Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
135 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crossing the region will bring strong to
severe thunderstorms to the area today. Much cooler air will
move into the area behind the front Saturday with temperatures
moderating Sunday into the middle of next week as high pressure
resides over the region. The next chance of showers will be
Wednesday and Thursday as a weak front nears the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highly amplified pattern with an upper low cutting off over the
lower Mississippi Valley today. A surface cold front is
currently moving through Georgia, and will push across south
Carolina this evening. The squall line has moved through the
CSRA, and will continue east across the Midlands through the
afternoon. Strong instability and shear have contributed to an
enhanced risk for severe weather, especially as the line moves
into the eastern half of the Midlands. The squall line will
likely will be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
wind gusts, and even brief tornadoes. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Tornado Watch through 6 PM. The threat for
severe weather will end this evening as the squall line moves
east of the area. However, showers with embedded thunderstorms
could remain possible through the night as the upper low moves
into the region.

A strong pressure gradient over the region will bring windy
conditions, and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through
midnight.

High temperatures have likely already been reached today, and
significant cloud cover will limit further heating. Temperatures
will fall overnight, with morning lows expected to be in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the region this weekend bringing
cooler and drier conditions. An upper low pulling away from the area
will provide cold air aloft especially across north and
northwest SC through Saturday. Diurnal heating and lingering
moisture may be enough for an isolated shower so have mention of
slight chance pops northwest areas. Breezy conditions will
persist through early Saturday evening before the pressure
gradient begins to relax. Below normal temperatures early in the
period, moderating Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF and GFS models forecast high pressure across the region
through Wednesday with temperatures continuing to warm each day.
This will keep dry conditions in place with mostly clear skies
through mid week. By Thursday, the GFS model hints at a positive
tilted trof moving into the region...the 19/00z ECMWF run shows this
as a stronger feature. Moisture will be questionable by mid week and
current forecast keeps pops just under the slight chance threshold.
Temperatures through the long term will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread MVFR cigs affecting the TAF sites as showers and
thunderstorms move in ahead of a cold front. Gusty winds have
also developed and will continue through the end of the TAF
period.

A line of showers and thunderstorms has moved through AGS/DNL,
and will impact CAE/CUB and OGB through 21Z. Strong wind shear
will be associated with the front supporting a few organized
thunderstorms. There will be possibility of damaging winds, and
isolated hail and tornadoes, but at this time there is low
confidence that there will be any significant impact at the
terminals. Behind this initial band of convect, convergence
near the front and cooling aloft supports a continued shower
chance through at least this afternoon. Showers are also
possible again on Saturday, but not enough confidence in the
forecast coverage to include mention at this time.

May see some improvement in cigs this evening once the cold
front moves east, however convergence and low level moisture
associated with the upper level low may continue MVFR cigs
through the night. VFR conditions should return by Saturday
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Strong and gusty winds will
continue into Saturday evening. The next chance for rain and
restrictions is Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
422 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
200830-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
422 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.

A strong cold front will cross the area today. Severe thunderstorms
producing damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible
ahead of the front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
440 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ064-065-SCZ020-025-026-030-192130-
Richmond GA-Columbia GA-Aiken SC-Newberry SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
440 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...Showers with Strong Winds from just north of Augusta Northward to
Saluda and Newberry Areas...

At 436 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
showers with strong winds and heavy downpours extending from just
north of Augusta northward through eastern Edgefield County and into
Saluda and Newberry counties. Movement was northeast near 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Gusty winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include... Newberry,
Batesburg-Leesville, Belvedere, Martinez, Edgefield, Saluda,
Johnston, Whitmire, Prosperity, Ridge Spring, Edgefield County
Airport, Saluda County Airport, Newberry College, Newberry County
Airport, Monetta, Trenton and Pomaria.

LAT...LON 3445 8171 3453 8164 3453 8162 3449 8157
      3445 8154 3449 8149 3449 8146 3450 8144
      3430 8138 3364 8169 3345 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 228DEG 28KT 3417 8166 3348 8198