Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Still mainly clear across SW KS as of midnight, but that will not
be lasting much longer. Widespread stratus will develop by sunrise
Thursday, along with areas of drizzle/fog, in response to
warm/moist advection north of a stationary surface boundary to our
south. Indications are the stratus will hold for most locations
most of the day, with any penetration of the warm sector airmass
restricted to areas well southeast of Dodge City. The location of
the frontal boundary will be critical with respect to convective
mode/severity through today. A strong closed low near the Grand
Canyon at sunrise this morning will lift north into Wyoming this
evening, and a strong embedded shortwave will eject just to the
west of SW KS through this evening as this occurs. Dynamic lift
will increase strongly today, and in response numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop during the daylight hours. Kept pop
grids very high, in the likely/definite category. 00z NAM keeps
any surface-based instability restricted to the far SE zones this
afternoon, with high SBCAPE near Kiowa in Barber county and points
south. With strong shear amid continued SW flow aloft, this is
where severe thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon. More
widespread severe weather is expected across NW Oklahoma into SE
KS. Through the afternoon hours, 00z NAM does allow elevated
MUCAPE to near 2000 J/kg about as far north as the Dodge City
vicinity. As such, stronger thunderstorms will produce marginally
severe hail. Clouds and rainfall will work to hold temperatures
well below normal north of the frontal boundary today, and for the
northern/central zones, followed the cooler 00z NAM/MET guidance.
Northern zones will hold in the 50s, with 70s restricted to the
far SE zones. NE winds will prevail through the day at 15-25 mph.

Will allow the flash flood watch to continue for the SE zones
through tonight. Models continue to line up the heaviest rainfall
across these areas. The latest HRRR iterations are the most
concerning, showing multiple rounds of convection and heavy rain
for Barber county and vicinity, this afternoon through Friday
morning. 00z NAM increases precipitable water to near 2 inches
across the SE counties this evening, and QPF grids show widespread
2 inch rainfall amounts. These amounts will likely prove
conservative where training occurs. Soils are already saturated,
and will need to watch the flooding threat closely for the SE
zones carefully through tonight.

Increased sunshine and the return of south winds will bring much
warmer temperatures on Friday, as the parent upper low lifts north
into Canada. Afternoon temperatures will bounce right back to the
upper 70s, with lower 80s across the SW zones. The trailing
frontal boundary will linger near the SE zones, where pops were
retained, especially for the afternoon hours. Models show the
strongest instability south and east of Barber county Friday
afternoon, but will need to continue to monitor flooding in these
SE zones.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Traditional Memorial Day weekend weather is expected Saturday and
Sunday, in that we are expecting afternoon/evening thunderstorm
potential both days. SW flow aloft is maintained both days,
between persistent troughing over the Great Basin and the
sprawling subtropical high over the SE U.S. As such, the lee
trough/dryline will remain established, gulf moisture will remain
available, and wind shear will remain strong. Per SPC Day 3
outlook for Saturday, scattered supercells are expected in the
warm sector. Pop grids are highest Saturday evening, when large
hail/damaging winds are possible.

Severe thunderstorms appear likely again Sunday afternoon and
evening, with the synoptic pattern changing little and instability
easily reestablishing by afternoon. With enhanced synoptic
support, 00z ECMWF would suggest more robust convective
development Sunday, with a distinct tornado threat across SW KS.
Memorial Day weekend is the statistical peak of the SW KS tornado
season, and this will have to be watched carefully.

Both Saturday and Sunday, heavy rain potential will continue to
exacerbate the contined flash flood threat in south central
Kansas.

00z ECMWF places a strong 552 dm closed low near Las Vegas
Memorial Day morning, and gradually ejects it NE to SE Wyoming
through late Tuesday. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s
with strong SW winds Memorial Day, with a break in convective
potential expected. As the upper low ejects into the central
plains on Tuesday, the accompanying cold front will bring a
NWly wind shift and noticeably cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites through 06z as
an upper level disturbance and warm front approach. CIGS north of
the front in the moist upslope flow will remain IFR to MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  77  61 / 100  80  20  30
GCK  58  47  79  57 /  90  60  10  20
EHA  62  47  79  57 /  40  20  10  10
LBL  62  52  77  59 /  90  50  20  30
HYS  63  55  78  61 /  80  80  20  30
P28  75  65  78  64 / 100  90  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ066-079>081-
088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
317 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019 /217 AM MDT Thu May 23 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall is likely, with the threat of flooding highest
across the southeast zones. Some storms this afternoon through
this evening will be strong to severe, with the primary threat
being large hail. Across the far southeast zones, including Meade,
Clark, Comanche and Barber counties, a tornado risk will exist
this afternoon and evening if warmer more humid air can move into
Kansas. Currently, the tornado threat is expected to remain
mainly just to the south of Kansas.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to favor the
southeast zones Friday, and area wide Saturday and Sunday. On each
of these days, the flooding risk will continue. Thunderstorms both
Saturday and Sunday will be capable of large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be required this afternoon and
tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             6 NW LIBERAL            37.11N 101.00W
05/23/2019  E2.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   PUBLIC

            THIS WAS A SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1232 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     HAIL             6 WNW LIBERAL           37.07N 101.03W
05/23/2019  E2.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   PUBLIC

            THIS REPORT WAS FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

LEE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
110 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ076-077-086-087-231900-
Gray KS-Seward KS-Meade KS-Haskell KS-
110 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...
NORTHWESTERN MEADE...EASTERN STEVENS...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHERN
HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Liberal, moving north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Sublette, Satanta, Copeland and Tice.

LAT...LON 3739 10107 3739 10109 3757 10109 3754 10057
      3700 10086 3700 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 196DEG 40KT 3704 10098

HOVORKA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
115 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ044-045-063-231900-
Finney KS-Lane KS-Ness KS-
115 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FINNEY...
NORTHWESTERN NESS AND LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Dighton, moving north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dighton, Utica, Alamota, Healy, Pendennis, Amy and Shields.

LAT...LON 3869 10006 3822 10038 3816 10060 3870 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 196DEG 40KT 3825 10047

HOVORKA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ063-076-077-231945-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Haskell KS-
150 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FINNEY...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND EASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 150 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Sublette, moving north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette, Pierceville, Charleston, Tice and Plymell.

LAT...LON 3744 10073 3742 10092 3793 10098 3795 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 200DEG 37KT 3746 10082

HOVORKA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
208 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ030-231945-
Trego KS-
208 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TREGO COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Utica, moving north at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Collyer and Voda.

LAT...LON 3870 10003 3870 10015 3913 10015 3913 9994
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 189DEG 41KT 3875 10019

HOVORKA