Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
207 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Morning low clouds continue to move through central Kansas with a
departing upper level trough and sun has broke out over eastern
Colorado and western Kansas. A shortwave is moving through eastern
Colorado into western Kansas and will be the focus for the chance
of an isolated storm or two late this afternoon into the evening.
Latest models indicate an instability axis between Garden City and
Dodge of CAPE values in the 1500 range with bulk shears values in
the 35 kt range. As the shortwave moves through a weak cold front
should be enough to lift the airmass to produce the isolated
strong to marginally severe storm with hail up to quarters and
wind gusts over 50 mph. This activity should die off shortly
after sunset and the rest of the evening will be quiet with lows
in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday through the day the upper level winds start switching to
a southwest direction allowing drier air to move into western
Kansas as dewpoints are forecast to lower throughout the day.
Given the unusually wet ground across much of Kansas went a
couple degrees below model guidance due to the ground having
plenty of moisture to evaporate with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. Another weak frontal boundary across southwest Kansas
combining with an upcoming shortwave from eastern Colorado
bringing in a dryline may be enough lift to develop some isolated
storms late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Another round of convection is expected to develop Thursday night
in northwest Kansas as another shortwave moves in from northeast
Colorado. This area of convection should continue eastward along
mainly the I-70 corridor through the overnight before exiting by
sunrise Friday morning.

Friday most models are still trending warmer than what I
personally think will happen. Most models want a high 90s and low
100s solution but given the unusually moist ground for June even
if the dry air aloft comes in evaporation from the soil moisture
should keep high temperatures more in the mid 90s range. Given how
cool we've been this year it still could be the warmest
temperatures we've experienced so far this season.

Saturday a cold front moves into western Kansas and now models
want to stall out the boundary and perhaps lift back to the north
as a warm front. A closed upper low in Wyoming will rotate a
strong shortwave into southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas
which could produce an afternoon round of storms along the front.
Overnight convection coming in from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas could produce a round 2 scenario for Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Given the strength of the forecast upper low and
shortwave...this appears to be our next chance of perhaps a more
widespread severe weather scenario.

The upper level trough will slowly move out of the central plains
Monday and we may finally have the start of a ridging pattern with
drier weather from Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Low clouds in the region will continue to break through the
afternoon leading MVFR conditions to turn VFR between 20Z through
00Z and stay VFR through the rest of the time period. A shortwave
moving through western Kansas combining with a stationary front
could lead to an isolated storm or two affecting near GCK and DDC
between 21Z-02Z. However due to the isolated nature of storm
development kept it out of the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  60  90  66 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  82  60  90  63 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  83  62  92  62 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  84  63  93  64 /  10  20   0   0
HYS  76  60  88  67 /  20  20  20  20
P28  82  63  91  68 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
526 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
526 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 /426 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm or two will
develop across far west central or northwest Kansas later this
afternoon. The probability of severe weather over any one
location, however, is very low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance for severe thunderstorm development along a
stalled out front late Thursday, but the better chance for more
organized severe thunderstorms across the southwest Kansas region
will be Saturday and perhaps into Sunday ahead of the next large
scale storm system. Ahead of this storm system on Friday, very hot
temperatures will likely develop south of the Arkansas River with
highs approaching or reaching 100 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KSZ030-045-192130-
Trego KS-Ness KS-
348 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NESS AND
SOUTHWESTERN TREGO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arnold, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Spotters at Arnold have reported nickel size hail at 3:40 PM CDT.

Locations impacted include...
Ransom and Arnold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 10018 3873 9999 3855 9978 3840 10002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 324DEG 25KT 3861 10003

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KSZ045-064-192145-
Hodgeman KS-Ness KS-
353 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NESS AND WESTERN
HODGEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 353 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Jetmore, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 10022 3831 10008 3819 9975 3796 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 308DEG 10KT 3820 10008

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KSZ063-064-077-192130-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-
354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN
HODGEMAN AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kalvesta, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kalvesta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 10030 3812 10034 3813 10017 3795 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 261DEG 29KT 3805 10023

TURNER

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KSZ064-077-078-192200-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
427 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...SOUTHWESTERN
HODGEMAN AND EAST CENTRAL GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Howell, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City and Howell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 10029 3796 10021 3783 9988 3763 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 307DEG 26KT 3785 10020

TURNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             JETMORE                 38.08N 99.89W
06/19/2019  E1.00 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&