Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
224 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks
northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly
becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the
area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into
Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper
level disturbance passes nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 has been issued for much of
eastern New York and western New England, except for the
Adirondacks, and Lake George region through 900 PM.

As of 129 PM...We are watching two areas of showers and storms
early this afternoon...one across southern Litchfield and
another across the western Mohawk Valley. The storm in
Litchfield should exit in the next hour, while the storms in the
Mohawk Valley are expected to track east and intensify as they
move into a favorable environment with 1000-1500 J/Kg SBCAPE and
30-40 kt of effective wind shear from SPC mesoanalysis. CAMs
have been inconsistent with forecasting placement/timing of
convection this afternoon. The activity moving through the
Mohawk Valley is associated with a short wave approaching from
the west. Convective mode is expected to be mainly multicells
with lines and also some supercell structures given the shear
magnitude.

The Main threats will be damaging winds, however large hail
will also be possible with the tallest cores due to the fairly
strong deep layer shear. Severe threat looks to be lower across
the Adirondacks and Lake George areas, where extensive cloud
cover remains in place, thus limiting instability.

In addition, 12Z HREF indicating low level helicity (both 0-1
km and 0-3 km) increasing to over 100 m2/s2 from around the
Hudson River Valley and points east into early this evening.
So, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat today, as there is some
potential for training/backbuilding of cells, despite relatively
quick forward movement. Isolated flash flooding may occur if
cells train and repeated thunderstorms occur in any location.
Otherwise, even non-training cells will easily have the
potential to cause ponding of water in poor drainage, urban and
low lying areas.

It appears the best potential for severe thunderstorms time-wise
may be roughly between 2 PM and 8 PM.

Highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s most areas, although
some mid/upper 80s could occur if some sun breaks through at
times within the mid Hudson Valley and lower elevations in NW
CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, there still could be isolated to scattered
thunderstorms through midnight, as mid level heights continue
lowering with the approach of the main trough and surface cold
front from the west. Convective chances should decrease after
midnight, with patchy/areas of fog possibly developing. Lows
mainly in the 60s.

Thursday, the surface cold front will slowly cross the region
from NW to SE, with the approach of a positively tilted trough
from the Great Lakes. Isolated showers will remain possible
until the front passes, and can not rule out some non-severe
thunderstorms across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT
during the early-mid afternoon hours as HREF mean MU CAPES reach
500-1000 J/kg. Highs should reach the lower/mid 80s in valley
areas, and 70s most higher terrain areas. Some upper 80s may
occur across portions of the mid Hudson Valley where downsloping
NW winds will be possible.

Thursday night, the 00Z/21 NAM and ECMWF suggest a wave of low
pressure potentially ripples along the frontal boundary to our
south. This may allow showers to redevelop and expand as far
north as the I-90 corridor. Have indicated slight chance to low
chance PoPs to account for this possibility. Lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Friday-Friday night, cooler and less humid conditions are
expected. Still can not rule out an isolated shower Friday with
the passage of the main upper level trough/cold pool, with
chances mainly across northern areas. Highs Friday mainly in the
70s in valleys, with some 60s across higher terrain areas. Lows
Friday night in the 50s, with 40s possible across northern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Despite some differences in the modeled flow pattern between the
ECMWF and NCEP camps, fairly good agreement that the long term
period will have very low probability of hazardous weather. The
airmass will likely be fairly dry with model consensus of PWATs less
than 0.75 inches for the most part except perhaps for Tuesday. The
main difference within the medium range guidance is that the last
two runs of the ECMWF show a deeper and westward-shifted trough
compared with the GFS/GEFS mean. The ECMWF suggests this low cuts
off and hovers over the region for Sunday/Monday, while the GFS/GEFS
mean shunt the trough eastward and do not develop a cutoff, allowing
the upstream ridge to build overhead. The difference in the sensible
weather with a cutoff would likely be more cloud cover and perhaps
some diurnal showers. At this time, will lean toward the NCEP
solution noting the absence of GEFS members showing a cutoff. The
upshot is a dry forecast for Saturday through Monday with
comfortable humidity levels and temperatures near to slightly below
normal. Will introduce chance PoPs for Tuesday as the GFS and some
GEFS members indicate the ridge shifting east with ascent and
moisture return ahead of an advancing trough.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds are breaking for sun early this afternoon for POU and ALB
and these breaks are spreading eastward towards PSF. This will
result in VFR conditions. GFL remains north of the warm front
which should keep MVFR and IFR conditions in place through the
afternoon. A line of strong thunderstorms is moving down the
Mohawk Valley with some storms along this line already severe.
Damaging winds are the main concern these storms but even an
isolated tornado. The main time window for thunderstorms looks
to be 20z/21-00z/22 at GFL and ALB and then 21z/21-02z/22 for
POU and PSF.

During thunderstorms, brief periods of IFR vsby and MVFR ceilings
are possible but outside of thunderstorms expect mainly VFR
conditions with stratocumulus based around 3.5-5kft AGL. In
addition, winds may shift westerly with strong wind gusts in excess
of 30kt.

After 00Z/22 - 02z/22, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in
intensity and coverage. Since winds will remain under 5KTs and
southerly overnight, some mist and MVFR ceilings or brief IFR
ceilings (especially 06z/22 to 12z/22) may develop, especially at
KGFL/KPSF. Visibility restrictions after 06Z are also possible at
all TAF with the typically foggier spots at KPSF/KGFL seeing IFR
vsby. Did not include reduced visibility during this update but
future updates may adjust.

After sunrise, IFR/MVFR ceilings and/or visibility should return to
VFR as winds shift westerly generally after 13z-15z with the frontal
passage. Winds will also increase to 5-10kts with stronger gusts
possible during peak heating. Future TAF updates will include the
breezy winds.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks
northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly
becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the
area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into
Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper
level disturbance passes nearby.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An anomalously moist airmass will spread back into the region
today with PWAT values increasing to 1.50-2.00 inches. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the moist
airmass, and any storm will be capable of heavy rainfall.
Though individual storms may be fast moving, there is potential
for repeated rounds of storms which will lead to the threat of
urban/poor drainage flooding and possible isolated flash
flooding.

Isolated showers are possible Thursday, with showers possible
across southern areas Thursday night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...MSE/KL/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...MSE/KL/Thompson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
216 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082-084-
VTZ013>015-221100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
216 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central and eastern Mohawk
Valley, Saratoga region, Capital District, Schoharie Valley, eastern
Catskills, Helderbergs, mid Hudson Valley and Taconics of eastern New
York, northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the mid
Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed through 900 PM today. Please send
reports of wind damage and or large hail to the National Weather
Service at Albany.

NYZ032-033-038-042-083-221100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Northern Warren-
Southeast Warren-
216 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Herkimer, Hamilton and Warren
Counties of eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered non severe thunderstorms are possible through early this
evening. Some of the storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             ROUND LAKE              42.94N  73.80W
08/21/2019  M1.00 INCH       SARATOGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1902819

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

NYZ049-050-052>054-212100-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Schenectady-Eastern
Rensselaer-Southern Saratoga-
424 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL SCHENECTADY...
NORTHEASTERN ALBANY...SOUTH CENTRAL SARATOGA AND CENTRAL RENSSELAER
COUNTIES...

At 423 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Latham, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Clifton Park, Cohoes, Watervliet, Rensselaer, Colonie, Latham,
Menands, Green Island, Grafton, Waterford, Loudonville, West Sand
Lake, Center Brunswick, Wyantskill, Averill Park, Wynantskill,
Halfmoon, North Greenbush and Brunswick.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 7 and 5A.
 Interstate 87 between exits 2 and 7, and between exits 8A and 9.
 Interstate 787 between exits 5 and 9.

LAT...LON 4274 7392 4290 7381 4281 7334 4257 7350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 296DEG 16KT 4280 7378

Wasula