Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
638 AM AKST Sat Jan 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Blizzard conditions on the Northwest Arctic Coast and
strong winds and blowing snow on the remainder of the Coast.
Another low will move north through the Bering Strait bringing
some rain, more snow, and a whole bunch of wind. That wind may
push some water up on top of the ice along the coast from Golovin
to Teller tonight. Some clearing in the Interior east of Ruby
today. Snow to the west and north and several Advisories have been
issued or continue. Expect some gusty south winds in the Brooks
Range tonight to 35 mph.

Models...26/00Z solutions continue the better agreement that we
saw yesterday aloft and at the surface with less divergence. Very
little difference in the surface solutions when initialized
against the 26/12Z surface analysis. Change in flow aloft to more
southwest it should start later this morning with cooling
continuing through Saturday. Our choice of solutions worked well
yesterday, so going to stay the course and use the same solutions
again today which will be a NAMDNG/SREF blend for precipitation,
and mainly NAMDNG for winds.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A shortwave is moving east across the state
this morning and lies from Ambler to Healy to Whittier this
morning and will be over the AlCan by noon. Ridging building back
north over the area will be over the southwest mainland this
morning, and pushes north to the Arctic Coast this evening with
530 dam heights pushing over the Brooks Range. A shortwave over
the Seward Peninsula this morning will move northwest over the
Chukchi Sea as a low over the Western Aleutians moves over St
Lawrence Island by late this evening at 508 dam, and will continue
north over the Chukchi Sea as it weakens and merges back to the
west into a low over Siberia. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm is
north of most of the Arctic Coast and will remain there.

Surface...Troughing over the northern half of the state this
morning extends from Old Crow YT to the Bering Strait, then
southwest to a 970 mb low near Adak. High pressure is building
north over the Southcentral area. High pressure over the Arctic
north of 75N continues as the high moves east. By Sunday morning
the Arctic high will be over the Beaufort Sea 300 nm north of
Demarcation Point with ridging extending south over the Yukon
Territory to a 1037 mb high in the southern Yukon Territory. The
low over Adak will move to St Matthew Island at 980 mb as a low
that was over the Bering Strait moves northwest across the Chukchi
Sea. By Monday morning high pressure over the Yukon Territory will
be pushing west over the Eastern Interior with a 1030 mb high in
the Upper Yukon Flats. The low to the west will move to the
Southwest Arctic at 1000 mb. A tight pressure gradient will
develop across the Brooks Range tonight and Sunday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blizzard Warning continues on the
Northwest Coast, and they continue to pick up over the remainder
of the coast with blowing snow and snow reducing visibility.
Expect gusts to 40 mph and visibility near zero at times.
Temperatures not changing significantly through the weekend. Gusty
south winds in the Brooks Range tonight will produce blowing and
drifting snow that may impact travel.

West Coast and Western Interior...Another busy day out west with
several Winter Weather Advisories remaining in effect. Heavy snows
continue in the Upper Kobuk and Noatak today and tonight. Still
expect some minor accumulations of freezing rain in the Lower
Yukon Delta, but the atmosphere is cooling, so that will be ending
as we move into the afternoon. Winds picking up from the south
tonight as the low moves to the Bering Strait. This may push some
water up on top of the shorefast ice along the coast from Golovin
to Teller. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs
pushing into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Decreasing clouds and snow along
the Brooks Range will be tapering off through the day.
Temperatures will be cooling. Tanana Valley Jet winds will be
kicking up around Delta Junction overnight with gusts to around 35
mph.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Will remain warm through
Tuesday then a cooling trend as a pool of cold air sinks southwest
over the interior. Strong inversions developing with the deep cold
air, and good radiational cooling with mostly clear skies that
will allow for max cooling at the surface beyond Thursday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ212-AKZ214-
AKZ215-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 19