Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

456 
WGUS61 KBUF 020121
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
821 PM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Sunday Night through Wednesday
Night...

Southerly winds will bring warm air into Western NY early next
week. This period of above freezing temperatures will result in
snow melt. A period of rainfall will accompany this period of
warmer weather and the combination of the two will likely result
in rises on area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in water
level can break up this ice, which can then become jammed where
there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such as
curves or other restrictions. People living in areas that are
prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in advance to
prepare for the potential for flooding Monday through Wednesday
night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-020930-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
821 PM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding 
  on some area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake effect 
  snow event in western NY this past week, liquid amounts in the 
  snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be possible. 
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a quarter inch 
  to a half inch. 

* Snow melt and warming temperatures Sunday through next week 
  will soften river ice. Ice jam concerns would then continue 
  through Wednesday night. The most susceptible areas for 
  potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, 
  and the upper Allegany River, although they can happen 
  anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

240 
WGUS61 KBUF 020916
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
416 AM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Sunday Night through Wednesday
Night...

Southerly winds will bring warm air into Western New York early 
next week. This period of above freezing temperatures will result 
in extensive snow melt. There will be some opportunities for 
rainfall that will accompany this period of warmer weather and the
combination of the two will result in rises on area rivers and 
creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to snowmelt and ice 
jams. Area creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises 
in water level can break up this ice, which can then become jammed
where there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such
as curves or other restrictions. People living in areas that are 
prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in advance to 
prepare for the potential for flooding Monday through Wednesday 
night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-021730-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
416 AM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding on
  some area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake effect snow
  event in western New York this past week, liquid amounts in the
  snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be possible. 
  Rainfall during the watch will average between a quarter inch to
  a half inch. 

* Snow melt and warming temperatures Sunday through next week will
  soften river and creek ice. Ice jam concerns would then 
  continue through Wednesday night. The most susceptible areas for
  potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, 
  and the upper Allegany River, although they can happen anywhere.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

TMA

976 
WGUS61 KBUF 021602
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1102 AM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Sunday Night through Wednesday
Night...

Southerly winds will bring warm air into Western New York early
next week. This period of above freezing temperatures will result
in extensive snow melt. There will be some opportunities for
rainfall that will accompany this period of warmer weather and
the combination of the two will result in rises on area rivers
and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to snowmelt and ice
jams. Area creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises
in water level can break up this ice, which can then become
jammed where there are constrictions in the river or creek
channel, such as curves or other restrictions. People living in
areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in
advance to prepare for the potential for flooding Monday through
Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-030015-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1102 AM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding 
  on some area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake effect 
  snow event in western New York this past week, liquid amounts 
  in the snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be 
  possible. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  quarter inch to a half inch. 

* Snow melt and warming temperatures Sunday through next week 
  will soften river and creek ice. Ice jam concerns would then 
  continue through Wednesday night. The most susceptible areas 
  for potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus 
  Creek, and the upper Allegany River, although they can happen 
  anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

385 
WGUS61 KBUF 022355
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Sunday Night through Wednesday
Night...

Southerly winds will bring warm air into Western New York early
next week. This period of above freezing temperatures will result
in extensive snow melt. There will be some opportunities for
rainfall that will accompany this period of warmer weather and
the combination of the two will result in rises on area rivers
and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to snowmelt and ice
jams. Area creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises
in water level can break up this ice, which can then become
jammed where there are constrictions in the river or creek
channel, such as curves or other restrictions. People living in
areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in
advance to prepare for the potential for flooding Monday through
Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-030800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
655 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late Sunday night through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding 
  on some area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake effect 
  snow event in western New York this past week, liquid amounts 
  in the snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be 
  possible. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  quarter inch to a half inch. 

* Snow melt and warming temperatures Sunday through next week 
  will soften river and creek ice. Ice jam concerns would then 
  continue through Wednesday night. The most susceptible areas 
  for potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus 
  Creek, and the upper Allegany River, although they can happen 
  anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

655 
WGUS61 KBUF 030943
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
443 AM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Tonight through Wednesday 
Night...

Southerly winds will bring warmer air into Western New York today
and Monday. Temperatures could reach the mid to upper 50s by 
Monday. This period of warm temperatures will result in extensive 
snow melt. There will be some opportunities for rainfall that 
will accompany this period of warmer weather and the combination 
of the two will result in rises on area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to snowmelt and ice
jams. Area creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises
in water level can break up this ice, which can then become
jammed where there are constrictions in the river or creek
channel, such as curves or other restrictions. People living in
areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in
advance to prepare for the potential for flooding Monday through
Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-031745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
443 AM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late tonight through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding 
  on some area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake effect 
  snow event in western New York this past week, liquid amounts 
  in the snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be 
  possible. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  quarter inch to a half inch. 

* Snow melt and warming temperatures today and Monday will help to
  break up river and creek ice. Ice jam concerns would then
  continue through Wednesday night, although colder air arriving
  Tuesday and Wednesday will help to slow the melting process. 
  The most susceptible areas for potential ice jams are the 
  Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany River,
  although they can happen anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

TMA

552 
WGUS61 KBUF 031736
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1236 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Tonight through Wednesday Night...

Southerly winds will bring warmer air into Western New York
through Monday. Temperatures could reach the mid to upper 50s by 
Monday. This period of warm temperatures will result in extensive 
snow melt. There will be some opportunities for rainfall that will
accompany this period of warmer weather and the combination of 
the two will result in rises on area rivers and creeks.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to snowmelt and ice
jams. Area creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises
in water level can break up this ice, which can then become
jammed where there are constrictions in the river or creek
channel, such as curves or other restrictions. People living in
areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in
advance to prepare for the potential for flooding Monday through
Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-040145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1236 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From late tonight through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in flooding 
  on some area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake effect 
  snow event in western New York this past week, liquid amounts 
  in the snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be 
  possible. Rainfall during the watch will average between a 
  quarter inch to a half inch. 

* Snow melt and warming temperatures today and Monday will help 
  to break up river and creek ice. Ice jam concerns would then 
  continue through Wednesday night, although colder air arriving 
  Tuesday and Wednesday will help to slow the melting process. 
  The most susceptible areas for potential ice jams are the 
  Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany 
  River, although they can happen anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

790 
WGUS61 KBUF 032110
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Tonight through Wednesday Night...

Southerly winds have brought much warmer air into Western New 
York, and this will last through Monday. Temperatures reached the
low to mid 50s across Western New York today, and will again on
Monday. This period of warm temperatures will result in extensive
snow melt. A period of rain will also occur late Monday and Monday
night, although rainfall amounts will be light.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area 
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in water 
level from snow melt can break up this ice, which can then become
jammed where there are constrictions in the river or creek 
channel, such as curves or at bridges. People living in areas 
that are prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in advance
to prepare for the potential for flooding from late tonight 
through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-040515-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
410 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From 1 AM EST Monday through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result water rises and
  ice jams on area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake
  effect snow event in western New York this past week, liquid
  amounts in the snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be
  possible. Rainfall during the watch will average around a
  quarter inch.

* Snow melt and warming temperatures today through Monday will
  help to break up river and creek ice. The greatest period of
  concern for ice jams will be very late tonight through Monday
  evening. Ice jam concerns may continue through Wednesday night,
  although colder air arriving Tuesday and Wednesday will help to
  slow the melting process. The most susceptible areas for 
  potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, 
  and the upper Allegany River, although they can happen anywhere.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Hitchcock

683 
WGUS61 KBUF 040235
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
935 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat Late Tonight through Wednesday Night...

Southerly winds have brought much warmer air into Western New
York, and this will last through Monday. Temperatures reached the
low to mid 50s across Western New York today, and will rise well into
the 50s again on Monday. This period of warm temperatures will 
result in extensive snow melt. A period of rain will also occur 
late Monday and Monday night, although rainfall amounts will be 
light.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rapid rises in water
level from snow melt can break up this ice, which can then become
jammed where there are constrictions in the river or creek
channel, such as curves or at bridges. People living in areas
that are prone to ice jam flooding should take the time in
advance to prepare for the potential for flooding from late
tonight through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-041045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.190204T0600Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
935 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* From 1 AM EST Monday through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result water rises 
  and ice jams on area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake 
  effect snow event in western New York this past week, liquid 
  amounts in the snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will 
  be possible. Rainfall during the watch will average around a 
  quarter inch. 

* Snow melt and warming temperatures through Monday will help to 
  break up river and creek ice. The greatest period of concern for
  ice jams will be very late tonight through Monday evening. Ice 
  jam concerns may continue through Wednesday night, although 
  colder air arriving Tuesday and Wednesday will help to slow the 
  melting process. The most susceptible areas for potential ice 
  jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper 
  Allegany River, although they can happen anywhere.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel

380 
WGUS61 KBUF 040908
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 AM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through Wednesday Night...

Record to near record breaking warmth is expected today.
Temperatures across Western New York will reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s. These temperatures will result in extensive snow melt.
A period of rain will also occur tonight, although rainfall 
amounts will be light and less than a quarter inch.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rises in water level 
from snow melt can break up this ice, which can then become jammed
where there are constrictions in the river or creek channel, such
as curves or at bridges. People living in areas that are prone to
ice jam flooding should prepare for the potential for flooding 
through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-041715-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
408 AM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in water rises
  and ice jams on area creeks and rivers. Due to the recent lake 
  effect snow event in western New York this past week, liquid 
  amounts in the snow pack average 2 to 4 inches. Ice jams will be
  possible. Rainfall during the watch will average around a 
  quarter inch. 

* Snow melt and warm temperatures through today will break up 
  river and creek ice. The greatest period of concern for ice jams
  will be through this evening. Ice jam concerns may continue 
  through Wednesday night, although colder air arriving Tuesday 
  and Wednesday will help to slow the melting process. The most 
  susceptible areas for potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks,
  Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany River, although they 
  can happen anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

TMA

802 
WGUS61 KBUF 041634
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1134 AM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through Wednesday Night...

Record to near record breaking warmth is expected this afternoon.
Temperatures across Western New York will reach the upper 50s to 
lower 60s. These temperatures will result in extensive snow melt. 
A period of rain will also occur tonight, although rainfall 
amounts will be light and less than a quarter inch.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Area
creeks and rivers have thick ice in place. Rises in water level
from snow melt can break up this ice, which can then become
jammed where there are constrictions in the river or creek
channel, such as curves or at bridges. People living in areas
that are prone to ice jam flooding should prepare for the
potential for flooding through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-050045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1134 AM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain may result in water rises
  and ice jams on area creeks and rivers. Recent snow fall had a
  liquid equivalent 2 to 4 inches, much of which is quickly
  melting into area creeks. Ice jams will be possible. Rainfall 
  during the watch will average around a quarter inch. 

* Snow melt and warm temperatures this afternoon will break up
  river and creek ice. The greatest period of concern for ice jams
  will be through this evening. Ice jam concerns may continue
  through Wednesday night, although colder air arriving Tuesday
  and Wednesday will help to slow the melting process. The most
  susceptible areas for potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks,
  Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany River, although they
  can happen anywhere. Users should be wary of unrepresentative
  gauge readings with ice as hydro gauges are designed to measure
  for ice free conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

115 
WGUS61 KBUF 042338
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 PM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through Wednesday Night...

Record breaking warmth resulted in extensive snow melt today. A 
period of rain will also occur tonight, although rainfall amounts 
will be light and less than a quarter inch.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Rises in 
water level can break up ice which is on area creeks. This flowing
ice can then become jammed where there are constrictions in the 
river or creek channel, such as curves or at bridges. People 
living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should prepare 
for the potential for flooding through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-050745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
638 PM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain will result in increasing
  flows, which may break up ice and result in ice jams. There will
  also be some rain tonight, with around a quarter inch expected.

* Warm temperatures this afternoon has caused additional snow melt
  this afternoon, which may break up river and creek ice. The
  greatest period of concern for ice jams is through this evening.
  Ice jam concerns may continue through Wednesday night, although
  colder air arriving Tuesday and Wednesday will help to slow the
  melting process. The most susceptible areas for potential ice
  jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper
  Allegany River, although they can happen anywhere. Users should
  be wary of unrepresentative gauge readings impacted by ice since
  these are not representative of actual flows.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel

761 
WGUS61 KBUF 050333
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1033 PM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through Wednesday Night...

Record breaking warmth resulted in extensive snow melt. A period 
of rain will also occur overnight, although rainfall amounts will
be light and less than a quarter inch.

The primary risk for flooding will be due to ice jams. Rises in
water level can break up ice which is on area creeks. This
flowing ice can then become jammed where there are constrictions
in the river or creek channel, such as curves or at bridges.
People living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should
prepare for the potential for flooding through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-051145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1033 PM EST Mon Feb 4 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Wednesday night.

* The combination of snow melt and rain will result in increasing
  flows, which may break up ice and result in ice jams. There will
  also be some rain overnight, with around a quarter inch
  expected. 

* Warm temperatures have caused substantial snow melt, which may
  break up river and creek ice. Ice jam concerns may continue 
  through Wednesday night, although colder air arriving Tuesday 
  and Wednesday will help to slow the melting process. The most 
  susceptible areas for potential ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks,
  Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany River, although they 
  can happen anywhere. Users should be wary of unrepresentative 
  gauge readings impacted by ice since these are not 
  representative of actual flows. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel

214 
WGUS61 KBUF 050938
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
438 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through Wednesday Night...

Temperatures are now cooling after two days with very warm 
temperatures. A sizable amount of our snowpack across western 
New York has runoff in areas rivers and creeks. 

Despite all of the melting snow, only very modest rises in flow
has occurred on area creeks and rivers. Rainfall which moved 
through overnight was fairly light, with amounts less than a 
quarter inch.

The risk remains for flooding due to ice jams. Water levels may 
still increase from snowmelt runoff and overnight rainfall and 
continue to break up ice which is on area creeks. Flows are likely
to gradually lessen through today and into tonight, as additional
runoff will slow due to the cooling temperatures.

Flowing ice can become jammed where there are constrictions in 
the river or creek channel, such as curves or at bridges. People 
living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should continue
to monitor water levels and be prepared for the potential for 
flooding through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-051745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
438 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Wednesday night.

* Ice jam concerns remain as river and creek ice may continue to 
  break up, resulting in ice jams as runoff from snow melt and 
  overnight rainfall make its way into area rivers and creeks.

* Colder air arriving today and Wednesday will help to slow the 
  melting process. The most susceptible areas for potential ice 
  jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper 
  Allegany River, although they can happen anywhere. 

* Users should be wary of unrepresentative gauge readings 
  impacted by ice since these are not representative of actual 
  flows. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

TMA

838 
WGUS61 KBUF 051447
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
947 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through Wednesday Night...

Temperatures are now cooling after two days with very warm
temperatures. A sizable amount of our snowpack across western New
York has runoff in areas rivers and creeks.

Despite all of the melting snow, only very modest rises in flow
has occurred on area creeks and rivers. Rainfall which moved
through overnight was fairly light, with amounts less than a
quarter inch.

The risk remains for flooding due to ice jams. Water levels may
still increase from snowmelt runoff and overnight rainfall and
continue to break up ice which is on area creeks. Flows are
likely to gradually lessen through today and into tonight, as
additional runoff will slow due to the cooling temperatures.

Flowing ice can become jammed where there are constrictions in
the river or creek channel, such as curves or at bridges. People
living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should
continue to monitor water levels and be prepared for the
potential for flooding through Wednesday night.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-052300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190207T0600Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
947 AM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late Wednesday night.

* Ice jams remain a concern as river and creek ice may continue to
  break up.

* Colder air arriving today and Wednesday will help to slow the 
  melting process. The most susceptible areas for potential ice 
  jams are the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper 
  Allegany River, although they can happen anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel

803 
WGUS61 KBUF 051844
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through late tonight...

Temperatures are now cooling after two days with very warm
temperatures. A sizable amount of our snowpack across western New
York has runoff in areas rivers and creeks. Rainfall which moved 
through overnight was fairly light, with amounts less than a 
quarter inch. Although flows will gradually lessen through
tonight, ice jams may still break up and reposition which could
result in additional flooding.

Flowing ice can become jammed where there are constrictions in 
the river or creek channel, such as curves or at bridges. People 
living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should continue
to monitor water levels and be prepared for the potential for 
flooding through late tonight.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-060245-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190206T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
144 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late tonight.

* Ice jams remain a concern as river and creek ice may continue 
  to break up. 

* Colder air arriving today will help to slow the melting 
  process. The most susceptible areas for potential ice jams are 
  the Buffalo Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany 
  River, although they can happen anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

Apffel

717 
WGUS61 KBUF 052022
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
322 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...Ice Jam Flooding Threat through late tonight...

While temperatures have significantly lowered after several days
of unseasonably mild conditions...area tributaries remain swollen
from a substantial melt down of a deep snow pack. Flows will
gradually lessen through tonight with temperatures dropping well
below freezing, but current ice jams could still still break up
and reposition to create flooding in different areas. 

Flowing ice can become jammed where there are constrictions in
the river or creek channel, such as curves or at bridges. People
living in areas that are prone to ice jam flooding should
continue to monitor water levels and be prepared for the
potential for flooding through late tonight.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-060800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190206T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
322 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Cattaraugus...Chautauqua...Genesee...Niagara... 
  Northern Erie...Orleans...Southern Erie and Wyoming. 

* Through late tonight.

* Ice jams remain a concern as river and creek ice may continue 
  to break up. 

* Deepening cold air will help to slow the melting process. The 
  most susceptible areas for potential ice jams are the Buffalo 
  Creeks, Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany River, 
  although they can happen anywhere. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv
stations for further details or updates

&&

$$

555 
WGUS61 KBUF 060759
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
259 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019


NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-060900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190206T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
259 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of western New York has been
cancelled. Temperatures are below freezing this morning. They are
only expected to rise into the upper 30s today...with no new ice
jams forming. Existing flood warnings across Erie County will
continue and please refer to the Areal Flood Warnings for
additional information.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1226 PM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Frigid air will remain over the region through the next day or
so as the last vestiges of lake effect east of Lake Ontario die
off. Much milder conditions are expected over the weekend and
especially into early next week. Some light snow or a light
wintry mix is possible by Saturday or Saturday night before
changing to rain Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The skinny band of snow extending the length of Lake Ontario
continues to shrink back toward the open waters of the lake.
This is occurring as ambient flow has become decidedly lighter
through the day with surface high pressure moving in, and
subsidence away from the lake is increasing. Thus, just some
light accumulation along the lake shore in Oswego County is
expected from this point forward. Going into the evening, the
remnants of the band should translate northward toward Jefferson
County as they further fall apart.

Otherwise, a system is transiting the area to the south,
spreading high clouds up toward the PA/NY border. The Arctic air
mass in place combined with blocking high pressure will prevent
this from making any northward migration. The net result will
continue to be clear skies and lighter winds away from the lake
effect band east of Lake Ontario.

High pressure maintains sway over the area at least through the
first half of the overnight with light winds and clear skies
allowing for rapid temperature fall offs this evening. Deep/new
snow cover over much of the area along with very little
component of the flow off of the open lake water should result
in efficient radiational cooling through the evening. This will
be tempered a bit overnight as high clouds advance from the
northwest ahead of the next system to affect the area. Likewise,
an increase in overnight cloud cover will probably yield some
upward tick in temperatures toward morning.

A modest short wave trough looks to move across Ontario and
into Quebec Saturday into Saturday night. Deeper moisture will
remain to the north, but sufficient moisture depth to intersect
the dendritic layer with upslope northwesterly flow should allow
for a few inches of snow across the North Country with this
system. Farther south along the cold front, both the lifting
profile and moisture depth are far less impressive. Lower PoPs
were thus featured over WNY and the northern Finger Lakes.
Likewise, p-type will start to become a consideration as the
system advances southeastward into the area and eventually
stalls over WNY. Boundary layer and especially ground
temperatures will be near/below freezing. There is shallow
moisture and lifting depth, and the moist layer doesn't get into
the dendritic growth layer. Luckily, QPF projections are
minimal, however a period of inefficient snow or freezing
drizzle will be possible as the system moves through late
Saturday into Saturday night as a result. Warmer air does
advance northward with this system, so even a bit of plain old
rain will be possible across the southern half of the CWA as we
transition into the short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant Warming Sets the stage for Ice Jam threat...

We can be assured that temperatures will climb well above normal
during this period...as the notorious polar vortex will retreat
across Quebec to the Labrador Sea. In its wake...a near zonal flow
in the mid levels will be found over the Lower 48. This huge change
in the amplification of the overlying jet stream will allow Pacific
modified air to flood the entire country...so that by the start of
the new work week...our mercury readings will average 15 to 20
degrees ABOVE normal. While this will certainly be welcomed by the
majority of the populous...it may come at a price. The prolonged
trend of warming will SIGNIFICANTLY raise the threat for ice jam
flooding. More on that in the hydrology section below. As for the
day to day details of the weather...

On Sunday...the stalled frontal boundary will push back to the
northeast as a warm front. The 45 kt low level jet from the previous
night will interact with this boundary and associated tightening
baroclinic zone to generate some light rain and snow...particularly
near and east of Lake Ontario in the vcnty of the frontal boundary.
Pops will range from low chc in the Southern Tier to high likely
over the North Country. In fact...the bulk of the afternoon should
be pcpn free for the Southern Tier and much of the Finger Lakes
region. In regards to p-type...a warming profile will continue to
support mixed pcpn in the more widespread areas of pcpn north of a
line from BUF to ROC to SYR. Meanwhile...we can tack another 5-8 deg
f to our high temperatures from the previous day...as the mercury is
expected to reach the lower 40s across the bulk of western New York
and the mid to upper 30s across the North Country. The added warmth
combined with tds climbing into the mid 30s across the western
counties will finish 'ripening' the snowpack with some true melting
beginning during the mid and late afternoon.

A burgeoning mid level ridge over the Great Lakes region Sunday
night will help to push the stubborn warm front a bit further north
into Quebec. This will place the bulk of the western counties within
a dry warm sector while mixed wintry precipitation will only
grudgingly taper off for sites near and east of Lake Ontario. For
the third night in a row...a non diurnal temperature trend can be
expected. Mins will once again occur before midnight with the vast
majority of the region remaining well above freezing. This will
encourage significantly melting of the ripe snowpack. Given the
extent of the ice in area tributaries...this influx of melt water
will substantially increase the rick for ice jam related issues.
Additional information about this risk can be found below in the
hydrology section.

Monday will easily be the mildest day of this forecast package...as
the prolonged period of warm advection will support afternoon
temperatures in the 50s for all but the highest terrain and for
sites east of Lake Ontario...where max temps will be in the upper
40s. The last push of milder air into the region will be enhanced by
the passing of a progressive mid level ridge and the approach of a
deepening sub 1000mb cyclone The storm system will track from Iowa
to the Upper Great Lakes during the course of the day...which will
place our forecast area deep within its associated warm sector.
Other than some residual mixed pcpn (mainly in the morning) for the
North Country...the day will be pcpn free and notably more
comfortable. This is a change from continuity which had some rain
moving into the western counties during the afternoon. Significant
melting will be well underway by this time with large rises for the
tributaries found in areas that received heavy snows from the past
two weeks.

As the relatively deep storm system tracks by to our north Monday
night...its associated cold front will push through our forecast
area. Have maintained likely pops for rain showers with this frontal
passage...which will also be accompanied by wind gusts that could
exceed 35 mph. QPF from the fropa should remain under a tenth of an
inch...but continued runoff from melt water could still be an issue
for ice jam prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is high confidence that temperatures will remain above normal
during this period...as broad ridging over the eastern half of the
country is forecast to undergo significant amplification. This could
be concerning for those with hydro concerns...as the end result
could be a large...rain producing storm system.

While temperatures will still average above normal on Tuesday...it
will turn much cooler as a fresh Canadian airmass will overspread
the region in the wake of Monday nights cold frontal passage. There
may be some leftover nuisance rain or wet snow showers immediately
behind the front...especially for sites east of Lake Ontario.

A large surface high centered over northern Ontario will then arch
southwards across our forecast area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. This relatively brief period of fair weather will give
way to the aforementioned storm system Wednesday night and
especially Thursday. While the medium range ensemble members are in
agreement that a storm system originating in the southern stream
will impact our region...there is a WIDE range of timing for its
impact on the Lower Great Lakes. Guidance has generally been hitting
the brakes on the system...with some solutions now holding off any
organized pcpn until Thursday night or even Friday. There is also
disagreement on the strength and track of the cyclone...all very
dependent on the amount of phasing with the northern branch of the
jet. For what its worth...the GFS based ensembles seem to be having
the most difficulty resolving this system. Dprog-Dt of past model
runs have been atrocious as far as consistency. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snows east of Lake Ontario are winding down. The
current band should become largely disorganized with just a few
snow showers moving back toward ART later this evening. Clear
skies otherwise into the evening with light winds. Another
system moves toward the area for late in the period with
southwesterly flow increasing as ceilings start to fall off.
Snow is likely to redevelop in ART toward noon on Saturday but
hold off reaching any other sites before the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Tonight and Saturday...A chance of snow/MVFR east of Lake
Ontario...otherwise VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of mixed precipitation.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers, with these
becoming more likely Monday night.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers east
and southeast of Lake Ontario.
Wednesday...MVFR with a chance of rain and snow.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into our region today will bring
diminishing winds and waves. This has allowed for the
cancellation of Small Craft Advisories over Lake Ontario.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There will be a few chances of rain beginning Sunday into early
next week. The first rain event now looks to be minor Sunday
through Monday, with rain amounts generally 0.25" or less. A
second, potentially more significant rain maker is forecast for
later Wednesday through Thursday. It remains too early for any
specific rain amounts with that system, but it could be more
than the first.

Rising temperatures Sunday through next week will significantly
elevate the risk of ice jams. Thawing Degree Hours will reach
the point where ice may begin to move by Monday. Ice jam
concerns would then continue through Thursday. The most
susceptible areas to ice jams are the Buffalo Creeks,
Cattaraugus Creek, and the upper Allegany River, although they
can happen anywhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
January finished as the fourth snowiest on record at the
Buffalo Airport. The snow total for the month is 63.4 inches.
Below is the current list of the top 5 snowiest months of
January on record.

	Rank	 Amount (in)	Year

	1		68.3		  1977
	2		65.9		  1985
	3		65.1		  1999
    4		56.5		  1978
    5       53.2          1982

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from late Sunday night through late Tuesday night
     for NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...Fries
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...Fries/TMA
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Thomas/JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
657 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

NYZ010-012-019-020-085-021200-
Northern Erie-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
657 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A major warm up this weekend into early next week will significantly
raise the risk for ice jam flooding due to melting snow. This will
particular be the case for the Buffalo area creeks and for
Cattaraugus Creek at Sunset Bay.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-011-013-014-021-021200-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Livingston-
Ontario-Allegany-
657 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A major warm up this weekend into early next week will raise the
risk for ice jam flooding due to melting snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-021200-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
657 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-021200-
Jefferson-Lewis-
657 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-021200-
Oswego-
657 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
918 AM EST FRI FEB 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             5 SSW HARRISVILLE       44.09N  75.37W
02/01/2019  M6.8 INCH        LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             7 SW ATTICA             42.80N  78.39W
02/01/2019  M4.0 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SSE LACONA            43.60N  76.04W
02/01/2019  M13.8 INCH       OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             BENNETTS BRIDGE         43.52N  75.95W
02/01/2019  M6.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900685
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900686
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900687
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900688

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1203 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             SE MANNSVILLE           43.71N  76.06W
02/01/2019  M14.0 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900689

DSF