Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1150 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will track across New England through
tonight. Colder air will build in behind this system, with lake
effect snow developing east and southeast of the lakes tonight
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light synoptic snow this evening across Western NY will transition
to a lake effect band of snow into the overnight where it will setup
over Northern Erie County into parts of Genesee and Wyoming
counties before shifting south through the morning. Light snow
across North Central NY will transition to disorganized lake
effect early then become better organized through the morning
hours northeast of Lake Ontario. Temperatures late this evening
are in the low to mid 20s across the area.

Although cold air advection will weaken some, delta T's reach 13
degrees by Friday morning with 850mb temperatures dropping to -14C.
Satellite estimates a "warm" patch of water on Lake Erie of near 38
deg F near Long Point. Low pressure will track from Lake Superior to
Georgian Bay overnight and a cold front will move across Lake Erie.
This shift in the wind will produce a lake response with lake effect
snow showers beginning across western NY. This front will likely
produce a light snow across the region while a lake band forms on a
250-260 wind along the Lake Erie shoreline into southern Erie and
into Wyoming and Genesee counties overnight and be south of the City
of Buffalo by the Friday morning rush hour, with the northern edge
of the band producing at least light snow over parts of the Buffalo
Metro. Snow will become heavy at times with snow rates 1 in/hr with
localized amounts of up to 2 in/hr. This band will slowly move
southward into the Southtowns and extreme northern Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties through the morning. The band will likely lose
some intensity as mid-level moisture diminishes however snow will
continue.

The cold front will move east of Lake Ontario early Friday morning
and a similar wind field will move across the eastern lake producing
lake effect snow across the Tug Hill region through the morning
commute. There will be some upslope enhancement on the west side of
the Tug Hill at this time. A single lake effect band will become
organized by noontime across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties
including the Tug Hill with snow rates of 1-2 in/hr. When the front
moves through the region Friday morning, snow showers are expected
across western and north-central NY outside of the lake bands which
may produce 1-2 inches. Once the front is through by Friday
afternoon, areas along the Lake Plains, interior western NY and
southeast of Lake Ontario will get a break with possibly some breaks
of sunshine.

A secondary front will track across western and north central NY
Friday afternoon. Very cold temperatures will move into the region
with 850mb temperatures falling to -20 to -15 C Friday afternoon.
The Lake Ontario band will likely get disorganized early Friday
afternoon before redeveloping and settling in on the Tug Hill.
During this time, the southern shore of Lake Ontario will see a few
inches including portions of Rochester metro. Snow rates near 2
in/hr are likely across the Tug Hill through the afternoon. The Lake
Erie band will also slowly settle south but likely persist across
northern Chautauqua and Southern Erie into Wyoming and Genesee
Counties. It too, will have snow rates of 1 in/hr with times of 2
in/hr. Total snow accumulations will range from 12-18 inches from
Dunkirk to Alden, NY off Lake Erie and across the Tug Hill region
off Lake Ontario. The gradient for snow amounts will be tighter east
of Lake Erie and the Northtowns and interior Southern Tier will only
see 1-2 inches. Temperatures will reach the upper teens to low 20's
Friday. Winter Weather Warnings are in effect for Erie, Wyoming,
Genesee, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties and Jefferson,
Lewis and Oswego counties. The Watch was removed for Wayne and
N. Cayuga as the wind field Friday will be 260-270 which will
impact areas to the northeast. Minor accumulations expected.

Westerly winds will increase Friday with sustained winds 15 to 25
mph and gusts 30-40 mph by Friday afternoon. Higher winds are
expected along the lake shores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Two distinct bands of lake effect snow should be ongoing by Friday
evening - one east of Lake Erie and the other east of Lake Ontario.

East of Lake Erie...A single band should be bisecting Erie County in
the evening before slowly crawling a little south toward the Boston
Hills.  This puts the Southtowns directly under the band with
significant impacts for the evening commute.  While not an extreme
event in terms of duration and storm total amounts, there will still
be the potential for 2"/hr snow rates, possibly higher in the early
evening.  A well aligned flow with a cap near 7500', together with
steep lapse rates and ample moisture should allow a band to maintain
it's strength through the evening.  Although models take the band a
little further south overnight, the band may end up in a steady-
state with impacts remaining in Southern Erie County, far northern
sections of Chautauqua, and the extreme northwestern section of
Cattaraugus County.  There is a possibility that it may miss the
Southern Tier entirely and remain in and over Southern Erie County
and Western Wyoming County. Details can be found in our snow rate
and experimental lake effect polygon graphics online, which snow the
highest impact better than words and certainly better than county-
based zone areas. Saturday, the band should quickly weaken as flow
backs to the south. Storm totals may be anywhere from 6-18" with of
course far less outside lake effect areas.

East of Lake Ontario...A strong full fetch lake band should be
pummeling areas due east of the lake during the evening - south of
Watertown and north of Pulaski - directly over the Tug Hill Plateau.
Snow rates of 2"/hr are expected during the evening, with higher
rates not out of the question.  The band should move little
overnight.  Over the past day, models have made a decided shift to
the north, removing the threat of any banding over Northern Wayne
and Cayuga counties.  This area was removed from the watch and was
not included in the warning now in effect for just Eastern Lake
Ontario.  By Saturday morning, this band, similar to the one over
Lake Erie, should rapidly weaken as winds back to the south.
Watertown may get clipped by this Saturday morning, but snow rates
by this time should be rather uneventful.

Saturday night and Sunday...a weak system will be moving east across
Ontario and Quebec.  Low and mid level moisture fields never really
clear out, so there will be a chance for some light snow first with
a weak trough/"warm" front" associated with the above mentioned
parent low, then again with it's trailing cold front that will
follow late Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures aloft will still
be cold enough for some lake response too.  These types of events
typically have minimal impact, particularly on the weekend. Some
accumulations are possible though with a decent 'fluff' factor.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Throughout this period a classic coupled +PNA/-NAO pattern will
remain firmly anchored in place...with a strong upper level ridge
entrenched along or a little off the west coast of North America...
and a second upper ridge extending from the central Atlantic
northward to Greenland. These two ridges will help to lock a huge
closed low and its associated deep pool of bitterly cold air in
place over central and eastern Canada...with a large-scale cross-
polar flow also helping to continually recharge this cold air supply.
For our region...all of this will ensure that temperatures will
average out decidedly below normal right through this period and
into the beginning of February.

Digging a bit further into the forecast details...surface-based
ridging draped across our region Monday morning will slowly drift
eastward into eastern New York/western New England through the
balance of the day...while the next mid level trough and its attendant
organizing surface low push into the western Great Lakes/Lower Ohio
Valley. This will result in lingering scattered lake effect snow
showers south of the lakes Monday morning giving way to chances
for some light snow across far western New York Monday afternoon...
as warm air advection develops aloft out ahead of the next system.
Otherwise afternoon highs will mostly run in the teens.

Monday night and Tuesday the medium range guidance packages remain
in rather good agreement on the aforementioned trough/surface low
becoming increasingly better organized and tracking across our region...
with the strengthening nature of this system and degree of available
moisture/forcing supporting an increase in PoPs to the categorical
range. As for ptype...that remains more problematic with the various
guidance packages still exhibiting quite a bit of variance and lack
of any noteworthy consistency in the track of this system. A track
to our northwest (such as shown by the GFS/GEM) would allow for a
brief warmup and accompanying period of possible mixed precipitation
or even rain...while a track over or just southeast of our area would
favor the precipitation remaining mainly in the form of snow...and
thereby possibly allowing for a notable snowfall for many areas. Given
the the still-distant time frame and continued forecast uncertainty...
for now have stuck with continuity and continued to indicate all snow
for the sake of simplicity.

Regardless of this system's track...it still appears all but certain
that a surge of truly arctic air will then follow in its wake for the
remainder of this period. This will result in temperatures returning
to bitterly cold levels once again...with record cold definitely not
out of the question given current model projections of 850 mb temps
plunging to near -30 Celsius. The bitter cold will also likely be
accompanied by an extended period of rather brisk winds...which will
pose a likelihood of dangerously cold wind chills.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread MVFR conditions will continue with IFR occuring at times
late this evening with light synoptic snow across WNY. Snow will
increase in coverage late tonight as lake effect snow develops.
Mainly MVFR conditions are expected with the exception for locations
in the lake effect bands. KBUF, KIAG and KART have the best chance
of seeing IFR/LIFR conditions Friday-Friday afternoon. Westerly
winds will also increase Friday with gusts as high as 45 mph
especially downwind of the lakes Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous snow showers, with
IFR possible in more numerous snow showers east of the lakes.
Sunday and Monday...A chance of snow showers. MVFR likely.
Tuesday...Snow showers with MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will become southwest tonight and lake effect snow showers
will begin. Another cold front will cause the winds to veer out of
the west across Lake Ontario by Friday afternoon. Winds will likely
stay southwest across Lake Erie until Friday night. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Friday night for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...Zaff
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK/SW/TMA
MARINE...HSK/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

NYZ012-019-020-085-251815-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-251815-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-013-014-021-251815-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will be bands of lake effect snow meandering across the region
Friday and Friday night. Localized light to moderate accumulations
are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-251815-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will be bands of lake effect snow meandering across the region
Friday and Friday night. Localized light to moderate accumulations
are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-251815-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-251815-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-251815-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
104 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1254 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2019

NYZ010-011-250715-
Genesee-Northern Erie-
1254 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2019

...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ERIE AND
WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 1252 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 inches per hour will continue to impact the Buffalo Metro Area
and western Genesee County through 2 AM.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect
snow, producing near whiteout conditions at times. If you must
travel within this band, be prepared for severe winter driving
conditions with very low visibility and snow covered roads.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 55 and 48.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4280 7892 4284 7893 4289 7891 4292 7890
      4296 7893 4296 7896 4309 7850 4308 7850
      4308 7847 4310 7846 4312 7838 4306 7808
      4294 7822 4275 7900

Hitchcock