Wind Advisory 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

878 
WWAK73 PAFG 280546
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
846 PM AKST Sun Jan 27 2019

AKZ225-226-280700-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190128T0600Z/
Denali-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, Kantishna, 
Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, 
Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
846 PM AKST Sun Jan 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKST Sun Jan 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...Conditions improving in the Arctic today, but it will
get a little worse before it gets better. The West Coast continues
to be very busy, but will see improvement as the day goes on. The
interior will be pretty quiet with some breaks in the clouds.
Strong gusty winds on the West Coast will diminish later today as
the low moves to the Bering Strait and weakens. Expect winds
near passes in the ranges to pick up from the south with gusts
around 40 mph in the Brooks Range and 45 mph in the Alaska Range.
Windy around Delta Junction as well with gusts around 35 mph.

Models...27/00Z solutions continue to be in good agreement aloft
and at the surface into the midrange before differences show up in
the handling of the low developing over the Arctic and dropping
down over the Yukon Territory late in the week. Solutions
initialized well against the 27/12Z surface analysis. Will
continue on the same course as we have the last few days, using
the NAMDNG/SREF blend for precipitation, and mainly NAMDNG for
winds.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging has pushed well north over the Arctic
with the axis lying from Yakutat to Nuiqsut then northwest over
the Arctic this morning. Longwave trough to the west is over the
Central Bering Sea and Gulf of Anadyr, then west over Yakutia. A
487 dam low is over the Sea of Ohkotsk, while a 488 dam low is
over Victoria Island. Several shortwaves will move north along the
western flank of the ridge over the West Coast and Western
Interior today, but they are very hard to discern in the flow. By
Monday morning the ridging will slide to the east with the axis
lying from the Queen Charlotte Island over the Yukon Territory and
north over 135W before turning west over 80N. Troughing to the
west will be split by a developing 539 dam high that will move
over St Matthew Island while a 533 dam low will develop over
Bristol Bay. Troughing to the north will move north over the
Western Arctic, then move east as a 503 dam low over Yakutia moves
to the Siberian Coast 400 nm west of Wrangel Island with the
shortwave arching into the Western Arctic and over the northwest
mainland by Monday evening extending south to the low over Bristol
Bay. The trough will move east across the state and by Tuesday
morning it will lie from Deadhorse to Livengood to Dillingham as
it moves east and southeast. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm is
north of most of the Arctic Coast and will remain there through
Monday, then pushes south to the Brooks Range with a pool of
colder air moving over the Arctic Coast as colder air will
continue to push south through the week.

Surface...High pressure is pushing west over the Interior this
morning as the low pressure moves north in the Eastern Bering Sea
and Chukchi Sea. High pressure over the Arctic has moved east with
a 1038 mb high 300 nm north of Demarcation Point, a 1036 mb high
in the Northwest Territories, and a 1038 mb high in the Southern
Yukon Territory. A 993 mb low in the Western Chukchi Sea will
continue to move northwest while a 988 mb low near the Gulf of
Anadyr will merge with a 987 mb low near the Pribilofs as the low
moves to St Lawrence Island this afternoon and into the Chukchi
Sea this evening at 1005 mb before merging with 999 mb low near
Wrangel Island. Tight pressure gradient around the low is
producing some strong gusty east to southeast winds along the
coast and in some inland locations this morning and that will
continue into the afternoon. Leeside troughing north of the
ranges has developed and relatively tight pressure gradients
across the ranges will bring some gusty south winds to the north
slopes of the ranges. By Monday afternoon the low near Wrangel
Island will be 300 nm north of the Island with a front extending
southeast to Nuiqsut, then southwest to Galena and Cold Bay. The
front will slowly drag across the state on Tuesday spreading snow
to most of the state. High pressure develops over the Bering Sea
Monday and moves to the Chukchi Sea on Tuesday pushing east over
the Arctic Plain with a 1027 mb high developing over the Eastern
Brooks Range on Wednesday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Lots of blowing snow, snow, low
visibility, strong gusty winds to start the day, but conditions
will be improving through the day. The exception will be near the
Brooks Range Passes where winds will pick up and Blowing and
Drifting snow may impact travel. Winds gusting to 40 mph this
morning. Temperatures a bit warmer, but will be cooling back down
starting Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Busy weather day again with a
mix of precipitation expected. Will be mainly snow, but chance of
Freezing Rain continues as the low drags some warmer air north.
Heavy snow continues in the Upper Noatak and Kobuk areas but will
be tapering off later today and overnight. Strong winds producing
blowing and drifting snow from the Seward Peninsula north today.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs around 40
in a few locations south of the Seward Peninsula.

Central and Eastern Interior...Quiet compared to the remainder of
the state. Some clearing later in the day. Next front will move to
the Interior Monday night and Tuesday bringing 2 to 4 inches of
snow to the Middle Tanana Valley, and 3 to 6 inches to the
remainder of the Interior. Tanana Valley Jet will kick in with
southeast winds gusting to around 35 mph in Delta Junction. Some
gusty gap winds as well near the Alaska Range Passed with gusts to
45 mph. Winds in the remainder of the area will generally be less
than 10 mph. Temperatures will slowly cool through Tuesday, then
cool significantly Thursday with what looks like a pretty cold
weekend to start February.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Clearing starting Wednesday
with a pool of cold Arctic air sinking southwest over the eastern
half of the state. Strong inversions developing with the deep
cold air, and good radiational cooling with mostly clear skies
that will allow for max cooling at the surface starting Thursday.
A low will move into the Bering Sea Saturday spreading a mix of
precipitation up the West Coast on Sunday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ210-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 19