River Flood Warning 17, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

.AVIATION...
LIFR level clouds may briefly have CIGs at KSAT early this morning
while KSSF and KAUS remain SCT, otherwise VFR conditions prevail
today through tonight. North to northeast winds less than 10 KTs
today become variable less than 5 KTs tonight.

MVFR CIGs at KDRT this morning, become VFR this afternoon as
southeasterly winds of 5 to 10 KTs develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019/

UPDATE...
The MCS has moved off to the east and the line of thunderstorms that
formed behind it has moved to the south. All convection is now out of
our CWA. There is a small chance that showers and thunderstorms
develop around the bottom of the upper trough as it moves to the east
of our area, but it looks like those chances are lower than we
previously thought. We have updated the forecast to lower the morning
POPs over the east. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough over the entire
country with west-southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface there
was a stationary front stretched across North Texas. An MCS was
moving away from our CWA and in its wake winds were generally light
and from the east. Dewpoint temperatures were in the lower 60s. A
weak upper level ridge will begin to build across the Southern
Plains today and bring an end to our wet weather. There may be some
lingering showers across our eastern counties this morning, but
everywhere should be dry by midday. Drier air will move in for
Sunday.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Sunday night the next upper level shortwave trough will move across
Northern Mexico and turn the flow over Texas to the southwest. This
will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the western half
of our CWA. This feature will move across Texas Monday and rain
chances will continue Monday and Monday night. Tuesday a weak ridge
will move in ending convection across the west, but there will
continue to be chances for showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
half of the area. Then the longwave trough will move into the
western part of the country turning the flow over Texas back to the
southwest. This pattern will remain in place through the end of the
period. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms from
Tuesday night through the Friday. PW will at times be between 1.5 and
2 inches and locally heavy rain may be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              80  62  85  66  83 /  10   0   0   0  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  62  85  66  83 /  10   0   0   0  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  62  85  65  81 /  10   0   0  -   60
Burnet Muni Airport            77  60  83  65  80 /  10   0   0   0  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  66  87  67  83 /  10  -   -   30  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  62  85  65  83 /  10   0   0   0  40
Hondo Muni Airport             83  63  87  67  81 /  10   0   0  10  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  62  85  65  82 /  20   0   0   0  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  64  87  67  86 /  20   0   0   0  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  63  85  67  81 /  10   0   0  -   60
Stinson Muni Airport           81  64  85  67  81 /  10   0  -   -   70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
310 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-050815-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
310 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Some river flooding will continue today due to the heavy rains on
Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected Sunday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Friday. Locally heavy rains are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
330 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

TXZ218-219-040845-
Frio TX-Zavala TX-
330 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZAVALA AND
SOUTHWESTERN FRIO COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 330 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Las Vegas, or 12 miles northeast of Big Wells,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Zavala
and southwestern Frio Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2872 9950 2879 9939 2865 9926 2864 9928
      2864 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 313DEG 22KT 2869 9942

CP