Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Flood watch remains in effect for the southeast half or so of the
forecast area, through Wednesday afternoon. In the near term, all
convective allowing models continue with different spatial
versions of thunderstorm clusters developing along either the
both the dryline and the surface synoptic boundary late in the
day (likely by 6 pm) and congealing into larger clusters while
spreading east into central and south central Kansas. Expecting
additional severe weather as well though the evening with
significant hail threat, as well as isolated tornado and wind with
greatest focus near the frontal boundary (Garden city to Rush
county and south to the Highway 400 corridor. Expect convection to
persist beyond midnight into the early morning hours especially
in south central Kansas counties as the severe threat, (but not
heavy rain) weakens.

Severe convection chances look relatively high again for Tuesday as
the models suggest not enough push southward of the boundary to
get all of southwest Kansas out of the warm sector. By Tuesday we
will have a strong upper vortex moving though the desert southwest
states, while the 850mb from appears to shift slightly northward
during the day, developing a surface low near the panhandles/Elkhart
area by the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

By Wednesday, the front should move south of the region and
bringing a haul of cooler air over the entire area for the
remainder of the week. Stable high pressure settling across the
area Thursday and Friday, resulting in cooler temperatures will
eventually begin to slow recover as return winds develop int
saturday, and showers and thunderstorm chances begin to return to
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Thunderstorms will develop across much of southwest and central
Kansas later this evening, potentially affecting all terminals
with gusty outflow winds and low vsbys due to periods of heavy
rainfall. Meanwhile, low level stratus will continue to develop
along and behind a frontal boundary as it pushes slowly south
across western and central Kansas. Ongoing MVFR cigs at KHYS will
persist through this evening with IFR cigs possible generally
after 03Z as the stratus deck lowers overnight. MVFR, and
eventually IFR cigs, are expected to develop in the vicinity of
KGCK and KDDC later tonight with KLBL possibly affected toward
daybreak Tuesday morning.

Southerly winds 10 to 20kt will persist through mid/late evening
south of a near stationary frontal boundary extending across
southwest and central Kansas while northeast winds 10 to 20kt
prevail north of the boundary. The boundary is projected to begin
shifting southward overnight turning winds northeasterly 10 to
20kt across the remainder of southwest and central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  67  55  69 /  70  70  80  30
GCK  51  63  50  63 /  70  60  70  40
EHA  52  68  50  64 /  30  50  50  20
LBL  55  70  53  68 /  40  70  70  20
HYS  49  59  51  62 /  90  70  80  60
P28  58  75  58  75 /  60  70  80  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ046-064>066-
078>081-087>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
435 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070945-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
435 AM CDT Mon May 6 2019 /335 AM MDT Mon May 6 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early
tonight across southwest and south central Kansas. Baseball size
hail and wind gusts of 60 mph will be possible with some of these
storms. A few tornadoes will also be possible.

Periods of heavy rainfall from these storms overnight may result
in ponding of water on roadways or poor drainage areas. Localize
flash flooding can not be ruled out.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
southwest and central Kansas Tuesday and Wednesday. Large hail,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats with
the strongest storms. Tornadoes may be possible as well.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be required after 3 pm across southwest
and south central Kansas.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
740 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ043-063-070130-
Finney KS-Scott KS-
740 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 739 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Friend, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Shallow Water, Grigston and Friend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for southwestern
and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3813 10073 3820 10100 3854 10100 3853 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 185DEG 19KT 3828 10088

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
822 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             LARNED                  38.19N 99.10W
05/06/2019  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
825 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S SYRACUSE            37.86N 101.76W
05/06/2019  E60 MPH          HAMILTON           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
837 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             1 SW LARNED             38.18N 99.11W
05/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
925 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             ELKHART                 37.00N 101.89W
05/06/2019  M1.00 INCH       MORTON             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
939 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             2 NW INGALLS            37.84N 100.48W
05/06/2019  M1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RB