Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Morning low clouds continue to move through central Kansas with a
departing upper level trough and sun has broke out over eastern
Colorado and western Kansas. A shortwave is moving through eastern
Colorado into western Kansas and will be the focus for the chance
of an isolated storm or two late this afternoon into the evening.
Latest models indicate an instability axis between Garden City and
Dodge of CAPE values in the 1500 range with bulk shears values in
the 35 kt range. As the shortwave moves through a weak cold front
should be enough to lift the airmass to produce the isolated
strong to marginally severe storm with hail up to quarters and
wind gusts over 50 mph. This activity should die off shortly
after sunset and the rest of the evening will be quiet with lows
in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday through the day the upper level winds start switching to
a southwest direction allowing drier air to move into western
Kansas as dewpoints are forecast to lower throughout the day.
Given the unusually wet ground across much of Kansas went a
couple degrees below model guidance due to the ground having
plenty of moisture to evaporate with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. Another weak frontal boundary across southwest Kansas
combining with an upcoming shortwave from eastern Colorado
bringing in a dryline may be enough lift to develop some isolated
storms late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Another round of convection is expected to develop Thursday night
in northwest Kansas as another shortwave moves in from northeast
Colorado. This area of convection should continue eastward along
mainly the I-70 corridor through the overnight before exiting by
sunrise Friday morning.

Friday most models are still trending warmer than what I
personally think will happen. Most models want a high 90s and low
100s solution but given the unusually moist ground for June even
if the dry air aloft comes in evaporation from the soil moisture
should keep high temperatures more in the mid 90s range. Given how
cool we've been this year it still could be the warmest
temperatures we've experienced so far this season.

Saturday a cold front moves into western Kansas and now models
want to stall out the boundary and perhaps lift back to the north
as a warm front. A closed upper low in Wyoming will rotate a
strong shortwave into southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas
which could produce an afternoon round of storms along the front.
Overnight convection coming in from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas could produce a round 2 scenario for Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Given the strength of the forecast upper low and
shortwave...this appears to be our next chance of perhaps a more
widespread severe weather scenario.

The upper level trough will slowly move out of the central plains
Monday and we may finally have the start of a ridging pattern with
drier weather from Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with skies becoming mostly
clear. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  90  66  95 /  10  20  10   0
GCK  60  90  63  93 /  10  20  10   0
EHA  62  92  62  94 /  10  20  10   0
LBL  63  93  64  95 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  88  67  90 /  10  20  30  10
P28  63  91  68  97 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
526 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
526 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 /426 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm or two will
develop across far west central or northwest Kansas later this
afternoon. The probability of severe weather over any one
location, however, is very low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance for severe thunderstorm development along a
stalled out front late Thursday, but the better chance for more
organized severe thunderstorms across the southwest Kansas region
will be Saturday and perhaps into Sunday ahead of the next large
scale storm system. Ahead of this storm system on Friday, very hot
temperatures will likely develop south of the Arkansas River with
highs approaching or reaching 100 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
506 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW SPEARVILLE         37.88N 99.81W
06/19/2019  E60 MPH          FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             2 NNE DODGE CITY        37.79N 100.01W
06/19/2019  M1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
533 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             6 N MINNEOLA            37.53N 100.02W
06/19/2019  E2.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             7 N MINNEOLA            37.55N 100.02W
06/19/2019  E3.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             4 NNW ENSIGN            37.71N 100.27W
06/19/2019  M1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             1 WSW GREENSBURG        37.60N 99.30W
06/19/2019  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&