Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
310 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms expected through this weekend with
warming temperatures into early next week. The weather will
remain unsettled and warm through at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
310 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the scattered
showers and thunderstorms and the potential for strong to possibly
severe weather this evening and again late Saturday.

Fast-moving upper level short wave currently positioned over
OH/MI/Lake Erie will move through NY/PA this evening and interact
with modest instability and deep layer shear to produce and enhance
showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Current radar loop shows fairly widespread rain showers with a few
isolated thunderstorms across much of the region. There is a weak
capping inversion around 10k ft that is being realized within the
atmosphere and causing some of the convection to dissipate, or
remain relatively immature. Satellite visible/infrared imagery
showing a fair amount of convective debris overtaking the
region...which is likely limiting the amt of instability. However,
the short wave upstream will most likely be the triggering mechanism
to enhance the strength of the convection into this evening. A few
thunderstorms will become strong to possibly severe with the main
threats being damaging winds and heavy downpours.

The upper wave and resulting convection is expected to shift to the
east tonight and allow for weak ridging during the overnight hours.
This will allow for generally quiet weather conditions later tonight
and into Saturday morning. Some clearing of the skies is
possible...which will lead to favorable conditions for patchy fog
tonight.

Conditions improve through Saturday morning with fog lifting and
mixing out by noon. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and
lower to mid 80s by the afternoon...and with dew points in the upper
60s...sfc based instability will increase and allow for the
development of more scattered showers and storms. The passage of
another upper level short wave later in the day Saturday will allow
for more enhancement of the convection into the evening hours. A few
storms may become strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM update... Surface high pressure/ridging will remain over
the region into the start of next week. Zonal flow aloft with
multiple weak waves running through will give us a chance for
showers and storms, but activity will be mostly focused near
peak heating hours and into the evening. Heat and humidity will
also be on the rise with moist return flow in the low levels.
Heat indices climb into the low 90s Sunday afternoon and
possibly heat advisory criteria into the upper 90s on Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM Update... Tuesday will be similar to Sunday and Monday with
diurnal showers and storms and hot/humid conditions. Deep upper
low/trough will dig across Ontario and the axis should be
centered over the NE U.S by Wednesday night with an associated
surface cold front pushing through. Showers and storms are
expected with the front Wednesday into Thursday morning...but much
drier and cooler conditions should prevail by Thursday night
into Friday as strong surface high pressure builds in.
Temperatures will still remain near normal and very
pleasant...into the upper 70s and lower 80s...behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ceilings will remain BKN and MVFR/low-end VFR through this
afternoon with scattered rain showers developing into scattered
thunderstorms after 20Z. An upper wave moving through today will
enhance the potential for a few strong TS with gusty winds and
heavy downpours possible. Conditions are should dry out behind
the convection later tonight, which may lead to low stratus
between 700 and 2500 feet and patchy fog. If there is enough
convective debris hanging around through the night into Sat
morning, the potential for fog will go way down...and conditions
will likely remain MVFR/VFR. At this time, leaning more toward
clearing with eventual fog. Conditions improve through the
morning hours...becoming VFR after 15-17Z.

Winds will be light from the south around 5-10 kt through the
forecast period with the exception of gusty and erratic winds
near thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon and evening...MVFR to VFR conditions with
scattered showers and TS possible.

Sunday to Wednesday...Restrictions possible in showers and
storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
312 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-171915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
312 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue into this evening. A few storms may
become strong to severe with the main threats being heavy downpours
and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday as a
slow moving storm drops across NY. The main threats will be damaging
winds and heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
558 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

NYZ045-046-057-162245-
Otsego NY-Chenango NY-Delaware NY-
558 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN CHENANGO COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Afton, or 14 miles northwest of Deposit, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Bainbridge, Masonville, Unadilla and Youngs.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4224 7554 4231 7556 4239 7535 4225 7528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 252DEG 10KT 4226 7554

Kistner