Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...SEE BELOW...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

..Severe weather outbreak likely this afternoon...

* Synoptic Overview: The synoptic pattern could hardly be more
  favorable for a Plains severe weather outbreak with veering wind
  profiles, tons of instability, yada yada yada (it's all there).

* Mesoscale: Morning convection continues early this afternoon
  northwest of a stationary boundary that basically lays across US
  60 from Amarillo to Canadian.  This boundary desperately wants to
  lift north as a warm front in response to the approaching upr
  system, but continues to be reinforced by outflow from ongoing
  convection and is basically lodged in place.  SE of this bndry, an
  explosive warm sector is developing with MLCAPE values that may
  eventually push to near 5000 J/kg in the SE TX Panhandle!
  Effective shear values will be an eye popping 60-70 kts.  Down
  lower, 0-1 shear and effective helicity values will be sufficient
  for low level rotation, especially given strong stretching aided
  by 0-3km MLCAPE values pushing 250 J/kg.  While the warm sector
  will be plenty dangerous itself, the aforementioned stalling
  outflow boundary may even result in an enhanced tornado threat
  from roughly Amarillo to Pampa if it is able to modify
  thermodynamically before any storms ride it.

* Timing: Based on recent satellite/obs trends showing an area of
  strong pre-dryline convergence, surfaced based convection in our
  area should begin in earnest somewhere 30 miles either side of I-
  27 by 2 PM. The worst of the threat will be over for the
  Panhandles by around 9 PM, though another round of storms could
  result in a flash flooding threat in the eastern TX Panhandle
  through midnight.

* Caveats: There aren't many.  The main caveat would be with a weak
  EML/cool-ish temps at h7 allowing too much convection, with storm
  interactions possible.  However, in the Panhandles, when in doubt,
  discrete wins out (or at least quasi-discrete).

* Threat Area: The greatest threat is confined by US 60 to the
  north, with all areas along and southeast of US 60 under the gun,
  including Amarillo, Canyon, Pampa, Canadian, Wellington, Wheeler,
  Clarendon, Miami, Claude, and Shamrock.

* Hazards: The potential for strong tornadoes is the greatest
  concern, but everything from very large hail (bigger than
  baseballs possible), damaging straight line winds, and flooding
  are all parts of this event.

Simpson

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Please refer to the mesoscale discussion for updates on weather
for today.

As the upper level system moves into northern Kansas by tomorrow
morning, residual thunderstorms may still be across the northern
Panhandles, but precipitation chances will decrease through
Tuesday.

Active weather is expected to continue through the remainder of
the forecast period. With a positive tilted trough in the west and
a large anti-cyclonic flow in the east, above average PWAT values
will funnel in Gulf of Mexico airmass into the region and with
diurnal heating, we may see several days of thunderstorms across
the Panhandles. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.
High temperatures throughout the week into the weekend will rise
into the mid and upper 80s.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely throughout most of the 18Z TAF
period. in conjunction with low cigs, TSRA conditions are most
concerning from the start of the TAF period 03Z-06Z Tuesday.
Localized chaotic winds are possible within a passing
thunderstorm over ther TAF site. Low cigs will continue through
12Z Tuesday and then eventually clear out from south to north as
the main low pressure system exits the region. TAf sites might
become VFR before the end of the TAF period but exact timing of
clouds will be updated in future TAFs. General winds will be
ranging from SE-SW between 10-20 kts.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for the following
     zones: Beaver...Texas.

&&

9/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-210700-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning, some of which may be
severe, with hail being the main threat this morning.

Severe weather will become more widespread this afternoon with
damaging winds, large hail, flooding, and tornadoes all possible.
These threats may continue through tonight.

Flash flooding will also be possible through tonight with
localized very heavy rainfall possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Flash flooding is possible Tuesday morning with
localized very heavy rainfall possible.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night through the
weekend. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
144 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 AM     HAIL             2 NNE BORGER            35.69N 101.39W
05/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT OF 1 INCH HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900688

LELIZALD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
145 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ003-007-008-201915-
Hutchinson TX-Hansford TX-Moore TX-
145 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUTCHINSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD AND EAST CENTRAL MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Pringle, or 20 miles northwest of Borger, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.  Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
travel.

Locations impacted include...
Spearman, Morse and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 10109 3599 10109 3578 10162 3593 10174
      3626 10115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 239DEG 49KT 3591 10159

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
153 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ015-201930-
Wheeler TX-
153 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Allison, or 20 miles west of Cheyenne, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Briscoe, Wheeler, Allison and Twitty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for the Panhandle
of Texas.

LAT...LON 3523 10043 3561 10042 3562 10000 3523 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 239DEG 49KT 3554 10003

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
206 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     FLOOD            2 SW DUMAS              35.85N 101.99W
05/20/2019                   MOORE              TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            STREET FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900689

LELIZALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
309 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             3 N STINNETT            35.87N 101.44W
05/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         TX   PUBLIC

            LATE REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL NORTH OF STINNETT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900690

LELIZALD