Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
753 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system with unstable air will track across NY and
PA tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
weather will remain unsettled through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
630 pm update...
Just minor changes. Showers and severe thunderstorms continue.

3 pm update...
A weak surface trough in eastern Ohio will move slowly east and
weaken further tonight. A short wave will move through our area
into tonight. In addition an upper level jet is on the east
coast providing added lift. With surface heating today, cape has
increased to 1500 in the far west and southwest. Deep shear in
the same area is 40 kts. This area coincides with the better
thunderstorm coverage and the slight chance of severe on the day
1 from the storm prediction center. In the northeast still
stable and dry. Showers and thunderstorms will push northeast
into tonight with the short wave. The slow movement of the
thunderstorms has caused heavy rain to add up to 2 or 3 inches
in Luzerne County with flooded roads. Will need to watch for
training as more storms develop. pwats around 1.25" with slow
movement this afternoon increasing tonight. Another short wave
late tonight will increase the coverage across Syracuse and
Utica. With the clouds and high dewpoints, low temperatures will
be mostly in the low 60s.

Friday will be similar with more showers and thunderstorms.
Diurnal heating will help with the instability as temperatures
rise to the upper 70s. Forcing will be weaker than today.

Friday night showers and thunderstorms taper off with the lack
of heating. Lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 pm update...
Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the persistent
chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with
temperatures warming well above average.

Large scale synoptic pattern will remain defined by weak cyclonic
flow with embedded short waves rotating across the eastern Great
Lakes and Northeast through the weekend. The first, slightly more
amplified, wave will track e/ne through central NY on Saturday, and
combine with modest instability to trigger more showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Saturday
will climb into the lower 80s with dew points in the upper 60s
making it feel like the mid 80s.

Conditions will be even hotter on Sunday with highs reaching into
the mid to upper 80s...close to 90. The highest heat indices will be
in the lower 90s along the lake plain of the nrn Finger Lakes and
in the valley locations of the srn tier of NY and ne PA.

A weaker wave rotates through on Sunday, but should still be able to
combine with modest to high instability by the afternoon to generate
more showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 pm update...
A broad and relatively flat upper ridge will build across much of
the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with continued warmth and slightly
drier weather conditions likely. The overall flow pattern will be
flat across the ern Great Lakes into nrn New England...so the
increased heat and humidity will combine with weak ripples along the
nrn periphery of the ridge to produce slight chances for
thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening.

An upper low over Hudson Bay will eventually rotate e/sewd by the
middle of the week with a spoke of energy dropping south across the
Great Lakes into the Northeast. This wave will have much cooler and
drier air associated with it and likely interact with the warm and
humid air mass in place to trigger showers and storms along and
ahead of the front. Temperatures will still remain near normal and
very pleasant...into the upper 70s and lower 80s...behind the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 pm update...

convection has moved into the entire area. MVFR vsby
restrictions in heavy rain. Brief MVFR cig restrictions in a
few. ELM gusted to 28 kts. Thunderstorms will continue at all
sites for another 2 or 3 hours. After that mostly dry except
showers at RME.

Restrictions likely late tonight at all sites. Most
restrictions will be due to cigs falling to MVFR but at ELM
vsbys should also be MVFR. AVP/BGM/ITH should fall to fuel
alternate MVFR 10 to 15z. All NY sites go to VFR by 18z.

Tonight winds light and variable. Winds turn south late
tonight and continue through Friday.

Outlook...
Friday night to Saturday...MVFR to VFR conditions with
scattered showers possible.

Sunday to Tuesday...Restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
301 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

NYZ009-018-036-037-045-046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-161915-
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Otsego-
Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
301 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ015>017-022>025-044-055-056-PAZ038-039-043-044-047-161915-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-
Cortland-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-
301 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and evening. A few
thunderstorms could have damaging winds and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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