through the rest of the TAF period. There are a
few areas of -DZ but that will diminish soon also. Winds expected
to stay out of the NW through the period. Wind speeds are in the
10-15kt range with gust to 25kt. These winds loose there gust
around sunset but will stay around 10kt over night. Wind speeds
will increase again slightly Friday with speeds in the 10-15kt
range but not expecting the gust.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          50  30  46  24 /  30   5   0   0
Atlanta         45  30  42  25 /  10   5   5   0
Blairsville     39  24  36  18 /  20   5   0   0
Cartersville    43  28  40  21 /  20   5   0   0
Columbus        50  32  50  27 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     45  29  42  24 /  20   5   0   0
Macon           53  32  50  24 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            43  28  39  21 /  20   5   0   0
Peachtree City  47  30  44  23 /  10   5   0   0
Vidalia         60  35  53  29 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1023 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251530-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
1023 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Some light snow flurries are ongoing across far northern Georgia
and will continue until early afternoon. Widespread snow
accumulations are not anticipated, with the exception of some
possible light accumulations in higher elevations.

A handful of rivers and creeks have risen out of their banks in
Northern Georgia and across the Atlanta metro from the recent
rainfall with the most sensitive now beginning to recede but
several others remaining above flood stage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Our next cold front is expected on Tuesday with a line of showers
expected to move through the forecast area, with a chance for some
light snow for north Georgia. There's still some uncertainty
regarding this system, so please stay informed regarding the
forecast going forward as the forecast is subject to change.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1009 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

GAZ001>009-011>013-241800-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-
1009 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...Light Snow Over Far North Georgia This Morning...

Locations in far north Georgia are experiencing light snow
flurries due to a combination of light showers behind an exiting
cold front, and near freezing temperatures in the area.
Widespread snow accumulations are not expected, with the exception
of the higher elevations, which could see some light
accumulations. Impacts are expected to be minimal as the passing
showers are expected to end by the early afternoon.