Alert archive / Massachusetts / River Flood Warnings in 2019

River Flood Warning 11, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

January 25, 2019Essex County, Middlesex County, Massachusetts

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this river flood warning at Jan 25, 2019, 2:01 PM EST for Essex County, Middlesex County, Massachusetts. It took effect at Jan 25, 2019, 5:20 PM EST. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 25, 2019, 2:01 PM EST (19:01 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 25, 2019, 5:20 PM EST
Expired
Jan 26, 2019, 9:19 AM EST
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Essex County, MA, Middlesex County, MA

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Shawsheen River at Wilmington (WLMM3). The gauge peaked at 7.15 ft at Jan 26, 2019, 1:00 AM EST.

actionminormoderate246801/2501/2601/27
Action stage
5 ft
Minor stage
7 ft
Moderate stage
8 ft
Major stage
10 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01100600, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

583 
WGUS41 KBOX 251901
FLWBOX


Bulletin...Immediate broadcast requested
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
201 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019



...The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton, MA has issued a 
Flood Warning for the following rivers in Massachusetts...

  Shawsheen River Near Wilmington affecting Essex and Middlesex 
  Counties

Runoff from the heavy rains on Thursday continue to flow into the 
Shawsheen River. The river is expected to reach minor flood stage
tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

MAC009-017-261800-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0011.190125T2220Z-190126T1800Z/
/WLMM3.1.ER.190125T2220Z.190126T0000Z.190126T1200Z.NO/
201 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton, MA has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Shawsheen River Near Wilmington.
* from this afternoon to Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Friday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by late this 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 7.1 feet by this evening. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river from Wilmington through Lawrence.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 7128 4264 7121 4261 7116 4252 7122


$$
3 follow-up statements
282 
WGUS81 KBOX 260356
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Massachusetts...

  Assabet River At Maynard affecting Middlesex and Worcester Counties

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode Island...

  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County
  Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County
  Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties
  Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct affecting Washington County
  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties
  Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Bristol and Plymouth 
  Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Massachusetts...Rhode Island...
  Shawsheen River Near Wilmington affecting Essex and Middlesex 
  Counties
  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County

  
High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend. Most river 
levels will fall below flood stage during the weekend.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.

&&

MAC017-027-260426-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190126T1800Z/
/MAYM3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Assabet River At Maynard.
* At 10:15 PM Friday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  4.9 feet tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...Minor lowland and backyard flooding is likely
  along reaches of the river in Maynard, Concord as well as Hudson. 
  Several river roads may also become covered in water.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 7159 4240 7162 4250 7136 4241 7135


$$

CTC007-270357-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0013.190127T0930Z-190128T2130Z/
/MHDC3.1.ER.190127T0930Z.190128T1100Z.190128T1530Z.UU/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* from late Saturday night to Monday afternoon...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  9:55 PM Friday the stage was 5.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Sunday morning 
  and continue to rise to near 7.6 feet by Monday morning.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flooding is expected in low lying sections 
  along the Connecticut River from Wethersfield and Glastonbury 
  downstream through Cromwell, Middletown and Portland. Boating 
  interests should prepare for a period of swift river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

MAC017-270000-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190127T0000Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.190124T2212Z.190125T0800Z.190126T1800Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sudbury River At Saxonville.
* until Saturday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Friday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham 
  Island Road near Heards Pond.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129


$$

RIC003-007-270357-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190127T2200Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.190124T2114Z.190125T0615Z.190127T1600Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawtuxet River At Cranston.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Friday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.2 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage late 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding will occur along Pioneer Avenue, 
  Bellows Street and Venturi Avenue in Warwick. Some homes are 
  impacted on Avery Road and Wellington Avenue in Cranston.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7139 4172 7137 4170 7155


$$

RIC009-270357-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190127T1800Z/
/WODR1.1.ER.190125T2145Z.190126T1200Z.190127T1200Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Friday the stage was 5.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.3 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...Floodwaters begin to spread onto Driftwood 
  Drive in Charlestown.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 7177 4145 7179 4148 7160 4139 7158


$$

CTC011-RIC009-270357-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190128T0000Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.190125T0425Z.190126T0600Z.190127T1800Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 7.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.7 feet by after
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Floodwaters approach lowest lying homes along
  Hiscox Road in Westerly. Along Route 3, flooding occurs at some 
  homes in French Village in Hopkinton.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

MAC005-023-270357-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190127T0800Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.190125T2156Z.190126T0600Z.190127T0200Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Taunton River Near Bridgewater.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Friday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.4 feet by after
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  late evening.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Backwater flooding from the Taunton River 
  will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro.  This 
  will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles.  
  Beware of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.  

&&

LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110


$$

MAC009-017-261800-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190126T1800Z/
/WLMM3.1.ER.190125T2106Z.190126T0600Z.190126T1200Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Shawsheen River Near Wilmington.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:30 PM Friday the stage was 7.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.2 feet by after
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river from Wilmington through Lawrence.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 7128 4264 7121 4261 7116 4252 7122


$$

RIC009-262024-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190126T2024Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.190125T0033Z.190125T1600Z.190126T1424Z.NO/
1056 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wood River At Hope Valley.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Friday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...In Richmond, the Wood River renders portions 
  of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In Hopkinton,
  the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main Street.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$
271 
WGUS81 KBOX 260903
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode Island...
  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County
  Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County
  Shawsheen River Near Wilmington affecting Essex and Middlesex 
  Counties
  Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties
  Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct affecting Washington County
  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties
  Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Bristol and Plymouth 
  Counties
  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County


High pressure builds over the region this weekend, bringing dry weather.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.

&&

CTC007-270903-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0013.190127T0930Z-190128T2130Z/
/MHDC3.1.ER.190127T0930Z.190128T1100Z.190128T1530Z.UU/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  2:55 AM Saturday the stage was 5.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by early Sunday 
  and continue to rise to near 7.6 feet by Monday morning.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flooding is expected in low lying sections 
  along the Connecticut River from Wethersfield and Glastonbury 
  downstream through Cromwell, Middletown and Portland. Boating 
  interests should prepare for a period of swift river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

MAC017-270000-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190127T0000Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.190124T2212Z.190125T0800Z.190126T1800Z.NO/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sudbury River At Saxonville.
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 AM Saturday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham 
  Island Road near Heards Pond.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129


$$

MAC009-017-261800-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190126T1800Z/
/WLMM3.1.ER.190125T2106Z.190126T0600Z.190126T1200Z.NO/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Shawsheen River Near Wilmington.
* until this afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:30 AM Saturday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river from Wilmington through Lawrence.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 7128 4264 7121 4261 7116 4252 7122


$$

RIC003-007-270903-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190127T2200Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.190124T2114Z.190125T0615Z.190127T1600Z.NO/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawtuxet River At Cranston.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:45 AM Saturday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday late morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding will occur along Pioneer Avenue, 
  Bellows Street and Venturi Avenue in Warwick. Some homes are 
  impacted on Avery Road and Wellington Avenue in Cranston.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7139 4172 7137 4170 7155


$$

RIC009-270903-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190127T1800Z/
/WODR1.1.ER.190125T2145Z.190126T1200Z.190127T1200Z.NO/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:45 AM Saturday the stage was 5.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.3 feet by this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...Floodwaters begin to spread onto Driftwood 
  Drive in Charlestown.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 7177 4145 7179 4148 7160 4139 7158


$$

CTC011-RIC009-270903-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190128T0000Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.190125T0425Z.190126T1200Z.190127T1800Z.NO/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:00 AM Saturday the stage was 7.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.7 feet by this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Floodwaters approach lowest lying homes along
  Hiscox Road in Westerly. Along Route 3, flooding occurs at some 
  homes in French Village in Hopkinton.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

MAC005-023-270800-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190127T0800Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.190125T2156Z.190126T0745Z.190127T0200Z.NO/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Taunton River Near Bridgewater.
* until late tonight...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:45 AM Saturday the stage was 8.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Backwater flooding from the Taunton River 
  will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro.  This 
  will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles.  
  Beware of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.  

&&

LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110


$$

RIC009-262024-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190126T2024Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.190125T0033Z.190125T1600Z.190126T1424Z.NO/
403 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wood River At Hope Valley.
* until this afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 AM Saturday the stage was 5.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late this morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...In Richmond, the Wood River renders portions 
  of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In Hopkinton,
  the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main Street.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$
866 
WGUS81 KBOX 261419
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
919 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Massachusetts...

  Shawsheen River Near Wilmington affecting Essex and Middlesex 
  Counties

  
The Shawsheen River near Wilmington has fallen below flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

MAC009-017-261449-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190126T1800Z/
/WLMM3.1.ER.190125T2106Z.190126T0600Z.190126T1230Z.NO/
919 AM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Shawsheen River Near Wilmington.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 6.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  7:30 AM Saturday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.9 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river from Wilmington through Lawrence.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 7128 4264 7121 4261 7116 4252 7122


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 25, 1:24 PM EST, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 1:24 PM EST, 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
124 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air and dry weather move into Southern New England today
and Saturday as weak high pressure builds. Dry weather continues
Sunday and Monday but with more seasonable air. The weather
turns unsettled Monday night into Tuesday night with a wintry
mix that could briefly change to rain across portions of the
region before changing back to snow late next week as some of
the coldest air of the season may move in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM update...

Very pleasant mid winter day across the region with temps in the
upper 30s and lower 40s along with some sunshine in between the
cold air advection strato-cu clouds. Although feels a tad colder
given a modest WSW wind 10-20 mph. Few snow flurries across
eastern Worcester county into northeast MA at 1 PM. More
scattered snow showers/flurries across NY state that will advect
into northwest MA later this afternoon. This activity is tied to
some lake effect connection as well as a mid level short wave
approaching the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

Tonight...

Dry weather continues. Weak high pressure builds over the region
bringing light winds and radiational cooling. Temperatures
upstream favor min temps in the teens, possibly upper single
numbers in northwest Mass.

Saturday...

High pressure continues to bring dry weather. A weak shortwave
aloft and weak cold front at the surface edge into Southern New
England and bring enough moisture aloft for partly to mostly
cloudy skies, but too much dry air for precipitation. Mixing
reaches at least 900 mb, possibly 850 mb. Temperatures in the
mixed layer will be -12C to -16C, supporting max sfc temps
roughly 25 to 35.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Highlights ...

* Isolated snow or rain shower Sunday into Monday
* May see snow and/or a wintry mix Tuesday into Wednesday
* Arctic front may bring coldest temperatures of the season
  late next week

Overview and model preferences...
Overall, no significant changes at the synoptic scale with
latest model guidance update. There are some differences
beginning mid next week regarding the secondary lobe of the
polar vortex rotating toward New England, but more on that in a
bit. The key to the pattern is a deep longwave trof whose
baseline will rest between the Ohio and Mississippi river
valleys, pushing gradually east as the two lobes of the vortex
force the baseline further E and lead to modest negative tilt.
Through Tue, will baseline the forecast with a consensus blend
of available guidance, but lean more heavily on the slower ECMWF
and its ensembles thereafter, given the GFS appears too
progressive for the pattern it claims.

Details...

Sun night into Mon...
The first lobe of the polar vortex rotates southward across the
Great Lakes before turning rapidly northward toward QC as yet
another lobe enters the Canadian Prairie. The parent sfc low
pres associated with this wave follows suit, remaining well NW
of New England. However as the wave takes on a negative tilt,
noting a very weak kink in heights suggestive of offshore
baroclinic leaf and sfc cyclogenesis. New England therefore
resides the broad subsidence between the parent and developing
coastal wave. Warm advection is noted in between, with very weak
lift along with a modest PWAT plume around 0.5 inches, which
may promote some localized SHSN/SHRA (diurnal temp swings will
dictate). Will need to monitor the offshore track/progression as
the trowal precip shield is a very near miss. For now, slight
to low end chance POPs are favored. Temps generally above
seasonal normals thanks to the warm advection, but cool enough
to support at least some minor snow accums during the
evenings/overnights if observed.

Tue into Wed...
1025mb arctic high pres settles across new England late Mon
into Mon night. The orientation of this high will be critical as
isentropic lift associated with a warm front, attendant to low
pres across the Great Lakes, which itself is associated with
the secondary lobe of the polar vortex moving E through the
longwave trof. Column thermal temps support a p-type of mainly
SN to sleet to freezing rain as mid lvl warm air advects
poleward. Noting a signal for cold air damming in the mass
fields, supporting the risk for a wintry mix to start. Using the
more less progressive ECMWF also proposes a risk for frontal
wave development, which, after lower lvl warming could
reintroduce cold air before exiting. Given the depth of the
longwave trof, this feature also has Gulf of Mexico
connections, suggesting higher moisture and PWATs closer to 1.00
inches leading to high liquid values. Overall, something to
monitor through the weekend as timing, track and secondary
development will determine the amount of SN/PL or FZRA.

Late week...
With the second arctic push, the longwave trof shifts far
enough E to introduce direct conduit to arctic airmass. Noting
deep H85/H92 temp anomalies of -15C to -20C. Cyclonic curvature
and sheared shortwaves will also need to be watched, but
overall, anticipate bitter cold to return by the late week time
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

130 PM update...

Thru 00z...

Mainly VFR but marginal MVFR-VFR at times in scattered
flurries/snow showers mainly across northern MA. Modest WSW wind
10-20 kt.

After 00z...

VFR with a wind shift to the WNW 10-20 kt.

Saturday...

Mainly VFR with a few scattered flurries/snow showers possible.
Light SW wind.

Saturday night...

VFR but trending toward MVFR late. Mainly dry but can/t rule out
isolated flurries/snow showers.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. VFR.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF. VFR.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Sunday through Monday: Mainly VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible late. Breezy.
Chance SN.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN,
chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Today... West wind gusting 20-25 kt. Seas 5-10 feet, mostly over
the exposed waters. Dry weather and good visibility.

Tonight... High pressure builds over the waters. West winds
diminish overnight. Seas 5-9 feet on the exposed waters,
diminishing overnight.

Saturday... Winds less than 25 kt. Seas 5-6 feet on the outer
waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Monday and Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5
ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of rain.
Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Run off from Thursday's 1-3 inch rainstorm caused some
lingering areal flooding overnight. This is moving out of the
smaller streams and into the main stem rivers. Several forecast
points have rising levels and are either at or approaching minor
flooding.

Of concern... Farmington at Simsbury, Assabet River at Maynard,
Taunton River near Bridgewater, Sudbury River at Saxonville,
Pawtuxet River at Cranston, Pawcatuck River at Westerly, Wood
River at Hope Valley. Also monitoring the Connecticut River at
Hartford and Middle Haddam.

River levels in these areas will be cresting today and Saturday.
A couple may take until Sunday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ230-236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Doody
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Nocera/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Doody
HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 25, 3:52 AM EST, 10 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
352 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-260900-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
352 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-260900-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
352 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 24, 9:07 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBOX46 hr
Jan 24, 9:31 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXFranklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester3 hr
Jan 25, 12:34 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXFranklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester3 hr
Jan 25, 1:11 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBOXMiddlesex, Worcester54 hr
Jan 25, 1:11 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBOXWorcester4 hr
Jan 25, 1:11 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBOXBristol, Plymouth36 hr
Jan 25, 4:27 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXFranklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester3 hr
Jan 25, 4:32 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXNorfolk2 hr
Jan 25, 7:09 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBOXHampden, Hampshire, Worcester111 min
Jan 25, 12:08 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningBOXWorcester7 hr
Jan 25, 2:13 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningBOXBristol, Plymouth59 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Massachusetts, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.