Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
459 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
weekend as weak systems move east across the region, but there will
be plenty of dry time as well. Meanwhile, the airmass will slowly
warm with increasing humidity levels.  The warmth will last into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 455 pm...area radars showed mostly scattered to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms across western and central
New York...while to our immediate west a broken line of
convection continues to lift northeastward across the Niagara
Peninsula. Meanwhile...the North Country remains largely dry and
quiet as of this writing.

The above convection is being supported by a moderately unstable
environment featuring MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg...and areas of
enhanced low level convergence provided by a broad/weak surface
trough draped across our region...lake breeze boundaries...and a
slow-moving mesolow/MCV over east-central Lake Erie. For the late
afternoon and early evening hours...the main forecast concerns with
this convection will continue to be for locally heavy rainfall given
PWATs of around 1.5 inches and a potential for training cells...as
well as for a low-end severe weather threat due to the above
mentioned level of instability. By later on this evening...
convection should be decreasing in coverage and shifting eastward
into central and eastern New York with diminishing heating and
further eastward progress of the main surface trough.

On Saturday, another shortwave trough will be quickly approaching
the region.  This feature can be traced a jet max responsible for a
few shortwave troughs NE/SD.  The fact that there's two areas of
upper level rotation there lower confidence timing and overall
evolution of convection for Saturday.  High res runs bear this
problem out with a variety of solutions due to the relatively fast
zonal flow aloft. Overall though, expect one or several rounds of
convection.  There may be one line moving across WNY before or by
noon, but there is more confidence for more typical lake-breeze
induced convection in the afternoon, leading to an overall likelihood
for convection at some point during the day for most if not all of
WNY, moving east into CNY by late afternoon and/or early evening.

Temperatures will be on the slow increase with slowly increasing
humidity levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast area is generally squashed between two dominating
synoptic scale features at their latitudes: a sprawling anti-cyclone
over the southwestern US and an intensifying Hudson Bay upper low to
our north. This leaves a predominantly zonal high speed upper flow
over our area. In this flow, several successive short waves are set
to slide by, each harnessing ample moisture and instability in the
low levels feeding northward to produce chances of showers and
thunderstorms that key upon their precise passage during the short
term time frame. Given the positioning of the flow regime, higher
shear will be favored over the Southern Tier, especially early in
the short term, such that the best chance of enhanced convective
development lies there.

With warm advection ahead of each wave, and the likelihood that we
will be in a bit of an interstitial period for Sunday, high
temperatures should ramp up decidedly as 850 hPa temperatures make
at run at +20C. That said, the pattern really fails to evolve from
Sunday through Tuesday, and will largely similar thermal
characteristics, the timing of convective development each day and
its placement will dictate what areas make runs at afternoon highs
near 90F. At the moment, Sunday seems the best bet, but even after
then, ample humidity and a warm boundary layer will allow for no
less than mid to upper 80s in the lower spots of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest model consensus sharpens an upper level trough across
the lower Great Lakes on Wednesday, with a cold front likely to
push across the area. This will bring a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, followed by notably
cooler and drier air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected into this evening...with the
exception of brief/localized reductions to IFR/MVFR within scattered
convection along and inland of lake breeze boundaries. Mainly VFR
conditions are then expected overnight. One or two rounds of
convection are possible on Saturday, some before or well before 18Z
over WNY.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of -TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become more southerly to southwesterly through this
weekend as a warm front pushes across the Lower Great Lakes. Both
winds and waves are likely to remain below small craft thresholds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Zaff
NEAR TERM...JJR/Zaff
SHORT TERM...Fries
LONG TERM...AR/Apffel
AVIATION...JJR/Zaff
MARINE...Thomas/Zaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
507 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-170915-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
507 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a risk that thunderstorms will contain damaging winds and
large hail on Saturday.

Afternoon apparent temperatures may reach the lower 90s or higher
during the afternoon hours from Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-013-014-170915-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
507 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a small chance that thunderstorms will contain gusty winds
and small hail today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a risk that thunderstorms will contain damaging winds and
large hail on Saturday.

Afternoon apparent temperatures may reach the lower 90s or higher
during the afternoon hours from Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-170915-
Jefferson-Lewis-
507 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a small chance that thunderstorms will contain gusty winds
and small hail today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a risk that thunderstorms will contain damaging winds and
large hail on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-170915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
507 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a risk that thunderstorms will contain damaging winds and
large hail on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-SLZ022-024-170915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
507 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a small chance that thunderstorms will contain gusty winds
and small hail today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a risk that thunderstorms will contain damaging winds and
large hail on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
622 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             LOCKPORT                43.17N  78.70W
08/16/2019  M1.00 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901465

AR

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