River Flood Warning 8, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

490 
WGUS84 KEWX 040801
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
301 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Blanco River At Crabapple Road Affecting Blanco County
  Blanco At Blanco Affecting Blanco County
  Little Blanco River At FM 32 near Fischer Affecting Blanco and Hays Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC031-040831-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190504T1627Z/
/BAPT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
301 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Blanco River At Crabapple Road.
* At  2:45 AM Saturday the stage was 1.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested and will continue to fall. 

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  Crabapple Road     4    7    1.6   Sat 03 AM   1.6   1.2   1.2   1.1   1.1


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9853 3012 9853 3012 9844 3007 9845


$$

TXC031-040831-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190504T1938Z/
/BRBT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
301 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Blanco At Blanco.
* At  2:00 AM Saturday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  Blanco            14   18   14.0   Sat 02 AM  13.5  13.0  12.9  12.9  12.9


&&

LAT...LON 3007 9845 3012 9844 3011 9832 3005 9820
      2999 9823 3005 9834             

$$

TXC031-209-040831-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190504T1619Z/
/LBFT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
301 AM CDT Sat May 4 2019

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Little Blanco River At FM 32 near Fischer.
* At  2:45 AM Saturday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 9.4 feet and will 
  continue to fall.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
  FM 32 near Fisc    8   12    6.8   Sat 03 AM   6.7   5.9   5.8   5.8   5.7


&&

LAT...LON 2999 9834 3004 9835 3007 9826 3005 9820
      3001 9826                       

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
852 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick Update. The main concern continues to be the line of
thunderstorms from El Indio to Hondo to San Antonio to New
Braunfels, Bastrop, and Giddings. Behind the line light rain
continues. There continues to be many threats with this line mainly
strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. We
have seen numerous reports from Dripping Springs and Austin of
evacuations, water rescues, and low water crossings closed. We
continue to urge people to not travel tonight if they don't have too.
We have also seen little spin up circulations on the northern end of
the line in Bastrop County headed into Lee County and also in
Guadalupe county. The good news is that the this line will continue
to move off to the east and southeast and should clear our area by
about 3 am. Dry weather is in the forecast for tomorrow and Sunday
before more rain next week! Other than dropping counties from the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch that are now behind the line PoPs have been
adjusted to fit radar trends and hourly grids were also trended.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

AVIATION...
Thunderstorm complex near AUS is expected to begin propagating
towards SAT/SSF by 02Z with heavy rainfall associated with this
complex producing IFR/MVFR visibilities and ceilings through 08Z
before it clears Interstate 35. Stronger cells may be able to produce
wind gusts near 40 knots. Stray TSRA may skirt DRT but will handle
impacts with amendments as confidence was not high enough to maintain
a TEMPO based on latest radar presentation.

Once the line exits to the east with the passage of an associated
mid-level trough axis now over West Central Texas, have trended
ceilings close to HRRR output with VFR ceilings prevailing through
the end of the period. May see a few MVFR ceilings attempt to develop
at all of the terminals closer to sunrise as southerly low level
winds persist behind this system, but veering winds should clear out
any ceilings that develop mid to late morning Saturday. Otherwise,
light and variable winds will become northeasterly 5-10 knots during
the day Saturday for AUS/SAT/SSF and southeast around 10 knots for
DRT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

UPDATE...
Quick update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127 that has been issued
for the entire South Central Texas area. Strong to Severe
thunderstorms are already ongoing across the Edwards Plateau in
Northern Val Verde County and across Northern Kendall/SE Gillespie
Counties. This activity will gradually move east and southeast
through the evening and into the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
We'll take "All Scales of Motion" for $500 today across South
Central Texas. Fortunately, the variety of forcings from local and
low (boundaries) to region-wide and high (shortwave trough and jet
streak exit region) have dissipated into the background regime or are
consistent enough to settle into a climatologically-favorable
morphology for this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The 12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF and more recent TTech WRF/HRRR/HREF runs are in general
agreement with that evolution, from isolated to scattered storms
moving from West Texas and Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon, to an eventual merging of cold pools and an MCS rolling
though the southeastern 1/2 of the area. Some supercells are
possible through early evening before the cold pools merge.

The greatest severe threat will be damaging wind, with lesser threat
of large hail and a very small chance for a tornado or two. The
prime severe threat area will be near supercells along the Rio Grande
through about 7-8 pm, then transitioning to along and east of I-35 by
10-11 pm. Of special concern area is along and south of U.S. 90 from
Uvalde to San Antonio to Gonzales, where the models indicate the
highest damaging wind threat. Rainfall amounts will be spotty in the
west, from 1/10 inch up to one inch. Locations in the middle should
see 1/4 to one inch, and locations along and east of I-35 1 to 2
inches. A few spots east of I-35 may see up to 4 inches. Some minor
flash flooding is possible due to the rain/runoff from storms earlier
today, in addition to the storms expected tonight.

The good news is the shortwave trough will move east and a rapid
clearing/drying trend from west to east will occur on Saturday. Rain
should be over by midday except for all but the far eastern coastal
plains, and rain should end there by mid-afternoon. Some fog is
likely late Saturday night along and east of I-35, but that will be
addressed by later forecasts when the clearing trend and near-ground
wetness after the rain are more evident.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Sunday is the day for outdoor activity for the next week, with low-
amplitude ridging is over the area. Temperatures will be seasonal and
relative humidity fairly low after daytime heating dissipates
morning fog.

The longwave pattern will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms and heavy rain as next week progresses, with a large and
digging western U.S. trough, and a strengthening Jet Stream across
northern Mexico and into Texas. Shortwave troughs will eject out of
the longwave trough every 24-36 hours to provide the primary lift. At
this time, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday appear to be the days with
the best chances for rain. The chances for severe storms will
increase for Wednesday and Friday as the shortwave troughs are deeper
and the boundary layer has more time to moisten and increase
instability. Friday is of the highest concern, as a cold front
appears to stall from west to east across our area. Diffluent
1000-500 mb thickness over our area points to slow-moving, stalling,
or possibly even back-building convection. Combined with echo
training along the front, that is a recipe for very heavy rain and
significant flash and river flooding. While at this forecast range
details are variable and fuzzy, pay attention to the how the forecast
evolves through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              80  64  80  62  83 /  50  70  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  62  80  61  83 /  50  70  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  64  80  61  83 /  40  70  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77  61  78  60  81 /  60  60  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  64  85  65  85 /  70  40  10   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  63  79  60  83 /  60  70  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             81  64  83  62  85 /  40  60  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  64  80  61  83 /  50  70  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  66  82  63  85 /  60  80  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  64  81  63  84 /  40  70  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           82  66  81  63  84 /  40  80  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-042145-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for the entire South
Central Texas area through 11 pm tonight. There is a slight risk
of severe storms for most of South- Central Texas today into
tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats,
however, isolated tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches could lead to minor flooding, especially
across areas that have received heavy rains recently.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
756 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SE CONCAN             29.45N 99.66W
05/03/2019  E60 MPH          UVALDE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH
            WIND GUSTS AND REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
843 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SW HENLY              30.12N 98.30W
05/03/2019                   BLANCO             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RM 165 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

CVP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
844 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ204-205-207-218>223-040230-
Guadalupe TX-Frio TX-Karnes TX-Bexar TX-Atascosa TX-Gonzales TX-
Medina TX-Zavala TX-Wilson TX-
844 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MEDINA...SOUTHWESTERN
GUADALUPE...NORTHERN KARNES...NORTHEASTERN ZAVALA...FRIO...
SOUTHWESTERN GONZALES...ATASCOSA...WILSON AND BEXAR COUNTIES UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

At 843 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Zuehl to near Somerset to near Biry to near
Batesville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, Schertz, Cibolo, Universal City, Live Oak, Pleasanton,
Pearsall, Hondo, Floresville, Devine, Jourdanton, Dilley, Poteet,
Castroville, Poth, Charlotte, Stockdale, Christine, Kosciusko and
Randolph AFB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2896 9956 2932 9920 2958 9823 2922 9747
      2864 9859 2864 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 290DEG 31KT 2952 9814 2928 9865 2927 9901 2897
9952

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
848 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CAMP SWIFT         30.20N 97.30W
05/03/2019                   BASTROP            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOFS BLOWN OFF OF HOMES AT RIVER CHASE
            MOBILE HOME PARK.

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
857 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     HAIL             3 SSW LINCOLN           30.25N 96.99W
05/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       LEE                TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
902 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW BULVERDE          29.79N 98.47W
05/03/2019                   COMAL              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO SH 46 JUST WEST
            OF SPRING BRANCH ROAD. TIME OF EVENT
            ESTIMATED WITH RADAR.

&&

CVP