Storm Watch 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

097 
WHUS71 KBOX 291442
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
942 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

ANZ250-251-292245-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0005.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
942 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt.
  Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-292245-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.A.0005.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
942 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 45 
  kt. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ231>235-237-254>256-292245-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0002.190130T1900Z-190131T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
942 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 
  kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

710 
WHUS71 KBOX 292044
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
344 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

ANZ250-251-300445-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0005.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
344 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Westerly winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.
  Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-300445-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0005.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
344 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Westerly winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.
  Waves 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-300445-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.190130T1900Z-190131T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
344 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
Thursday. The Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Westerly winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt.
  Seas 5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-300445-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.190130T1900Z-190131T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
344 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
Thursday. The Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Westerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt.
  Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-300445-
/O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0002.190130T1900Z-190131T0400Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
344 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Westerly winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt.
  Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

416 
WHUS71 KBOX 300825
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
325 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

ANZ231-232-301630-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0001.190130T2000Z-190131T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.UP.W.0002.190131T0300Z-190131T1400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
325 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Storm
Warning, which is in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST
this evening. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has also been
issued. This Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect from 10 PM
this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday. The Gale Warning is no longer
in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 
  kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Heavy Freezing spray expected late tonight into
  Thursday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is
expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can
be extremely hazardous to navigation. The U.S. Coast Guard
advises mariners to check and ensure all life saving devices
remain free of ice. Mariners not trained to operate in these
conditions, or vessels not properly equipped to do so, should
remain in port or avoid the warning area.

&&

$$

ANZ251-301630-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.UP.W.0002.190131T0300Z-190131T1400Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
325 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning, which is in effect from 10 PM this
evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 
  kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Heavy Freezing spray expected late tonight into
  Thursday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is
expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can
be extremely hazardous to navigation. The U.S. Coast Guard
advises mariners to check and ensure all life saving devices
remain free of ice. Mariners not trained to operate in these
conditions, or vessels not properly equipped to do so, should
remain in port or avoid the warning area.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-301630-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0002.190130T1900Z-190131T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0001.190130T2000Z-190131T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.UP.Y.0004.190131T0200Z-190201T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
325 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Storm
Warning, which is in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST
this evening. A Freezing Spray Advisory has also been issued.
This Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect from 9 PM this evening
to 7 AM EST Friday. The Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 
  kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Freezing spray is expected tonight into
  Thursday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.

A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in
freezing spray can be hazardous. The U.S. Coast Guard advises
mariners to check and ensure all life saving devices remain free
of ice.

&&

$$

ANZ233>235-237-301630-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.UP.Y.0004.190131T0200Z-190201T1200Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
325 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a
Freezing Spray Advisory, which is in effect from 9 PM this
evening to 7 AM EST Friday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 
  kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Freezing spray is expected tonight into
  Thursday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in
freezing spray can be hazardous. The U.S. Coast Guard advises
mariners to check and ensure all life saving devices remain free
of ice.

&&

$$

ANZ250-301630-
/O.EXT.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.UP.Y.0004.190131T0200Z-190201T1200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
325 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a
Freezing Spray Advisory, which is in effect from 9 PM this
evening to 7 AM EST Friday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 
  kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Freezing spray is expected tonight into
  Thursday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in
freezing spray can be hazardous. The U.S. Coast Guard advises
mariners to check and ensure all life saving devices remain free
of ice.

&&

$$

ANZ230-236-301630-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0008.190130T1800Z-190131T0600Z/
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
325 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 
  kt. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Frank

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
348 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will bring rain and snow to the region very late today
and especially tonight.  The heaviest snow accumulations will be
across the interior high terrain of Massachusetts and particularly
along the east slopes of the Berkshires.  An arctic cold front
crosses the region late Wednesday into Wednesday evening, likely bringing
snow squalls followed by bitterly cold temperatures Wednesday night
into Friday morning.  Milder weather arrives this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

340 am update...

High pressure will continue to shift eastward across the Canadian
Maritimes this morning.  The result will be onshore flow and an
abundance of low clouds this morning.  Dry weather should generally
prevail in most locations through early afternoon.  However...a few
light ocean effect snow showers/flurries can not be ruled out across
the eastern MA coast. Greatest risk will be along the north shore,
where the largest SST differential exists. Regardless, do not expect
much more than a coating of snow if this activity develops.

High temperatures this afternoon will generally range from the upper
20s to the middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Accumulating snow tonight mainly northwest of a Bos-Pvd-Hfd line

* Highest snow accumulations across the interior high terrain of
  MA and especially along the east slopes of the Berkshires

Details...

Late this afternoon through tonight...

Low pressure will approach from the southwest late this afternoon
and lift northeast across interior MA tonight.  This will increase
the forcing for ascent and allow precipitation to develop across
much of western MA/northern CT, roughly between 3 and 6 pm this
evening.  It probably will not arrive across eastern MA/RI until
after 6 or 7 pm this evening.

Given that the low pressure system will be tracking across interior
MA tonight...milder mid level air will be overspreading the region.
After perhaps a brief period of snow along and southeast of a Bos-
Pvd-Hfd line, mainly rain is expected.  Accums probably should
generally be a dusting to mainly less than an inch in most of these
locales.  Thermal profiles will be cold enough for mainly snow to
the northwest of a Westfield...to Worcester...to Bedford MA line.

Given the track of the low pressure system the stronger
forcing/greater QPF will also be across our western MA/northern CT
zones.

Current thinking is the heaviest snowfall will be along the
east slopes of the Berkshires...where we will hoist Winter Storm
Warnings for 4 to 8 inches of snow.  Across the rest of
western/central MA will go with Winter Weather Advisories for snow
accumulations of 1 to 5 inches.  The higher of those amounts will be
across the higher terrain of interior northern MA.  Further south in
northern CT...ptype will be more of an issue.  Accumulations in the
lower elevations should not be much more than an inch, but a few
inches expected near the MA border in the higher terrain of northern
CT. We did opt to go with a Winter Weather Advisory for Hartford
county, primarily for the far northwest portion of the area where 3
to 6 inches of snow will be possible.  It is possible later shifts
may have to consider expanding winter weather advisories into
Tolland county as well as far northeast MA, but confidence was
not high enough at this point.

The system is quite progressive and all the precipitation should
exit the region from west to east between 2 and 5 am.  Colder air
may result in areas that have changed to rain end as a brief period
of snow. Untreated roads may remain slippery though for the Wed
morning commute...mainly across interior southern New England.
Low temps by daybreak should mainly drop back into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ Highlights ...

 - Bone chilling, record-breaking cold late week into weekend
 - WIND CHILL headlines likely
 - Pattern shift into early February, mild with zipping SW-NE storms
 - What side of the envelope, difficult to say on outcomes

*/ Overview ...

Pattern shake-up. W retreat H3 Pacific jet buffered by sub-tropical
Pacific activity echoing poleward. Latent heat release and higher
heights, favorable N Pacific low development shifts over Russia's
Kamchatka Peninsula. Noting 5-day ensemble means, H5 split flow out
over the NE Pacific / Gulf of Alaska, W CONUS H5 trof promotion with
SW winds across the CONUS. Recent S-carving PV-anomalies across E/NE
N America shunted N, favorable region of storm developments shifts
towards S Greenland. This as the stratospheric polar vortex (10 mb)
tightens up over the N pole.

So how does this play out for New England in the long run? Will be
watching for any surge of anomalously warmer sub-tropical W/SW winds
yielding +H85 temperature anomalies as the ECens suggests into early
February. But challenges into an ongoing phase 5-6 MJO into phase 7,
strength / magnitude of sub-tropical Pacific activity in question,
unclear the impact along with inherent challenges in
forecasting. A nod to NE Pacific split-flow regime, how energy
echoes downstream through a preferred W CONUS trof and, at
times, anticyclonic wave breaks extending from Hawaii into
western N America. The latter, an eye on H85 westerly anomalies
already noted S/E of Hawaii just N of the equator.

Seemingly along the thermal-cusp, will be watching for SW-NE weak
open-wave zipping lows, wobbling, wavering, a challenge to forecast.
New England will be a precip-type playground into the first week of
February. Unclear whether we tap into forecast +H85 temperature
anomalies, or are cut down by undercutting NE-winds with prevailing
preferred high pressure over SE Canada. Break down details, forecast
thinking below. Greater weighting towards EC / ECens as always.

*/ Discussion ...

Wednesday night through Saturday night ...

Cold. Plain and simple. Stout potential vorticity anomaly / trop-
fold contributing to deep surface cyclogenesis across Quebec. The
isallobaric / gradient wind response driving Arctic air across the
NE CONUS into the weekend. Have to watch for WIND CHILL headlines
for late Wednesday through Wednesday night, possibly through as late
as Friday. Cold air advection, steepening lapse rates over time up
to around H7 beneath the trop-fold 0z Thursday, will also have to
watch winds, efficiency for the top of the mixed layer to mix down,
whether we'll need WIND HEADLINES in addition to some scattered snow
shower activity. H85 temperatures falling down around -25C, can't
rule out record-breaking H925-7 temperatures within Chatham sounding
profiles per climatology.

A 1030+ high Saturday morn, cold exacerbated by radiational cooling,
especially for areas with deeper snowpack. May come close to record
lows, but a better shot of breaking record lowest high temperatures.

Sunday onward ...

SW-NE weak zipping lows grasping on conduits of sub-tropical air
while training along wavering thermal gradients. Little confidence
on outcomes, will have to wait and see. Numerous variables as to
whether snow pack remains which, if any undercutting cold NE flow
prevails in advance, would aid in maintaining frozen precip-types.
Expecting forward-thump, isentropic-upslope, baroclinic leaf events
with SW-NE lows. Generally weak, fast, with a possible decent sub-
tropical fetch, anywhere from snow to rain, just depends which side
of the envelope S New England will reside upon.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Today...Moderate to high confidence. MVFR to low end VFR broken
ceilings will dominate into mid afternoon.

Other than perhaps a few ocean effect flurries/light snow
showers possible along the eastern MA coast this morning, dry
weather should prevail in most locales through mid afternoon.
Light to moderate snow should overspread areas northwest of a
Boston to Providence corridor between 20z and 00z. This will
result in IFR to even LIFR conditions developing.

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Snow roughly northwest
of a BDL...to ORH...to BED line. Southeast of this line, any
snow should be short-lived and flip to rain this evening. Bulk
of the precipitation ends from west to east between 6z and
10z...perhaps ending as a brief period of snow in some locales
before ending. Overall...low end MVFR-IFR conditions along the
coastal plain much of tonight, but with IFR to LIFR conditions
northwest of a BDL...to ORH...to BED line where mainly snow is
expected. Improvement to VFR may occur from west to east between
9z and 12z

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Low risk for
a light snow shower or two this morning. Otherwise, dry weather
prevails through about 23z. Mainly light rain arrives this
evening, perhaps beginning as a brief period of rain and snow.
Little if any accums anticipated on runways with temps above
freezing.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Snow
probably arrives after 21z or 22z. The snow probably mixes with
or changes to rain/sleet after 00z, which probably changes back
to snow after 3z or 4z before ending by 7z or 8z Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate Confidence

Wednesday...

Blustery W winds, gusts of around 25 to 35 kts, possibly as high
as 40 kts. SCT-BKN low-end VFR CIGs around 040, the threat of
SN/+SN showers with briefing IFR-LIFR impacts and quick snow
accumulations on any and all surfaces.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to
40 kt.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Today and tonight...High confidence.  NE flow this morning becomes
southeast this afternoon through much of tonight.  This a result of
high pressure shifting east of the Canadian Maritimes and low
pressure tracking to the west of the waters.  Southeast wind gusts
of 20 to 25 knots later today into tonight, shifting to the west
toward daybreak across our western waters.  Seas build to between 4
and 7 feet later today and tonight.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate Confidence

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with local gusts
up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Freezing spray likely,
slight chance of snow showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray likely,
slight chance of snow showers.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray
likely.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Freezing spray likely.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record LOWEST High Temperatures for Thursday, January 31st...

Boston ....... 12 (1920, 1935)
Hartford ..... 15 (1951)
Providence ... 15 (1935)
Worcester .... 11 (1951)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Wednesday for CTZ002.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Wednesday for MAZ003-004-010>012-026.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Wednesday for MAZ002-008-009.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell
CLIMATE...Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

MAZ002>004-008-009-292045-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts and
western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Wednesday into Thursday...

Dangerously cold wind chills are forecast. Wind chills of 15 to 25
degrees below zero are possible. Exposure to the elements over 30
minutes, there is the risk for frostbite and hypothermia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-010>024-026-RIZ001>008-292045-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Midday Tuesday into early Wednesday morning...

Snow will develop west to east beginning around noon, mixing with or
changing over to rain for areas along the Hartford, Worcester, and
Boston corridor southward. Potential impacts of slick, hazardous
travel Tuesday afternoon into evening, especially along the I 91
corridor and western halves of Massachusetts I 90 and Route 2.

Wednesday into Thursday...

Dangerously cold wind chills are forecast. Wind chills of 15 to 25
degrees below zero are possible. Exposure to the elements over 30
minutes, there is the risk for frostbite and hypothermia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-292045-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-292045-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Wednesday into Thursday...

There is a risk of gales.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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