Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
556 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs:

Complicated set of TAFs this morning due to convection across the
Panhandles. KDHT and KGUY are more likely to be impacted this
morning with thunderstorm activity as KAMA may be delayed until
late morning/early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will likely go
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Hard to say at this
time how the terminals will be impacted exactly, but MVFR
conditions may be common today for low ceilings due to
thunderstorms. We should get a break late this morning with a
second round of development this afternoon. Activity may be
stronger east of the terminals. Additionally, a strong low level
jet has develop around 60 knots from the south/southeast at about
1500 AGL which should impact KAMA for non-convective conditions.
Front will pass through later today and we will generally clear
out from west to east.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Forecast discussion will focus on the immediate potentially high
impact threat of severe weather today. Will briefly discuss the long
term, but this discussion will not go into too much detail outside
of the first 24 hours.

Long Term (Tuesday onward): There may be the need for a Wind
Advisory Tuesday for strong southerly/westerly wind speeds.
Thereafter, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will return mid week
and go through the weekend. Chances are severe weather will return
during this time period, but at the moment its too early to say
the level of which these threats may be across the Panhandles.
Continue to expect severe weather as conditions remain favorable
this Spring.

Getting back to the first 24 hours: We are still on track for
perhaps multiple rounds of severe weather today. Its a complex
forecast due to the different levels of storm mode and phases
between potential "rounds". We may have a brief lull from the
morning convection which will allow for the atmosphere to recover,
and we may be looking at a potentially high impact weather day
this afternoon and evening due to favorable atmospheric conditions
for discrete supercells. All hazards are in play today.
Confidence is high for severe weather to occur across the forecast
area today into at least parts of tonight, especially
southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle where supercell
development is most likely. Extra caution should be taken today.

Convection is already ongoing this morning as a strong closed H5 low
enters the Desert Southwest region. This will place the Panhandles
in a favorable area for upscale growth of thunderstorms through
tonight. A strong low level jet is anticipated to develop this
morning around 40-60 knots. Strong theta-e advection will aid in the
development of cluster/multicell thunderstorms from isentropic lift
this morning. Above a moist stable layer there is ample CAPE for
severe weather. This combined with strong vertical shear will allow
for  at least some strong updrafts capable of mostly severe hail
(perhaps large hail). The CAPE in this elevated layer has decreased
from 24 hours ago, but MUCAPE is still around 1000-2000 J/kg, which
will be enough to create  potential travel impacts during the
morning commute hours. This is especially true for an area in the
western and northwestern parts of the forecast area where effective
bulk shear of 40-60 knots is anticipated with relatively low hail
temp heights of -20C (-30C) around ~20K (~23K) feet. Morning
convection could very well push out by late morning/early
afternoon and give us sort of a lull period as surface low
develops across northeast New Mexico/southeast Colorado. From the
low an associated warm front may be pushing north through the
morning hours. This will place us in a very moist warm sector
ahead of an approaching dryline from the west in the afternoon
hours. Dewpoints are anticipated to reach the 60s to near 70 for a
good portion on the Texas Panhandle. This setup resembles a
familiar triple point. The warm sector will be the focus of the
next round in the afternoon to evening hours.

As initial thunderstorms push out and the atmosphere begins to
recover, this is when a mesoscale update may be needed to pinpoint
initiation for the next round as this may be a higher end impact day
across the Panhandles, especially south/southeastern parts of the
Texas Panhandle. The dryline may not advance all the way into
eastern parts of the Panhandles before getting washed up in an
advancing Pacific cold front, but initiation along the dryline
and/or initiation due to convective temperatures (or both) within
the warm sector will allow for redeveloping this afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate very high CAPE values due to steep
lapse rates and low LCL heights. This combined with effective
shear around 60 knots will be supportive of strong rotating
updrafts. Surface wind direction with the mesoscale update may be
key. Forecast soundings are showing low values for SRH in the
0-1km range, but still is due to a southwesterly wind, but not
sure this will actually be the case as winds may be more backed
leading to higher helicity values in the low levels, especially
just ahead of the dryline. Threat for tornadoes increases moreso
if a dryline bulge/kink develops this afternoon. Nevertheless,
ingredients are primed for tornadic development this afternoon,
especially along and near the I-40 corridor in eastern parts of
the Texas Panhandle and south of this area where LCL heights could
be around 1000 meters, which is low by Panhandle standards.
Confidence is high for potentially significant severe weather
today, with all hazards in play today given the supercell
potential. Stay tuned tuned for updates today as the atmosphere
responds to morning convection and a mesoscale updates becomes
warranted.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
306 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-202015-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
306 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 AM CDT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning, some of which may be
severe, with hail being the main threat this morning.

Late this morning and afternoon severe weather will become more
widespread and potentially higher end with damaging winds, large
hail, flooding, and tornadoes all possible. These threats could
go into at least parts of the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night through the
weekend. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely on Monday.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
501 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ002-TXZ002-003-007-201100-
Texas OK-Sherman TX-Hansford TX-Moore TX-
501 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN
SHERMAN...NORTHWESTERN HANSFORD AND NORTH CENTRAL MOORE COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 501 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sunray, or 12 miles northeast of Dumas, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sunray, Gruver and Hardesty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma...and the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3590 10183 3602 10200 3673 10129 3655 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1001Z 221DEG 44KT 3602 10186

Schneider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
513 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ001-002-006-007-011-201115-
Hartley TX-Sherman TX-Dallam TX-Moore TX-Oldham TX-
513 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OLDHAM...SOUTHERN
SHERMAN...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM...NORTHWESTERN MOORE AND EASTERN
HARTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 513 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Channing, or 27 miles south of Dalhart, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dumas, Hartley, Cactus, Sunray and Channing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3634 10204 3617 10162 3612 10162 3553 10246
      3560 10285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 216DEG 47KT 3566 10250

Schneider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ006-007-011-016-201230-
Hartley TX-Deaf Smith TX-Moore TX-Oldham TX-
629 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OLDHAM...NORTH CENTRAL
DEAF SMITH...WEST CENTRAL MOORE AND SOUTHEASTERN HARTLEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 629 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles northwest of Vega to 10 miles
southwest of Adrian. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dumas, Hartley, Channing and Adrian.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3593 10245 3592 10192 3516 10257 3510 10284
      3519 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 210DEG 43KT 3541 10258 3517 10279

Schneider