Storm Warning 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

453 
FZAK62 PAFC 110109
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111345-
409 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb Kamchatka low at 50N 170E will move to 61N 178W at 962 
mb Mon morning. The associated front over the Bering will weaken
Tue morning and dissipate Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
409 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 20 to 35 ft after midnight.
Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 23 to 38 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
409 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft 
building to 35 to 46 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 27 to 40 ft subsiding to 19 to 29 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
409 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt increasing to 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 19 ft building to 18 to 33 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 to 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Winds diminishing to
35 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 to 43 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
409 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32
ft
in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

395 
FZAK62 PAFC 111228
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120230-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 mb low at 56N 175E this morning, will weaken to 977 mb as 
it races northeast to a position at 67N 166W by Tuesday morning. 
The associated surface front will sweep from the central Bering 
to the western coast of Alaska through mid afternoon today.

A 1015 mb low will lift from the north Pacific to 53N 166W by 
Tuesday evening, then rapidly deepen to 996 mb at 56N 156W by 
Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ411-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 28 to 43 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas building to 31 to 46 ft. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 27 to 40 ft subsiding to 19 to 29 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 27 to 42 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 21 to 33 ft subsiding to 17 to 23 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon...strongest winds from the Pribilof Islands N. Seas 15 to 
21 ft building to 17 to 31 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 33 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

625 
FZAK62 PAFC 120042
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121415-
342 PM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front over the Bering, associated with a 967 mb low in 
the northern Bering, will dissipate Tue morning. A 1020 mb North
Pacific low will move to 50N 170W Tue morning then it will move to
the southwestern Gulf Wed morning. A front associated with a 963
mb Kamchatka low will move over the western Aleutians Wed. 

$$

PKZ411-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 PM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 PM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 27 to 40 ft subsiding to 19 to 28 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 PM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 33 ft subsiding to 16 to 22 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 PM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW up to 15 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

445 
FZAK62 PAFC 121216
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
316 AM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130215-
316 AM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1023 mb low at 46N 176W will move to 54N 153W and strengthen to
1008 mb Wed morning, before moving off to the east Wed evening. A
Pacific low will move to 48N 174E at 994 mb Wed morning then move
to 54N 169E at 962 mb Thu morning. The associated front reaches 
the western Bering and Aleutians Wed evening, reaching central 
portions of the area Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-130215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
316 AM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
316 AM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
316 AM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 10 to 18
ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
316 AM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 11
to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The amplified upper level ridge that had been sitting over the
Gulf and Southcentral is starting to move slowly eastward as a
trough, associated with a vertically stacked low in the Bering, is
moving eastward. Its frontal boundary stretches from the northern
Bering down across the Pribilofs to south of the central
Aleutians. Gusty winds and primarily rain have been associated
with this front as it progresses eastward towards the southwest
coast and AKPEN throughout the day. Meanwhile, the the AKPEN to
Southcentral continue to sit of the western side of the ridge.
These areas are seeing cloudy conditions, with a few rain showers,
across the region as moisture is being pulled in from the North
Pacific.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest item to note for the models in the short term is how
the models are in their second cycle of all of them moving the
low in the Gulf on a farther south trajectory on Sunday. This is
lowering the chances of precipitation around Southcentral Alaska
with the new track.

Models are in good agreement with the synoptic placement and
intensity with the low moving across the Bering through Mon
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The possibility of stratus and/or fog continues to be the
concern around PANC. Due to the higher clouds overhead and the
stratus that developed during the morning, it looks more likely
for stratus to be the prevalent condition with fog being less
likely. MVFR ceilings are likely through the night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging that has been over the area will start to push off to the
east tonight ahead of a shortwave moving in from the west. This
shortwave will meet with another shortwave approaching from the
south and spin up a low in the Gulf Sunday morning. This new low
will bring precipitation to Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, with other locations only seeing occasional light
showers. The majority of the precipitation will be rain with
higher elevations and interior locations seeing snow. The low
will then quickly move off to the southeast with more ridging
building in over Southcentral Alaska on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Saturday
night through Tuesday)...

Two lows will impact the southwest coast over the next three
days. The first low is currently moving through the Aleutian
Islands and will impact the southwest coast tonight into
tomorrow. This low is the weaker of the two lows. It is
anticipated to bring rain and/or snow depending on temperatures at
your specific location in southwest Alaska, so be sure to check
out your local forecast. Also expected are gale force winds,
mainly in coastal areas around Bristol Bay.

The second low is a much stronger low that will move through the
central Bering. Due to its large size and strength, it will have
multiple impacts on southwest Alaska. The first and likely most
significant impact will be sustained gale force winds along
coastal areas of southwest Alaska. Before winds reach shore, a
front dropping fresh snow will (along with recently fallen snow
from the first low) will leave a loose snow pack to allow for
blowing snow to be an issue with these winds. As of now we are not
expecting visibility to reduce below a half mile due to warm
temperatures and and southerly winds, which have a tendency to not
produce intense blowing snow. However, this bears close watching.

The second issue also pertains to winds, which is coastal flooding.
A southwest south to southwest fetch of strong winds has the
potential to create a coastal flood issue for the Kuskokwim and
Delta and Bristol Bay. However, taking a look at today the current
thinking (after discussing with the ice forecaster) is that
shorefast ice will hold and protect the coast. This will mitigate
impacts in the Kuskokwim Delta, which will be the most exposed in
this wind direction. The Bristol Bay area will not see enough of
a fetch for long enough to be an issue. Therefore, not expecting
coastal flooding at this time. We will take another look though.

Lastly, freezing rain could be present as this system will be
sending warm air into southwest Alaska. Looking at forecast
soundings and temperatures today, it does not favor freezing rain.
Therefore, backed off on the freezing rain forecast to a chance
but did not discount it completely based on one model run.

All in all, a busy few days of forecasting for southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Saturday night through)...

The first of two low pressure systems for the Being Sea is
currently pushing through the central and eastern Aleutians. It is
still forecast to bring gale force winds the Aleutians and Eastern
Bering as it moves east tonight into tomorrow.

The more significant low is still anticipated to enter the
western Aleutians tomorrow night. Forecasts are still going for
this to be a deep and strong low, with a tight pressure gradient.
Therefore, were are still expecting storm force sustained winds
with hurricane force gusts for the western Aleutians and Bering
tomorrow night into Monday. Seas will be correspondingly high with
this low...with wave heights over 40 feet.

The low holds together well as it tracks northeast through the
Bering Monday into Tuesday, maintaining storm force strength over
the central Bering while sending strong gales into the Pribilofs.
The storm will largely exit our forecast area midday Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

There are a few systems to watch across the marine areas that have
the potential to produce areas of gales and storms through this
time frame. Starting Tuesday, we'll be monitoring a low departing
through the Bering Strait Monday night that is forecast to
produce storm force westerly winds Monday night, diminishing to
gales across the northern Bering by Tuesday morning. Depending on
the amount of sea ice near the coast, erosion may be a concern.
Confidence is moderate to high with this as model consistency has
been good.

Gale-force westerly gap winds through the Barren Islands out into
the central Gulf are expected starting late Monday night and
persisting almost nonstop through Tuesday. Any diminishing in
those winds will be brief as a strong low moves across the far
southern Gulf on Wednesday. This will turn the winds out of the
northwest as they intensify back to gales over much of the open
waters of the Gulf into Thursday. Confidence continues to improve
for this scenario as well. There is some potential for storms,
particularly in the windier gaps, especially on the north side of
Afognak Island and the south side of Kodiak Island. The winds will
diminish over the Gulf during the day Thursday.

A strong front will move into the far western Aleutians Tuesday
night, but will weaken as it crosses the Bering and reaches the
coast around Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta around
Thursday morning. Timing with this feature is also well agreed
upon in the long-range models. It's becoming increasingly likely
that storm force southeasterly winds associated with the front
will impact the western Aleutians Tuesday night into Wednesday,
then weaken to gale force when it reaches the Pribilofs and the
Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday night. Southwesterly gales behind
the front are also expected for the Western Aleutians Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the parent low tracks well north and west
along the Kamchatka Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long-term forecast pattern, generally well agreed upon in the
models will feature a weakening front moving over southern
mainland Alaska Tuesday and Tuesday night causing mostly mountain
snow showers with no one particular area expected to see much in
the way of precipitation activity. Behind that, a seasonably cold
air mass will move into Southwest Alaska early on Tuesday and
spread across Southcentral by Tuesday night. This cold, dry air
will increase the strong westerly gap winds through the Barren
Islands, Passage Canal, and northerly offshore winds through the
Copper River Delta, Resurrection Bay and possibly Valdez marine
areas. Other than those windy conditions, a period of calm, quiet
weather is expected and the air mass should be dry enough that
areas of fog should be few and far between. A dying front will
approach the coast of Southwest Alaska Thursday evening, but
should dissipate entirely before making any more progress inland
than that. The cold air mass across inland areas of Alaska appears
likely to persist through Saturday, which will also keep the gap
winds going much of that time, especially in those areas with
openings to the Copper River Basin.

Elsewhere, the storm track for much of the long-term will remain
across the western and northern Bering, as strong lows move across
or near the Western Aleutians about once every 36-48 hours. The
first low moves well west of Shemya Wednesday morning, a second
low moves north over the Central Aleutians Thursday night, and a
third low impacts the western Aleutians Saturday night. Each of
these will have gales and potentially storms with them, along with
heavy rains. By Saturday, the models are having their usual
struggles by day 7, but all suggest another dying front will make
somewhat better progress than its predecessors at spreading
precipitation across Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storms 132 150 175 177 178 352 411 413. Gales 130 131 155
160 165 170-174 176 179-181 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW