Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
328 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Confidence: Medium to High

Main concern in the first period is the ongoing convection.  Storms
pulsing up with instability and given lack of shear have been
favoring wind over hail for the moment.  Weak boundary over northern
and northeast Iowa continues to focus slow moving storms. Other
concerns include brief funnel/spin up or localized flash flooding
due to slow movement.  To the west of the area in eastern Nebraska,
a remnant MCV is drifting east into Iowa as well.  HIres models had
indicated that this would refire more convection in conjunction with
with the ongoing current convection this afternoon.  Will monitor
through the evening hours as airmass remains primed for some severe
and localized heavy rainfall. After sunset, convection will likely
quiet down through 06z and be east of the region between 06z and 12z
Sunday.  Of the 3 synoptic models, the Euro hangs on to the trough
the longest on Sunday over portions of eastern Iowa. This may result
in a brief shower or two, but for now will leave forecast dry.
Lows tonight will remain in the upper 50s/lower 60s north and in
the mid 60s over the south. Sunday will see afternoon readings in
the mid 70s north to the lower 80s in the south. A weak ridge of
high pressure will drop south into Iowa Sunday night into early
Monday. Lows will remain on the mild side, but generally a few
degrees cooler in the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Saturday/
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Confidence: Medium

The early portion of the week will begin on a quiet note, though
already by Monday afternoon the next approaching trough may spread
some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms into the western
third of the area.  Highs will be just below seasonal norms Monday
and back in the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south. From Tuesday
into Wednesday, a slow moving wave will track over the region and
continue chances for showers and thunderstorms. The Euro continues
to track the surface low across northern Missouri while the GFS has
it tracking over Iowa. This will have some impact on rainfall
amounts and also the scope of rain chances. The remainder of the
week will feature a zonal flow with continued energy rippling
through the pattern. This will result in nearly daily chances for
some precipitation.  Though the mid to late week systems look rather
insignificant, the Friday through Sunday system is more robust. This
should increase chances for stronger storms and bring a potential
for more widespread rains.  Highs through the period from Tuesday
through Saturday will remain range-bound from the mid 70s to lower
80s and be highly dependent upon day to day rain coverage. Any
chances for stronger to severe storms should hold off until late in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Weak boundary situated over central/eastern sections aiding in
development of iso thunder at 17z and expect some convection to
pop and recycle through mid afternoon. More organized convection
expected aft 22z over central/northwest areas as larger portion of
the region realizes CAPE release. Have mainly VCTS/VCSH for now
but will monitor for potential better timing of categorical
chances. Winds rather light except near convection. MVFR/IFR cigs
move into northeast sections at KMCW/KALO/KFOD from 12-18z Sunday
as southern sites KDSM/KOTM generally VFR through period. /rev

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
336 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-162045-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
336 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through mid evening.
The main threats are lightning, large hail, damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado may also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Friday. At this time,
the predictability of severe weather is too low; although toward
Friday some of the storms may be approaching severe limits.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
215 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N STEAMBOAT ROCK      42.45N 93.06W
06/15/2019  M49 MPH          HARDIN             IA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RSBI4 3 N STEAMBOAT ROCK.

&&

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
225 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S ELDORA              42.31N 93.09W
06/15/2019  M50 MPH          HARDIN             IA   MESONET

            CWOP SITE - KIAELDOR7.

&&

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELDORA                  42.36N 93.10W
06/15/2019                   HARDIN             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN ELDORA.

&&

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
303 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE FONDA             42.63N 94.81W
06/15/2019  M55 MPH          POCAHONTAS         IA   MESONET

            CWOP SITE - KIAFONDA2.

&&

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S WHITTEN             42.24N 93.01W
06/15/2019                   HARDIN             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF SOME ROADS WASHED OUT NEAR GRUNDY
            HARDING CO LINE AS WELL AS SOME ROADS WASHED
            OUT NEAR OWASA IN NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY.

&&

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
419 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE DAWSON            41.83N 94.17W
06/15/2019  M48 MPH          DALLAS             IA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KPRO PERRY AIRPORT.

&&

FOWLE