Alert archive / Massachusetts / Winter Storm Warnings in 2019

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

January 29, 2019Franklin County, Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this winter storm warning at Jan 29, 2019, 3:22 AM EST for Franklin County, Hampden County, Hampshire County, Massachusetts. It took effect at Jan 29, 2019, 3:00 PM EST. It was in force for 12 hr. 14 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 29, 2019, 3:22 AM EST (08:22 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 29, 2019, 3:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 30, 2019, 3:29 AM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 29, 8:51 PM ESTSNOW 2.3Heath, MA
Jan 29, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 1West Springfield, MA
Jan 29, 9:02 PM ESTSNOW 1Springfield, MA
Jan 29, 9:45 PM ESTSNOW 2Chicopee, MA
Jan 29, 10:00 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Worthington, MA
Jan 29, 10:25 PM ESTSNOW 3.72 Se Plainfield, MA
Jan 29, 10:25 PM ESTSNOW 3.7Plainfield, MA
Jan 29, 10:29 PM ESTSNOW 2Holyoke, MA
Jan 29, 10:34 PM ESTSNOW 2.5Springfield, MA
Jan 29, 10:45 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Easthampton, MA
Jan 29, 11:15 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Leyden, MA
Jan 29, 11:30 PM ESTSNOW 4Cummington, MA
Jan 30, 12:03 AM ESTSNOW 4Heath, MA
Jan 30, 1:07 AM ESTSNOW 4Monson, MA

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-01-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-01-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 33 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1655 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

841 
WWUS41 KBOX 290822
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
322 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

MAZ002-008-009-291630-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0002.190129T2000Z-190130T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0002.190129T2000Z-190130T1000Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
322 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Wednesday. Heaviest
  snow occurs from 5 pm this evening through midnight. Snow ends
  between 3 and 5 am Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult late this
  afternoon and especially tonight. The snow should come to an end
  toward daybreak Wednesday, but untreated roads will remain
  slippery for the morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ003-004-291630-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0002.190129T2000Z-190130T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0007.190129T2000Z-190130T1000Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, and Fitchburg
322 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin MA and Northern Worcester MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Wednesday. Heaviest
  snow occurs from 7 pm this evening through 3 am Wednesday. Snow
  ends by 5 am Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially
  tonight. The snow should come to an end toward daybreak 
  Wednesday, but untreated roads will remain slippery for the 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

CTZ002-MAZ010>012-026-291630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0007.190129T2000Z-190130T1000Z/
Hartford CT-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Amherst, 
Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
322 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected which may mix with and change to rain near
  and southeast of Bradley CT to Worcester MA line. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 6 inches expected. Highest of those
  amounts will be found in the higher terrain.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT County. In Massachusetts, 
  Eastern Hampshire MA, Eastern Hampden MA, Southern Worcester 
  MA and Northern Middlesex MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Wednesday. Heaviest
  snow from 6 pm this evening through 3 am Wednesday morning. Snow
  ends by 5 am Wednesday. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially
  tonight. The snow should come to an end toward daybreak
  Wednesday, but untreated roads may remain slippery for the 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

Frank
3 follow-up statements
684 
WWUS41 KBOX 291454
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
954 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

MAZ002-008-009-292300-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0002.190129T2000Z-190130T1000Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
954 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Wednesday. 
  Heaviest snow occurs from 5 pm this evening through midnight. 
  Snow ends between 3 and 5 am Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult late this
  afternoon and especially tonight. The snow will end before 
  daybreak Wednesday, but untreated roads will remain slippery for
  the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

CTZ002-MAZ003-004-010>012-026-292300-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0007.190129T2000Z-190130T1000Z/
Hartford CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Greenfield, 
Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, 
Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
954 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected which may mix with and change to rain near
  and southeast of Bradley CT to Worcester MA line. Total snow
  accumulations 1 to 5 inches, with highest amounts over higher
  elevations 

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT County. In Massachusetts, 
  Eastern Hampshire MA, Eastern Hampden MA, Southern Worcester 
  MA and Northern Middlesex MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Wednesday. 
  Heaviest snow from 6 pm this evening through 3 am Wednesday 
  morning. Snow ends by 5 am Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially
  tonight. The snow will end before daybreak Wednesday, but 
  untreated roads may remain slippery for the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$
866 
WWUS41 KBOX 292104
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
404 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

MAZ002-008-009-300515-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190130T1000Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
404 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...Tonight. Snow ending after midnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult tonight. The
  snow will end after midnight, but untreated roads will remain 
  slippery for the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MAZ005-300515-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190130T1000Z/
Central Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Framingham and Lowell
404 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, heaviest near the
  NH border.

* WHERE...Central Middlesex MA County.

* WHEN...Tonight. Snow ending before daybreak.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions tonight. 
  The snow will end before daybreak Wednesday, but untreated roads
  may remain slippery for the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

CTZ002-MAZ003-004-010>012-026-300515-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190130T1000Z/
Hartford CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Greenfield, 
Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, 
Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
404 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, mixing with or changing to rain near and southeast
  of Bradley CT to Worcester MA line, before changing back to
  snow. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 inches, with highest 
  amounts over higher elevations in western and northern MA and 
  northwest Hartford county in CT.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT County. In Massachusetts, 
  Eastern Hampshire MA, Eastern Hampden MA, Southern Worcester 
  MA and Northern Middlesex MA Counties.

* WHEN...Tonight. Snow ending before daybreak.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions tonight. 
  The snow will end before daybreak Wednesday, but untreated roads
  may remain slippery for the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$
927 
WWUS41 KBOX 300829
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
329 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

MAZ002-008-009-301630-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190130T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WC.W.0002.190131T0400Z-190131T1400Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
329 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills
  between 25 and 30 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
the wind will create dangerously low wind chill values. Frostbite
can occur quickly and even hypothermia or death if precautions
are not taken. 

&&

$$

CTZ002-MAZ003>005-010>012-026-301630-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190130T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WC.Y.0002.190131T0400Z-190131T1400Z/
Hartford CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Greenfield, 
Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Amherst, 
Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, and Ayer
329 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills between 15
  and 25 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut and central, eastern 
  and western Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. 

&&

$$

CTZ003-004-MAZ006-007-013>017-RIZ001>004-301630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WC.Y.0002.190131T0400Z-190131T1400Z/
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, 
Lawrence, Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, 
Quincy, Taunton, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, 
West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, and West Warwick
329 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills between 15
  and 20 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, eastern, 
  northeastern and southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. 

&&

$$

Frank

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Jan 29, 1:22 AM EST, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 29, 1:22 AM EST, 2 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
122 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and cold weather tonight as it
builds across New England and heads to the Maritimes. Low
pressure is expected to track across s New England Tuesday
night, bringing a mix of snow and rain to much of the area,
with the heaviest snow to the Berkshires and north central
Massachusetts. Bone chilling cold late week into the early
weekend, a mild pattern is forecast beginning Sunday into the
following week with chances of rain and/or snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

120 am update...

High pressure will continue to shift further east into the
Canadian Maritimes overnight. Easterly flow just off the deck
will continue to allow for clouds to overspread most locations
from east to west through daybreak. Low temps will bottom out
well down into the teens across portions of western MA/northern
CT with even a few high single digit readings possible in the
normal coldest areas of western MA. Across eastern MA/RI, clouds
were already in place which should keep temps mainly in the
20s.

Dry weather should prevail through daybreak, but can not rule
out a few ocean effect flurries light snow showers across
portions of eastern MA towards 12z. Greatest risk would be on
the north shore, but not expecting much of an impact even if
they develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
*/ Highlights ...

 - Winter Storm Watch for East Slopes of Berkshires/N Worcester
   County Tue afternoon into Wed Morning

*/ Discussion ...

Our winter storm then arrives during the day Tuesday. A deep
mid level shortwave and surface low pressure system will sweep
through the northeast Tuesday-Wednesday.

Models agree that the parent low stays well to our northwest,
while a secondary low forms along the initial cold frontal
boundary as it approaches southern New England. This doesn't
look to be a hugely impactful storm from the perspective of low
elevation snow, winds, or coastal flooding due to the inland
track and the delay in deepening of the low until it reaches New
England.

The track that has come into focus over the last few model runs
takes this low directly over SNE or even slightly north. As
such it's quite warm and while most will start as snow, S/SE
winds quickly bring in above freezing air at the surface which
will change snow to rain up to generally a line from Hartford to
Worcester to Lawrence. Further to the northwest where the below
freezing air holds on snow should continue through the event.

Expecting generally 6-8 inches in the Berkshires by the time
precip moves out before 7 am Wednesday; 4-6 inches in the higher
elevations of the Worcester Hills. These locations with the
highest probability of staying purely snow are where Winter
Storm Watches continue. One area of uncertainty remains in just
how quickly and far north the warm air at the surface will make
it late Tuesday. Not a classic CAD setup, given the high north
of us is offset to the east, but hi-res guidance still wants to
signal some of that cold air drainage keeping portions of the
CT river valley and portions of northern MA colder than
currently forecast. Something to watch as we get closer to the
event. As the low picks up steam, downstream colder air wraps
around on the backside and will probably switch everyone back to
a brief period of snow as the system exits early Wednesday
morning.

As mentioned previously, the low really doesn't begin to deepen
until it is over or north of SNE and as such 925 mb winds don't
ramp up more than 25-35 kts until it is downstream of us. We
can expect wind gusts of 20-25 kts overnight, mainly along the
coasts.

On Wednesday, the storm moves offshore and ushers in a period
of very efficient CAA as a broad mid-upper level trough moves
overhead. 850 mb temperatures drop from around -3C Tuesday
evening to around -24 C late Wednesday. This will promote good
mixing down of a 35-45 kt LLJ moving overhead during the day.
Model soundings indicate potential for wind gusts of 30-40 kts.
Highs in the upper 20s will feel more like the low teens.
Another thing to monitor Wednesday will be an arctic front that
moves through from west to east during the afternoon and evening
hours. This will bring the potential for some brief but intense
snow squalls that could be hazardous to those on the road. As
the front sweeps through, a band of saturated air in the BL and
lots of low level instability accompanies it...1000-700 mb lapse
rates approach 9 C/KM along and ahead of the front which could
lead to brief but intense heavy snow, low visibilities, and
gusty winds. Behind the front temperatures will plunge as we
head into Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ Highlights ...

 - Bone chilling, record-breaking cold late week into weekend
 - WIND CHILL headlines likely
 - Pattern shift into early February, mild with zipping SW-NE storms
 - What side of the envelope, difficult to say on outcomes

*/ Overview ...

Pattern shake-up. W retreat H3 Pacific jet buffered by sub-tropical
Pacific activity echoing poleward. Latent heat release and higher
heights, favorable N Pacific low development shifts over Russia's
Kamchatka Peninsula. Noting 5-day ensemble means, H5 split flow out
over the NE Pacific / Gulf of Alaska, W CONUS H5 trof promotion with
SW winds across the CONUS. Recent S-carving PV-anomalies across E/NE
N America shunted N, favorable region of storm developments shifts
towards S Greenland. This as the stratospheric polar vortex (10 mb)
tightens up over the N pole.

So how does this play out for New England in the long run? Will be
watching for any surge of anomalously warmer sub-tropical W/SW winds
yielding +H85 temperature anomalies as the ECens suggests into early
February. But challenges into an ongoing phase 5-6 MJO into phase 7,
strength / magnitude of sub-tropical Pacific activity in question,
unclear the impact along with inherent challenges in
forecasting. A nod to NE Pacific split-flow regime, how energy
echoes downstream through a preferred W CONUS trof and, at
times, anticyclonic wave breaks extending from Hawaii into
western N America. The latter, an eye on H85 westerly anomalies
already noted S/E of Hawaii just N of the equator.

Seemingly along the thermal-cusp, will be watching for SW-NE weak
open-wave zipping lows, wobbling, wavering, a challenge to forecast.
New England will be a precip-type playground into the first week of
February. Unclear whether we tap into forecast +H85 temperature
anomalies, or are cut down by undercutting NE-winds with prevailing
preferred high pressure over SE Canada. Break down details, forecast
thinking below. Greater weighting towards EC / ECens as always.

*/ Discussion ...

Wednesday night through Saturday night ...

Cold. Plain and simple. Stout potential vorticity anomaly / trop-
fold contributing to deep surface cyclogenesis across Quebec. The
isallobaric / gradient wind response driving Arctic air across the
NE CONUS into the weekend. Have to watch for WIND CHILL headlines
for late Wednesday through Wednesday night, possibly through as late
as Friday. Cold air advection, steepening lapse rates over time up
to around H7 beneath the trop-fold 0z Thursday, will also have to
watch winds, efficiency for the top of the mixed layer to mix down,
whether we'll need WIND HEADLINES in addition to some scattered snow
shower activity. H85 temperatures falling down around -25C, can't
rule out record-breaking H925-7 temperatures within Chatham sounding
profiles per climatology.

A 1030+ high Saturday morn, cold exacerbated by radiational cooling,
especially for areas with deeper snowpack. May come close to record
lows, but a better shot of breaking record lowest high temperatures.

Sunday onward ...

SW-NE weak zipping lows grasping on conduits of sub-tropical air
while training along wavering thermal gradients. Little confidence
on outcomes, will have to wait and see. Numerous variables as to
whether snow pack remains which, if any undercutting cold NE flow
prevails in advance, would aid in maintaining frozen precip-types.
Expecting forward-thump, isentropic-upslope, baroclinic leaf events
with SW-NE lows. Generally weak, fast, with a possible decent sub-
tropical fetch, anywhere from snow to rain, just depends which side
of the envelope S New England will reside upon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...Moderate to high confidence. MVFR cigs will overspread
most of the region through 12z from east to west. Mainly MVFR
cigs continue for much of the day, but some low end VFR
conditions possible at times across eastern New England.

Other than perhaps a few ocean effect flurries/light snow
showers possible along the eastern MA coast this morning, dry
weather should prevail in most locales through mid afternoon.
Light to moderate snow should overspread areas northwest of a
Boston to Providence corridor between 20 and 00z. This will
result in IFR to even LIFR conditions developing.

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Snow roughly northwest
of a BDL...to ORH...to BED line. Southeast of this line, any
snow should be short-lived and flip to rain this evening. Bulk
of the precipitation ends from west to east between 6z and
10z...perhaps ending as a brief period of snow in some locales
before ending. Overall...low end MVFR-IFR conditions along the
coastal plain much of tonight, but with IFR to LIFR conditions
northwest of a BDL...to ORH...to BED line where mainly snow is
expected. Improvement to VFR may occur from west to east between
9z and 12z

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Low risk for
a light snow shower or early this morning. Otherwise, dry
weather prevails through about 23z. Mainly light rain arrives
this evening, perhaps beginning as a brief period of rain and
snow. Little if any accums anticipated on runways with temps
above freezing.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Snow
probably arrives after 21z or 22z. The snow probably mixes with
or changes to rain/sleet after 00z, which probably changes back
to snow after 3z or 4z before ending by 7z or 8z Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate Confidence

Wednesday...

Blustery W winds, gusts of around 25 to 35 kts, possibly as high
as 40 kts. SCT-BKN low-end VFR CIGs around 040, the threat of
SN/+SN showers with briefing IFR-LIFR impacts and quick snow
accumulations on any and all surfaces.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to
40 kt.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.

Tonight ...

High pressure builds over waters tonight with N/NE winds.

Tuesday into Tuesday night ...

Increasing SE flow Tue as high pressure heads to Maritimes and
low pressure tracks through eastern Great Lakes. Expect a weaker
low to develop Tue night and track through southern New England.
Winds should reach SCA on most of waters with gusts of 25-30kt
possible.

Wednesday...

Strong west winds increasing to 35-45 kts. Seas building to
9-11 ft on the southern waters, 6-8 ft on the eastern waters.
Arctic air sweeping in, the threat for moderate freezing spray
by late Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate Confidence

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with local gusts
up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Freezing spray likely,
slight chance of snow showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray likely,
slight chance of snow showers.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray
likely.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Freezing spray likely.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Freezing spray likely.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record LOWEST High Temperatures for Thursday, January 31st...

Boston ....... 12 (1920, 1935)
Hartford ..... 15 (1951)
Providence ... 15 (1935)
Worcester .... 11 (1951)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for MAZ002>004-008-009.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/BW
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Sipprell/EVT/BW
CLIMATE...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 28, 3:44 PM EST, 11 hours 38 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

MAZ002>004-008-009-292045-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts and
western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Wednesday into Thursday...

Dangerously cold wind chills are forecast. Wind chills of 15 to 25
degrees below zero are possible. Exposure to the elements over 30
minutes, there is the risk for frostbite and hypothermia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-010>024-026-RIZ001>008-292045-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-
Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Midday Tuesday into early Wednesday morning...

Snow will develop west to east beginning around noon, mixing with or
changing over to rain for areas along the Hartford, Worcester, and
Boston corridor southward. Potential impacts of slick, hazardous
travel Tuesday afternoon into evening, especially along the I 91
corridor and western halves of Massachusetts I 90 and Route 2.

Wednesday into Thursday...

Dangerously cold wind chills are forecast. Wind chills of 15 to 25
degrees below zero are possible. Exposure to the elements over 30
minutes, there is the risk for frostbite and hypothermia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-292045-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-292045-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
344 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Wednesday into Thursday...

There is a risk of gales.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 29, 3:22 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBOXFranklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester24 hr
Jan 29, 4:11 AM ESTHigh Wind WatchBOXBarnstable, Dukes, Nantucket23 hr
Jan 29, 4:13 AM ESTStorm WatchBOX23 hr
Jan 29, 3:44 PM ESTGale WarningBOX39 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Massachusetts, 2019Every winter storm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.