Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
311 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The latest surface analysis shows an upper trough across New Mexico
with a dry-line extending from the Panhandle down across West Texas.
The focus of ongoing convection has been north of our area ahead of
the dry-line with only a few showers across the western counties. As
the dry-line progresses east, a line of storms along the boundary is
expected to move into area later this morning. With high CAPE, from
3500-4000 J/kg, severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
expected. Greatest chances for strongest storms will be in the Hill
Country and northeastern counties. The threat for locally heavy rain
is also play today with PWATS still elevated, ranging from 1.7 to
1.9. This is particularly important for areas that have already
received multiple rounds of downpours over the past couple of days.
With already saturated ground, rapid run-off leading to flash
flooding will likely occur. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
vulnerable counties, including Blanco, Burnet, Gillespie, Hays,
Llano, Travis, and Williamson counties. It is extremely important to
stay weather aware and avoid areas prone to flooding.

With the dry-line progressing eastward, clearing skies out west with
residual showers in the eastern CWA by tonight. By Thursday, multiple
features increase rain chances, yet again. A cold front moves into
the area Thursday bringing more rain. Timing and progression of the
front will be crucial to rainfall amounts. As of now, highest totals
look to be in our southeastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Thursday night into Friday will likely still see widespread showers
and storms from the cold front as it slows near our southern border.
WPC has a moderate risk for Excessive Rainfall for our far eastern
border, with a slight risk covering the I-35 corridor, and a marginal
for the remaining area. These risk categories refer to the potential
for rainfall amounts to exceed flash flood guidance.

Bottom Line: The continuing wet pattern will set the area up for
flash flooding as well as potential river flooding. Avoid all areas
prone to flash flooding. Do not drive into flooded roadways. Have
multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

As the frontal boundary slowly dissolves and moves east, Sunday will
see low chances for rain, and higher chances for some sun. The relief
is short-lived as the next approaching upper low increases rain
chances by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  69  82  57  69 /  80  40  50  80  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  69  82  57  70 /  70  40  50  80  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  68  81  58  70 /  70  30  60  80  70
Burnet Muni Airport            81  66  79  53  66 /  80  30  30  60  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  66  85  60  71 /  10   0  40  70  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  68  81  55  69 /  80  30  40  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             86  67  82  59  72 /  60  10  50  70  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  68  82  57  71 /  70  30  60  80  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  71  84  61  74 /  70  50  60  90  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  69  81  59  71 /  70  20  50  80  70
Stinson Muni Airport           82  70  81  60  71 /  60  20  60  80  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening
for Blanco-Burnet-Gillespie-Hays-Llano-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Aviation...YB
Short-Term/Long-Term...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
340 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-090845-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
340 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

An enhanced to slight risk of severe storms is forecast across
much of South Central Texas today into tonight with a potential
of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even isolated
tornadoes. In addition, repeat storms moving over the same areas
could lead to heavy rains and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch
is in effect for the eastern Hill Country into the Austin Metro
area from 10 AM through 7 PM today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday through
Tuesday. The threat for heavy rains and flooding is elevated with
strong to severe storms also possible. The highest threats are on
Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any severe weather or flooding to the National Weather
Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
413 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

TXZ185-203-080945-
Uvalde TX-Real TX-
413 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UVALDE AND
SOUTHEASTERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 412 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Reagan Wells, or 13 miles southwest of Leakey, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leakey, Reagan Wells, Concan, Tuff, Garner State Park and Rio Frio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9966 2968 9960 2963 9960 2962 9959
      2946 9954 2946 9992 2962 10002
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 244DEG 30KT 2958 9990

CP