Small Craft Advisory 90, NWS Buffalo, NY

986 
WHUS71 KBUF 011629
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1229 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

LOZ044-045-063>065-012100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-191101T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1229 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. The
Storm Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...14 to 18 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-012200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191101T2200Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1229 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 6 PM EDT this evening. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-012100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1229 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-012100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1229 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-012100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1229 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-020030-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1229 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

189 
WHUS71 KBUF 012049
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

LOZ042-020000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-020300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 11 PM EDT this evening. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-020500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 2 AM EDT Saturday. The Gale
Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...8 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-012200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Gale
Warning.

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-012200-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191101T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

$$

LEZ040-041-020000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-012200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191101T2200Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
449 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West around 15 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JLA

223 
WHUS71 KBUF 012200
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
600 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

SLZ022-024-012300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191101T2200Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
600 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

LEZ040-041-020000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
600 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-020000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
600 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-020300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
600 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-020600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
600 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

000 
WHUS71 KBUF 012353
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
753 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

LOZ042-020100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
753 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

$$

LEZ040-041-020400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
753 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...Southwest 5 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-020300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
753 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-020600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
753 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

203 
WHUS71 KBUF 020242
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

LOZ043-020345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1042 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LEZ040-041-020400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1042 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...Southwest 5 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-020600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1042 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 5 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

931 
WHUS71 KBUF 020353
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1153 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

LEZ040-041-020500-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1153 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

$$

LOZ044-045-020600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1153 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 5 to 15 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

755 
WHUS71 KBUF 020552
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
152 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019

LOZ044-045-020700-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-191102T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
152 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
637 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure moving across southern Quebec will continue to
produce damaging winds across the region early this morning. Winds
will then quickly diminish from west to east this afternoon. Lake
effect rain and wet snow showers will continue east of the lakes
today, with some minor accumulations possible on the grass across
higher terrain this morning. Another surge of colder air will bring
more lake effect snow across the higher terrain east of the lakes
later Saturday night and Sunday morning, with moderate accumulations
possible in some areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong 987MB surface low with an associated very strong mid level
low over southern Quebec early this morning will remain progressive,
and move east away from the region today. The synoptic scale rain
has moved east of the area early this morning, with our attention
now turned towards the lake response as cold air pours into the
eastern Great Lakes.

Strong, damaging winds will continue across the region through early
this morning. A strong isallobaric fall/rise couplet will combine
with an impressive PV anomaly/tropopause fold to produce steep lapse
rates and very effective momentum transfer to the surface. This will
continue to produce gusts of 45-55 knots across the region early
this morning, with the strongest gusts close to the Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario shores. The strongest winds east and northeast of Lake
Erie are occuring now, but the strongest gusts are still yet to come
from early to mid morning from Rochester eastward.

Winds will quickly diminish from west to east starting mid morning
across Western NY, then late morning through early afternoon farther
east. Winds will become light by sunset this evening.

A fairly robust lake response developed earlier off Lake Erie,
supported by deep synoptic moisture and ascent from the passing mid
level trough. This is already weakening, with diminishing lake bands
drifting south across the Southern Tier. The favorable synoptic
scale support will not last long, and expect lake effect
precipitation to rapidly decrease in coverage and intensity by mid
morning. Until then, expect a mix of rain and wet snow across lower
elevations, and all wet snow across higher terrain. The hills from
southern Erie/Wyoming counties southward into the western Southern
Tier may see up to an inch of slush on the grass early this morning.

East of Lake Ontario, the lake response has rapidly increased over
the last hour, with a decent band extending across the Tug Hill into
the western Adirondacks. Based on mesonet temperatures, precip is
likely changing to wet snow across higher terrain. This lake band
will remain healthy only briefly through mid morning, with
diminishing synoptic scale moisture and support then forcing a rapid
weakening. Until then, up to an inch of slushy accumulation may
occur on the Tug Hill, with a few wet flakes mixing in at lower
elevations.

The lake response will fade by this afternoon, although there may
still be a few scattered rain/wet snow showers across the western
Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. The airmass remains marginally
supportive for a lake response through tonight. This may support a
few more scattered rain/wet snow showers this evening across the
western Southern Tier off Lake Erie. Overnight, boundary layer flow
will back to the SW and then SSW. This may carry a few scattered
rain and snow showers northward across the Buffalo Metro area before
dissipating by daybreak Saturday. Off Lake Ontario, a band of lake
effect rain and snow showers may have a little better organization
tonight across the Tug Hill. This may produce another round of minor
accumulation across higher terrain. Boundary layer flow will back to
the SSW late tonight, carrying a few scattered rain/snow showers
northward across Jefferson County before dissipating by Saturday
morning.

Temperatures will be below normal today, with highs only just above
40 across lower elevations and mid to upper 30s across higher
terrain. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s on the lake plains,
with mid to upper 20s in the colder interior locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
It looks like the first snowfall event of the 2019-2020 winter
season will arrive east of the Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. A
shortwave trough will deepen and become amplified across the Great
Lakes Saturday. Surface low pressure just north of Lake Superior
will slowly track towards eastern Ontario and James Bay while a cold
front approaches the eastern Great Lakes. While a southwest flow
responds to the approaching frontal boundary, most of Saturday will
be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. It's not until mid-late
afternoon that rain showers begin to move into far western NY as the
front nears. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 40s Saturday.

The cold front will track across Western NY Saturday evening and by
the early overnight hours east of Lake Ontario. Cold air advection
will filter into the region and temperatures will fall into the 30's
through the evening hours. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to -7 to -
5 C overnight leading to sufficient lake induced instability. Behind
the front, a westerly flow will lead to lake bands forming across
the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Forecast
soundings depict moisture through the dendritic growth zone with
equilibrium levels to about 12-15k feet. Surface temperatures will
be marginal, in the mid 30s near the lakeshores and lower
elevations. This will greatly reduce the potential for accumulation
in these areas. As for the higher terrain, surface temperatures will
fall to the upper 20s. With snow ratios higher across the Chautauqua
Ridge and portions of the western Southern Tier, accumulating snow
is expected to begin Saturday evening and last into Sunday morning.
Inversion heights will come crashing down around daybreak Sunday
morning east of Lake Erie as upstream moisture cuts off and high
pressure approaches from the south. Snow showers will likely
transition back to rain showers through the morning hours as the
boundary layer warms up. The bulk of accumulation will be Saturday
night into the wee hours of Sunday. Accumulations of 3-5 inches are
possible across the higher terrain with less than an inch along the
lake shore and lower elevations. East of Lake Ontario...similar
conditions across the Tug Hill as the western Southern Tier however
the westerly flow will add more fetch off the long axis of the
lakes. While the boundary layer warms into Sunday, snow showers will
transition to rain showers across the lower elevations. Snow should
stay the main ptype on the Tug Hill through Sunday morning. Snowfall
accumulations of 4-6 inches expected on the Tug Hill to less than an
inch at lower elevations. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed
for the higher terrain east of both Lakes for this event.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to around 40 Sunday.

The mean wind backs to the southwest and weakens into Sunday night.
Any ongoing snow showers will move to the northeast of the Lakes
before ending. Dry conditions are expected Sunday night into Monday
as warm air advection moves into the region and high pressure
settles off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Chilly temperatures expected
with lows in the low to mid 30s across the Lake Plains and mid to
upper 20s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will be the main player
influencing our weather Monday. This feature will bring dry and a
bit warmer conditions to the region with highs rebounding into the
50s. Although, a weak low does race by just to our west and
northwest as it heads into Canada. This feature may introduce some
cloud cover across far Western New York. Tuesday into Tuesday night,
precipitation chances again increase as another low races by to our
west dragging its associated cold front across the region. Behind
the cold front, a much colder air mass filters in across the Lower
Lakes with some lake response. After Wednesday, significant
differences arise with the ECMWF showing high pressure building in
across the Lower Lakes with cold conditions(H850T -12C/-14C). While
the GFS brings another weak weak wave across the forecast area with
some light snow for late Thursday into Friday. Either way, it
appears that the later half of the week will be colder at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect showers will continue through this morning east of Lakes
Erie and Ontario. Precipitation type will be rain with a few wet
flakes across lower elevations, but the higher terrain will be all
wet snow for a time. This will produce areas of IFR VSBY in snow
across the higher terrain through this morning, with MVFR favored at
lower elevations. CIGS will be mainly MVFR, with some spotty IFR in
the more persistent lake bands across higher terrain. The coverage
and intensity of lake effect showers will quickly diminish later
this morning as deeper moisture pulls away. This will allow most
lower elevations to return to VFR, with some MVFR CIGS continuing
across higher terrain and in bands of lake effect clouds.

Strong winds will continue across the region through early this
morning with gusts in excess of 45 knots at times in many locations.
The strong winds will subside from west to east from late morning
through the afternoon, with much lighter winds by early evening.

Scattered lake effect showers will continue tonight east of Lakes
Erie and Ontario with spotty MVFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS. What remains
of these will move north as boundary layer flow veers to the
southwest. The lake effect clouds and scattered showers will
dissipate by daybreak Saturday.

Outlook...
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A Chance of showers.
Saturday night and Sunday...Mainly VFR, except IFR in lake effect
rain and snow showers east of the lakes.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure across southern Quebec early this morning will
remain progressive, and continue to move east today. This will
continue to produce very strong winds on the eastern Great Lakes
early this morning. Winds have already peaked at Storm Force on Lake
Erie, and will begin to diminish through Gale Force early this
morning. Storm Force winds will last through mid morning on Lake
Ontario, especially the east half, before backing off to Gale Force
by late morning. Winds will then steadily diminish from west to east
this afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Generally 1-2 inches of rain has fallen across the region with
the bulk of the rain over west of Watertown. The exception is
southern Oswego and Lewis counties where observations and radar
estimates suggest totals are approaching 3 inches. This is
likely to result in general flooding, and also may push several
forecast points in the Black River basin above flood stage.

With current rainfall amounts in line with what was modeled by
the RFC, there appears a good chance that one or more forecast
points in the Black River basin will reach flood stage. Another
factor is that the bulk of the rain fell in a 6 hour period,
which can speed up and maximize the crest. This will be closely
monitored.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes
last evening, and this caused a dramatic increase in winds
which pushed Lake Erie over 10 feet. The lake level has receded
from its crest, but will continue to bounce around near the 8
foot flood stage this morning.

Lakeshore flooding will continue along the Lake Erie shore, with
road closures reported in Hamburg early this morning. Flooding
is also likely along the upper Niagara River, with several roads
closed along the river early this morning. The elevated Lake
Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara River,
which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations such
as Cayuga Island in the City of Niagara Falls.

Strong southwest to west winds combined with high lake levels
will result in lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion across
Jefferson and Oswego counties. Flooding may also develop across
the Thousand Islands region of the Saint Lawrence River as water
is pushed down the river from Lake Ontario. This can result in
flooding of many of the low lying, small islands in the river,
many of which have seasonal cottages on them.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ001>003-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ001-010-019-085.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ004>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ006-
     007.
     Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020-040-041.
         Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042-043-
         062.
         Storm Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ044-045-
         063>065.
         Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for SLZ022-
         024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...AR/HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

NYZ001>003-010>014-021-085-021430-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Allegany-Southern Erie-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-021430-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-020-021430-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Accumulating lake effect snow is likely across the higher terrain
inland from Lake Erie Saturday night through Sunday morning. There
remains some uncertainty, but 3 to 5 inches is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-021430-
Lewis-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Accumulating lake effect snow is likely across the higher terrain of
the Tug Hill Plateau late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
There remains some uncertainty, but 3 to 5 inches is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-007-021430-
Oswego-Jefferson-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Accumulating lake effect snow is likely across the higher terrain of
the Tug Hill Plateau late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
There remains some uncertainty, but 3 to 5 inches is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-021430-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-043-062-SLZ022-024-021430-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-063>065-021430-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1028 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
736 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DEPAUVILLE              44.14N  76.07W
11/01/2019                   JEFFERSON          NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS FIRE DEPARTMENTS IN JEFFERSON COUNTY HAVE BEEN
            OR ARE OUT ON TREE DOWN CALLS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901592

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CLEVELAND HILL          42.95N  78.79W
11/01/2019                   ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON YORKTOWN ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901593

KENYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BRIGHTON                43.12N  77.58W
11/01/2019                   MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TWITTER PICTURE FROM WHAM OF TREES DOWN ON LANDING ROAD
            NEAR LINDEN IN BRIGHTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901594

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
801 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BRIGHTON                43.12N  77.58W
11/01/2019                   MONROE             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS BLOCKED DUE TO TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN
            ACROSS BRIGHTON...ALONG LANDING ROAD AND ELMWOOD AVE.
            TIME ESTIMATED

0530 AM     FLOOD            PORT LEYDEN             43.58N  75.34W
11/01/2019                   LEWIS              NY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            RIVER ROAD AT WILDCAT ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
            REPORT FROM LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901595
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901596

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
813 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NW SEBASTIAN MOBILE H 43.14N  77.53W
11/01/2019                   MONROE             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE ON TRUCK ON PENFIELD RD IN BRIGHTON.

0636 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROCHESTER               43.17N  77.62W
11/01/2019                   MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ALL LANES AT PARKMERE RD AND LAKE
            LEA RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901597
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901598

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
826 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG IRONDEQUOIT             43.21N  77.57W
11/01/2019                   MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE ON A HOUSE IN IRONDEQUOIT. TIME ESTIMATED. TWITTER
            REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901599

DPK