Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
731 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick issuance of the zones to add the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
(151) for the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Austin Metro areas.
Currently there is one severe thunderstorms that produced at least
Golf Ball sized hail just to the east of Kerrville. Other storms are
on going on the western side of Bexar County and near Boerne.
Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) show a broken line of thunderstorms
that will slowly progress across South Central Texas through the day.
Activity should decrease this evening, but not before the threat of
both strong to severe storms (main threats are hail, wind if any
bowing segments develop, and an isolated tornado is possible) and
brief heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding. Parts of Metro
Austin picked up 2.5-2.85 inches of rain in just over an hour last
night, with more rain expected over these areas today and for the
days to come.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019/

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA will gradually become more numerous as they move from west
to east across South Central Texas this morning into afternoon, then
decrease from west to east tonight.

At KDRT, expect VCSH with MVFR CIGs and SE winds 10 to 15 KTs rapidly
becoming VFR mid morning with passage of a dryline shifting winds to
NW at 7 to 15 KTs. VFR prevails through tonight with variable winds
of 5 KTs or less.

At KSAT/KSSF, -SHRA with LIFR/IFR conditions SE winds of 7 to 11 KTs
will continue through the morning with a TEMPO of TSRA from 12Z-16Z.
Winds turn S at 12 to 18 KTs and gusty late morning with CIGs slowly
rising to MVFR, then low end VFR late afternoon into evening. Have
gone VCTS this afternoon due to uncertainty of redevelopment. CIGs
lower to MVFR this evening and IFR overnight as winds decrease to
around 5 KTs.

At KAUS, SHRA with IFR conditions will develop at KAUS by mid
morning with S winds of 8 to 12 KTS. CIGs slowly rise to MVFR midday
and low end VFR late afternoon as S winds increase to 12 to 20 KTs
and gusty late morning through early evening with TEMPO of TSRA from
18Z-22Z. CIGs lower to MVFR this evening and IFR overnight as winds
decrease to around 5 KTs. A cold front moves through late Thursday
morning with winds shifting to N at 10 to 15 KTs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The latest surface analysis shows an upper trough across New Mexico
with a dry-line extending from the Panhandle down across West Texas.
The focus of ongoing convection has been north of our area ahead of
the dry-line with only a few showers across the western counties. As
the dry-line progresses east, a line of storms along the boundary is
expected to move into area later this morning. With high CAPE, from
3500-4000 J/kg, severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
expected. Greatest chances for strongest storms will be in the Hill
Country and northeastern counties. The threat for locally heavy rain
is also play today with PWATS still elevated, ranging from 1.7 to
1.9. This is particularly important for areas that have already
received multiple rounds of downpours over the past couple of days.
With already saturated ground, rapid run-off leading to flash
flooding will likely occur. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
vulnerable counties, including Blanco, Burnet, Gillespie, Hays,
Llano, Travis, and Williamson counties. It is extremely important to
stay weather aware and avoid areas prone to flooding.

With the dry-line progressing eastward, clearing skies out west with
residual showers in the eastern CWA by tonight. By Thursday, multiple
features increase rain chances, yet again. A cold front moves into
the area Thursday bringing more rain. Timing and progression of the
front will be crucial to rainfall amounts. As of now, highest totals
look to be in our southeastern counties.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Thursday night into Friday will likely still see widespread showers
and storms from the cold front as it slows near our southern border.
WPC has a moderate risk for Excessive Rainfall for our far eastern
border, with a slight risk covering the I-35 corridor, and a marginal
for the remaining area. These risk categories refer to the potential
for rainfall amounts to exceed flash flood guidance.

Bottom Line: The continuing wet pattern will set the area up for
flash flooding as well as potential river flooding. Avoid all areas
prone to flash flooding. Do not drive into flooded roadways. Have
multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

As the frontal boundary slowly dissolves and moves east, Sunday will
see low chances for rain, and higher chances for some sun. The relief
is short-lived as the next approaching upper low increases rain
chances by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  69  82  57  69 /  80  40  50  80  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  69  82  57  70 /  70  40  50  80  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  68  81  58  70 /  70  30  60  80  70
Burnet Muni Airport            81  66  79  53  66 /  80  30  30  60  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  66  85  60  71 /  10   0  40  70  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  68  81  55  69 /  80  30  40  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             86  67  82  59  72 /  60  10  50  70  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  68  82  57  71 /  70  30  60  80  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  71  84  61  74 /  70  50  60  90  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  69  81  59  71 /  70  20  50  80  70
Stinson Muni Airport           82  70  81  60  71 /  60  20  60  80  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blanco-Burnet-
Gillespie-Hays-Llano-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
731 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-091245-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
731 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of the
Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Austin metro area through 1 pm
this afternoon. An enhanced to slight risk of severe storms is
forecast across much of South Central Texas today into tonight
with a potential of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even
isolated tornadoes. In addition, repeat storms moving over the
same areas could lead to heavy rains and flash flooding. A Flash
Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern Hill Country into the
Austin Metro area from 10 AM through 7 PM today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday through
Tuesday. The threat for heavy rains and flooding is elevated with
strong to severe storms also possible. The highest threats are on
Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any severe weather or flooding to the National Weather
Service.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
733 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     HAIL             CENTER POINT            29.94N 99.04W
05/08/2019  E1.25 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
737 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

TXZ188-081300-
Gillespie TX-
737 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY UNTIL
800 AM CDT...

At 737 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cain City, or near Fredericksburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Stonewall, Blumenthal, Luckenbach, Eckert, Cain City,
Willow City, Grapetown, Rocky Hill, LBJ State Park and LBJ National
Historical Park.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3023 9859 3014 9875 3014 9889 3021 9897
      3050 9868 3050 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 227DEG 32KT 3020 9884

HAMPSHIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
758 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

TXZ183-081345-
Val Verde TX-
758 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 758 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 21 miles southwest of Sonora to 7 miles south
of Juno. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Loma Alta, Bakers Crossing, Devils River SNA - Del Norte, Vinegarone
and Devils River SNA - Big Satan.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3029 10093 3029 10070 2996 10070 2971 10099
      3003 10123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 315DEG 14KT 3030 10082 3004 10112

HAMPSHIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
839 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

TXZ183-184-081445-
Val Verde TX-Edwards TX-
839 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND
NORTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

At 839 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 21 miles south of Sonora to 11 miles southeast
of Juno. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rocksprings, Bakers Crossing, Devil's Sinkhole State Natural Area,
Us-277 Near The Sutton-Edwards County Line and Devils River SNA -
Del Norte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3029 10084 3029 9994 2996 10015 2996 10115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1339Z 270DEG 18KT 3026 10062 3005 10096

HUFFMAN