Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
455 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to move
eastward across the region into this evening. After a break in
the active weather overnight, scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night,
mainly for areas south of Albany as a cold front slowly crosses
the area. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions are expected
for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues for much of eastern New
York and western New England, except for the Adirondacks, and
Lake George region through 900 PM.

As of 445 PM EDT...Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue
to gradually move eastward across the region, associated with an
upper level short wave and pre-frontal surface trough. Multiple
bands of thunderstorms are occurring, one just northeast of
Albany another in the mid Hudson Valley near Poughkeepsie, and
another moving through Schoharie county. The storms are
occurring along and south of a significant instability gradient
positioned across the Saratoga region. SBCAPE is in the
2000-2500 J/Kg range south of this boundary, with 0-6 km shear
in the 30-35 kt range from the SPC mesoanalysis. We have seen
classic bow echo and mini-supercell features, along with
multicell clusters today. The severe threat will continue into
this evening, mainly across the SE half of the area.

Instability should start to wane shortly after sunset, and
forcing will also decrease as the short wave moves eastward into
New England. So we are expecting thunderstorms to end from NW
To SE by around 8-9 PM.

The main cold front will still be to the north and west of the
region overnight, so the air mass will remain relatively warm
and humid. Low temps will mainly be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will start out dry, although the main cold front will
still have to push through the eastern 2/3 of the area.
Mid/upper level winds will be generally parallel to the
boundary, so it will take until evening to push through the SE
part of the area. Models including the HREF indicating potential
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, as SBCAPE
values of around 500-800 J/Kg along with 0-6 km shear of 40+ kt.
If updrafts can grow tall enough, there would be a threat for
gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas south
and east of Albany in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. High
temps will range from cooler 70s north and west of the Hudson
Valley, to 80s from the Hudson Valley into NW CT.

A weak wave of low pressure may develop along the cold front as
it passes south and east of our region Thursday night. Some
showers may spread northward into SE portions of our area. Will
mention chance pops for this area, although these may need to be
raised with subsequent forecasts if trends continue.

Unsettled weather should finally end on Friday, as an upper
level trough settles in, with northerly surface winds pushing
any remaining surface boundaries well south of our region.
Humidity levels will be noticeably lower, with dewpoints
dropping through the 50s. Temperatures will be seasonable for
late August, with upper 60s in the higher terrain and upper 70s
in the Hudson Valley. Dry and cool conditions will continue
through Friday night, with a northerly flow persisting.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Saturday, a positively tilted long wave trough will be over
the northeast U.S. As the trough tries to cross the area
Saturday night into Sunday, deterministic model guidance
suggests that the trough closes off over New York. Only the
21/12Z GEFS does not close off the low. This closed low then
wobbles around New York, New Jersey and New England into Monday
before lifting northeast into northern New England later Monday.

Fair weather is expected on Saturday, but by Sunday and Monday,
the Cyclonic flow aloft coupled with a cold pool of -10 to -15C
and afternoon heating, will likely result in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon
and evening.

For Monday night and Tuesday morning, upper level ridging
should build back in resulting in fair weather. However,
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible later Tuesday
as a warm front approaches.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday should be slightly below
normal as 850mb temperatures remain in the single digits through
the period. Lows during this period mainly in the 50s with 40s
in the normally cold spots. Highs mainly in the 70s with 60s
across the higher elevations. Tuesday will be warmer with lows
in the 50s to around 60 and highs mainly in the 70s to near 80.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds are breaking for sun early this afternoon for POU and ALB
and these breaks are spreading eastward towards PSF. This will
result in VFR conditions. GFL remains north of the warm front
which should keep MVFR and IFR conditions in place through the
afternoon. A line of strong thunderstorms is moving down the
Mohawk Valley with some storms along this line already severe.
Damaging winds are the main concern these storms but even an
isolated tornado. The main time window for thunderstorms looks
to be 20z/21-00z/22 at GFL and ALB and then 21z/21-02z/22 for
POU and PSF.

During thunderstorms, brief periods of IFR vsby and MVFR ceilings
are possible but outside of thunderstorms expect mainly VFR
conditions with stratocumulus based around 3.5-5kft AGL. In
addition, winds may shift westerly with strong wind gusts in excess
of 30kt.

After 00Z/22 - 02z/22, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in
intensity and coverage. Since winds will remain under 5KTs and
southerly overnight, some mist and MVFR ceilings or brief IFR
ceilings (especially 06z/22 to 12z/22) may develop, especially at
KGFL/KPSF. Visibility restrictions after 06Z are also possible at
all TAF with the typically foggier spots at KPSF/KGFL seeing IFR
vsby. Did not include reduced visibility during this update but
future updates may adjust.

After sunrise, IFR/MVFR ceilings and/or visibility should return to
VFR as winds shift westerly generally after 13z-15z with the frontal
passage. Winds will also increase to 5-10kts with stronger gusts
possible during peak heating. Future TAF updates will include the
breezy winds.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to move
eastward across the region into this evening. After a break in
the active weather overnight, scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night,
mainly for areas south of Albany as a cold front slowly crosses
the area. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions are expected
for Friday into Saturday.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to around 100
percent tonight. RH values will decrease to minimum values of
around 45 to 55 percent on Thursday, and increase to around 85
to 100 percent Thursday night.

Winds tonight will be south-southwest around 5 mph, shifting to the
west around 5 to 10 mph on Thursday. Winds Thursday night will be
northwest around 5 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to gradually
move eastward across much of the region into this evening.
Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, as a humid
air mass is in place. Though individual storms may be fast
moving, there is potential for repeated rounds of storms which
will lead to the threat of urban/poor drainage flooding and
possible isolated flash flooding. Localized rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches will occur in some areas.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Thursday into Thursday night, mainly for areas south of Albany.
Most of this activity will be light, but brief downpours will be
possible in any thunderstorms.

Dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
514 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-VTZ014-015-221100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
514 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the eastern Catskills, mid
Hudson Valley and Taconics of northwestern Connecticut, western
Massachusetts, and Windham county of southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon into the evening. There is Marginal Risk a few of the
storms may become severe with damaging winds the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed through 900 PM today. Please send
reports of wind damage and or large hail to the National Weather
Service at Albany.

NYZ039>041-043-047>054-082-084-VTZ013-221100-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Northern Fulton-Southern Washington-Bennington-
514 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central and eastern Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie Valley, Capital District, Saratoga region and
Washington county of eastern New York, and Bennington county of
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated non severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon
into early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed through 900 PM today. Please send
reports of wind damage and or large hail to the National Weather
Service at Albany.

NYZ032-033-038-042-083-221100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Northern Warren-
Southeast Warren-
514 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Herkimer, Hamilton and Warren
counties of east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
602 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLOOD            2 SW LOUDONVILLE        42.69N  73.80W
08/21/2019                   ALBANY             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ALL LANES ON CENTRAL AVENUE CLOSED NEAR VATRANO ROAD
            DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1902844

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE BEACON             41.53N  73.94W
08/21/2019  M50 MPH          DUTCHESS           NY   NYS MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1902845

JPV