Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

657 
WWUS54 KEWX 040045
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
745 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXC271-463-040054-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-190504T0100Z/
Kinney TX-Uvalde TX-
745 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KINNEY AND
NORTHWESTERN UVALDE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2943 10025 2961 10021 2961 9955 2916 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 312DEG 21KT 2950 9990 

$$

CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm complex near AUS is expected to begin propagating
towards SAT/SSF by 02Z with heavy rainfall associated with this
complex producing IFR/MVFR visibilities and ceilings through 08Z
before it clears Interstate 35. Stronger cells may be able to produce
wind gusts near 40 knots. Stray TSRA may skirt DRT but will handle
impacts with amendments as confidence was not high enough to maintain
a TEMPO based on latest radar presentation.

Once the line exits to the east with the passage of an associated
mid-level trough axis now over West Central Texas, have trended
ceilings close to HRRR output with VFR ceilings prevailing through
the end of the period. May see a few MVFR ceilings attempt to develop
at all of the terminals closer to sunrise as southerly low level
winds persist behind this system, but veering winds should clear out
any ceilings that develop mid to late morning Saturday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds will become northeasterly 5-10 knots during
the day Saturday for AUS/SAT/SSF and southeast around 10 knots for
DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

UPDATE...
Quick update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127 that has been issued
for the entire South Central Texas area. Strong to Severe
thunderstorms are already ongoing across the Edwards Plateau in
Northern Val Verde County and across Northern Kendall/SE Gillespie
Counties. This activity will gradually move east and southeast
through the evening and into the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
We'll take "All Scales of Motion" for $500 today across South
Central Texas. Fortunately, the variety of forcings from local and
low (boundaries) to region-wide and high (shortwave trough and jet
streak exit region) have dissipated into the background regime or are
consistent enough to settle into a climatologically-favorable
morphology for this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The 12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF and more recent TTech WRF/HRRR/HREF runs are in general
agreement with that evolution, from isolated to scattered storms
moving from West Texas and Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon, to an eventual merging of cold pools and an MCS rolling
though the southeastern 1/2 of the area. Some supercells are
possible through early evening before the cold pools merge.

The greatest severe threat will be damaging wind, with lesser threat
of large hail and a very small chance for a tornado or two. The
prime severe threat area will be near supercells along the Rio Grande
through about 7-8 pm, then transitioning to along and east of I-35 by
10-11 pm. Of special concern area is along and south of U.S. 90 from
Uvalde to San Antonio to Gonzales, where the models indicate the
highest damaging wind threat. Rainfall amounts will be spotty in the
west, from 1/10 inch up to one inch. Locations in the middle should
see 1/4 to one inch, and locations along and east of I-35 1 to 2
inches. A few spots east of I-35 may see up to 4 inches. Some minor
flash flooding is possible due to the rain/runoff from storms earlier
today, in addition to the storms expected tonight.

The good news is the shortwave trough will move east and a rapid
clearing/drying trend from west to east will occur on Saturday. Rain
should be over by midday except for all but the far eastern coastal
plains, and rain should end there by mid-afternoon. Some fog is
likely late Saturday night along and east of I-35, but that will be
addressed by later forecasts when the clearing trend and near-ground
wetness after the rain are more evident.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Sunday is the day for outdoor activity for the next week, with low-
amplitude ridging is over the area. Temperatures will be seasonal and
relative humidity fairly low after daytime heating dissipates
morning fog.

The longwave pattern will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms and heavy rain as next week progresses, with a large and
digging western U.S. trough, and a strengthening Jet Stream across
northern Mexico and into Texas. Shortwave troughs will eject out of
the longwave trough every 24-36 hours to provide the primary lift. At
this time, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday appear to be the days with
the best chances for rain. The chances for severe storms will
increase for Wednesday and Friday as the shortwave troughs are deeper
and the boundary layer has more time to moisten and increase
instability. Friday is of the highest concern, as a cold front
appears to stall from west to east across our area. Diffluent
1000-500 mb thickness over our area points to slow-moving, stalling,
or possibly even back-building convection. Combined with echo
training along the front, that is a recipe for very heavy rain and
significant flash and river flooding. While at this forecast range
details are variable and fuzzy, pay attention to the how the forecast
evolves through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  64  80  62  83 /  50  70  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78  64  80  61  83 /  50  70  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  64  80  61  83 /  40  80  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            78  61  78  60  81 /  60  60  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  64  85  65  85 /  70  60  10   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  63  79  60  83 /  60  70  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             80  63  83  62  85 /  40  80  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        78  64  80  61  83 /  50  80  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  66  82  63  85 /  60  80  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  64  81  63  84 /  40  60  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79  65  81  63  84 /  40  70  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-042145-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for the entire South
Central Texas area through 11 pm tonight. There is a slight risk
of severe storms for most of South- Central Texas today into
tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats,
however, isolated tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches could lead to minor flooding, especially
across areas that have received heavy rains recently.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ188-040015-
Gillespie TX-
629 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILLESPIE COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tivydale, or 11 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Stonewall, Cherry Spring, Enchanted Rock State
Natural Area, Luckenbach, Cain City, Tivydale, Doss, Willow City,
Rocky Hill, LBJ State Park, Blumenthal, Eckert, Crabapple, Albert,
Grapetown and LBJ National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3050 9859 3014 9859 3013 9917 3050 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 272DEG 21KT 3032 9905

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW HARPER             30.31N 99.26W
05/03/2019                   GILLESPIE          TX   COCORAHS

&&

CVP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
654 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ186-187-189-040045-
Kerr TX-Bandera TX-Kendall TX-
654 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BANDERA...SOUTHEASTERN
KERR AND KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 654 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Bankersmith to near Center Point to Medina.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Boerne, Comfort, Bandera, Walnut Grove, Lakehills, Camp
Verde, Bandera Falls, Old Tunnel State Park, Bankersmith, Sisterdale,
Kreutzberg, Cypress Creek, Pipe Creek, Welfare, Nelson City,
Kronkosky State Natural Area, Waring, Center Point and Hill Country
State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2986 9865 2972 9877 2956 9894 2956 9899
      2962 9898 2962 9916 2978 9946 2992 9905
      3014 9892 3014 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 275DEG 11KT 3011 9885 2992 9897 2978 9926

HUFFMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
701 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ173-192-193-040045-
Williamson TX-Bastrop TX-Travis TX-
701 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS AND NORTHERN BASTROP COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 701 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Manor, or 8 miles west of Elgin, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Pflugerville, Elgin, Austin Bergstrom Int Airport, Windemere,
Manor, West Lake Hills, Rollingwood, Coupland, Onion Creek, Camp
Swift, Wyldwood, Hornsby Bend, Sunset Valley, Webberville, Creedmoor,
Wells Branch, Cedar Hills, McKinney Falls State Park and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3042 9727 3040 9733 3034 9721 3026 9715
      3008 9777 3041 9786 3052 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 245DEG 19KT 3032 9752

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
702 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AUSTIN                  30.28N 97.75W
05/03/2019                   TRAVIS             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN THE AUSTIN
            AREA CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             LEAKEY                  29.73N 99.76W
05/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       REAL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS DEPT REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN
            LEAKEY.

&&

CVP