Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Amarillo, TX

357 
WGUS74 KAMA 201502
FFSAMA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1002 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXC195-233-357-393-201730-
/O.CON.KAMA.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190520T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hutchinson TX-Hansford TX-Roberts TX-Ochiltree TX-
1002 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
HUTCHINSON...HANSFORD...NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS AND WESTERN OCHILTREE
COUNTIES...

At 1001 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Two to four inches of rain have already
fallen.  Flash flooding is expected.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Borger, Spearman, Fritch, Stinnett, Gruver, Sanford, Morse,
Farnsworth, Waka and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 10090 3580 10100 3563 10121 3562 10162
      3599 10162 3650 10126 3650 10097

$$

Bieda

497 
WGUS74 KAMA 201635
FFSAMA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1135 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXC195-233-357-393-201730-
/O.CON.KAMA.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190520T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hutchinson TX-Hansford TX-Roberts TX-Ochiltree TX-
1135 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
HUTCHINSON...HANSFORD...NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS AND WESTERN OCHILTREE
COUNTIES...

At 1133 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding due to 
heavy rain. Three to five inches of rain have already fallen. Flash 
flooding is expected.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Borger, Spearman, Fritch, Stinnett, Gruver, Sanford, Morse,
Farnsworth, Waka and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 10090 3580 10100 3563 10121 3562 10162
      3599 10162 3650 10126 3650 10097

$$

Bieda

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
556 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs:

Complicated set of TAFs this morning due to convection across the
Panhandles. KDHT and KGUY are more likely to be impacted this
morning with thunderstorm activity as KAMA may be delayed until
late morning/early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will likely go
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Hard to say at this
time how the terminals will be impacted exactly, but MVFR
conditions may be common today for low ceilings due to
thunderstorms. We should get a break late this morning with a
second round of development this afternoon. Activity may be
stronger east of the terminals. Additionally, a strong low level
jet has develop around 60 knots from the south/southeast at about
1500 AGL which should impact KAMA for non-convective conditions.
Front will pass through later today and we will generally clear
out from west to east.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Forecast discussion will focus on the immediate potentially high
impact threat of severe weather today. Will briefly discuss the long
term, but this discussion will not go into too much detail outside
of the first 24 hours.

Long Term (Tuesday onward): There may be the need for a Wind
Advisory Tuesday for strong southerly/westerly wind speeds.
Thereafter, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will return mid week
and go through the weekend. Chances are severe weather will return
during this time period, but at the moment its too early to say
the level of which these threats may be across the Panhandles.
Continue to expect severe weather as conditions remain favorable
this Spring.

Getting back to the first 24 hours: We are still on track for
perhaps multiple rounds of severe weather today. Its a complex
forecast due to the different levels of storm mode and phases
between potential "rounds". We may have a brief lull from the
morning convection which will allow for the atmosphere to recover,
and we may be looking at a potentially high impact weather day
this afternoon and evening due to favorable atmospheric conditions
for discrete supercells. All hazards are in play today.
Confidence is high for severe weather to occur across the forecast
area today into at least parts of tonight, especially
southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle where supercell
development is most likely. Extra caution should be taken today.

Convection is already ongoing this morning as a strong closed H5 low
enters the Desert Southwest region. This will place the Panhandles
in a favorable area for upscale growth of thunderstorms through
tonight. A strong low level jet is anticipated to develop this
morning around 40-60 knots. Strong theta-e advection will aid in the
development of cluster/multicell thunderstorms from isentropic lift
this morning. Above a moist stable layer there is ample CAPE for
severe weather. This combined with strong vertical shear will allow
for  at least some strong updrafts capable of mostly severe hail
(perhaps large hail). The CAPE in this elevated layer has decreased
from 24 hours ago, but MUCAPE is still around 1000-2000 J/kg, which
will be enough to create  potential travel impacts during the
morning commute hours. This is especially true for an area in the
western and northwestern parts of the forecast area where effective
bulk shear of 40-60 knots is anticipated with relatively low hail
temp heights of -20C (-30C) around ~20K (~23K) feet. Morning
convection could very well push out by late morning/early
afternoon and give us sort of a lull period as surface low
develops across northeast New Mexico/southeast Colorado. From the
low an associated warm front may be pushing north through the
morning hours. This will place us in a very moist warm sector
ahead of an approaching dryline from the west in the afternoon
hours. Dewpoints are anticipated to reach the 60s to near 70 for a
good portion on the Texas Panhandle. This setup resembles a
familiar triple point. The warm sector will be the focus of the
next round in the afternoon to evening hours.

As initial thunderstorms push out and the atmosphere begins to
recover, this is when a mesoscale update may be needed to pinpoint
initiation for the next round as this may be a higher end impact day
across the Panhandles, especially south/southeastern parts of the
Texas Panhandle. The dryline may not advance all the way into
eastern parts of the Panhandles before getting washed up in an
advancing Pacific cold front, but initiation along the dryline
and/or initiation due to convective temperatures (or both) within
the warm sector will allow for redeveloping this afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate very high CAPE values due to steep
lapse rates and low LCL heights. This combined with effective
shear around 60 knots will be supportive of strong rotating
updrafts. Surface wind direction with the mesoscale update may be
key. Forecast soundings are showing low values for SRH in the
0-1km range, but still is due to a southwesterly wind, but not
sure this will actually be the case as winds may be more backed
leading to higher helicity values in the low levels, especially
just ahead of the dryline. Threat for tornadoes increases moreso
if a dryline bulge/kink develops this afternoon. Nevertheless,
ingredients are primed for tornadic development this afternoon,
especially along and near the I-40 corridor in eastern parts of
the Texas Panhandle and south of this area where LCL heights could
be around 1000 meters, which is low by Panhandle standards.
Confidence is high for potentially significant severe weather
today, with all hazards in play today given the supercell
potential. Stay tuned tuned for updates today as the atmosphere
responds to morning convection and a mesoscale updates becomes
warranted.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
306 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-202015-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
306 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 AM CDT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning, some of which may be
severe, with hail being the main threat this morning.

Late this morning and afternoon severe weather will become more
widespread and potentially higher end with damaging winds, large
hail, flooding, and tornadoes all possible. These threats could
go into at least parts of the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night through the
weekend. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely on Monday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
821 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 AM     HAIL             7 WSW LIPSCOMB          36.21N 100.39W
05/20/2019  M1.00 INCH       LIPSCOMB           TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900673

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     HAIL             2 ESE AMARILLO          35.19N 101.79W
05/20/2019  M1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900674

HOFFEDITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
850 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HAIL             LIPSCOMB                36.23N 100.27W
05/20/2019  M1.75 INCH       LIPSCOMB           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900676

HOFFEDITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
920 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 AM     HAIL             3 WNW TIMBERCREEK CANYO 35.07N 101.87W
05/20/2019  M1.27 INCH       RANDALL            TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            UNIVERSITY RESEARCHES REPORTING 1.27 INCH HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900677

HOFFEDITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 AM     FLOOD            BORGER                  35.66N 101.40W
05/20/2019                   HUTCHINSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING CAUSING TRAFFIC DELAYS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900678

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
926 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     FLOOD            FRITCH                  35.64N 101.60W
05/20/2019                   HUTCHINSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING CAUSING TRAFFIC DELAYS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900679

LE