Hurricane Force Wind Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

894 
FZAK52 PAFC 110101
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111415-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 959 mb Kamchatka low 230 nm southeast of Shemya will move to 
the northern Bering at 962 mb Mon morning. The associated front 
over the Bering will weaken Tue morning and dissipate Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111415-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt by noon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111415-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111415-
Bristol Bay-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Patchy freezing fog.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111415-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft except 17 ft from Port
Moller
E.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111415-
Unalaska Bay-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt by midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
with snow.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt by midnight. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 27 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft subsiding to 19 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111415-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111415-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111415-
Adak to Kiska-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 65 kt after midnight. Seas 24 ft
building to 42 ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 39 ft
subsiding to 28 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111415-
Kiska to Attu-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 65 kt. From Shemya W, S wind 50 kt becoming W by
midnight. Bering side, seas 30 ft building to 45 ft after midnight. 
Pacific side, seas 41 ft building to 49 ft after midnight. Widespread
rain and snow showers.
.MON...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 38 ft
subsiding to 27 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111415-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt with gusts to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 
ft building to 33 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 34 ft subsiding to 26 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...S wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft building to 18 ft
in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

PKZ185-111415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 10 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Snow.
.MON...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft building to 32 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 33 ft subsiding to 27 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

982 
FZAK52 PAFC 111242
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-120115-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 958 mb low located 250 nm north of Shemya this morning, will 
weaken to 977 mb as it races northeast to a position 75 nm west of
Kotzebue by Tuesday morning. The associated surface front 
will sweep from the central Bering to the western coast of Alaska
through mid afternoon today.

A 1015 mb low will lift from the north Pacific to 70 nm south 
southeast of Unalaska by Tuesday evening, then rapidly deepen to 
996 mb located 155 nm southeast of Chignik by Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ150-120115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-120115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-120115-
Bristol Bay-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-120115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft except 17 ft from Port Moller
E.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-120115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-120115-
Unalaska Bay-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-120115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-120115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 27 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft subsiding to 19 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-120115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-120115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
29 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 16 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-120115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-120115-
Adak to Kiska-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 39 ft
subsiding to 29 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 55 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-120115-
Kiska to Attu-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
38 ft subsiding to 27 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 55 kt. Seas 41 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 41 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-120115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Gusts as high as 65 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 23 ft building to 33 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 33
ft subsiding to 27 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ180-120115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ181-120115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft building to
18 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-120115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 32 ft in the
afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
33 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft
subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The amplified upper level ridge that had been sitting over the
Gulf and Southcentral is starting to move slowly eastward as a
trough, associated with a vertically stacked low in the Bering, is
moving eastward. Its frontal boundary stretches from the northern
Bering down across the Pribilofs to south of the central
Aleutians. Gusty winds and primarily rain have been associated
with this front as it progresses eastward towards the southwest
coast and AKPEN throughout the day. Meanwhile, the the AKPEN to
Southcentral continue to sit of the western side of the ridge.
These areas are seeing cloudy conditions, with a few rain showers,
across the region as moisture is being pulled in from the North
Pacific.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest item to note for the models in the short term is how
the models are in their second cycle of all of them moving the
low in the Gulf on a farther south trajectory on Sunday. This is
lowering the chances of precipitation around Southcentral Alaska
with the new track.

Models are in good agreement with the synoptic placement and
intensity with the low moving across the Bering through Mon
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The possibility of stratus and/or fog continues to be the
concern around PANC. Due to the higher clouds overhead and the
stratus that developed during the morning, it looks more likely
for stratus to be the prevalent condition with fog being less
likely. MVFR ceilings are likely through the night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging that has been over the area will start to push off to the
east tonight ahead of a shortwave moving in from the west. This
shortwave will meet with another shortwave approaching from the
south and spin up a low in the Gulf Sunday morning. This new low
will bring precipitation to Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, with other locations only seeing occasional light
showers. The majority of the precipitation will be rain with
higher elevations and interior locations seeing snow. The low
will then quickly move off to the southeast with more ridging
building in over Southcentral Alaska on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Saturday
night through Tuesday)...

Two lows will impact the southwest coast over the next three
days. The first low is currently moving through the Aleutian
Islands and will impact the southwest coast tonight into
tomorrow. This low is the weaker of the two lows. It is
anticipated to bring rain and/or snow depending on temperatures at
your specific location in southwest Alaska, so be sure to check
out your local forecast. Also expected are gale force winds,
mainly in coastal areas around Bristol Bay.

The second low is a much stronger low that will move through the
central Bering. Due to its large size and strength, it will have
multiple impacts on southwest Alaska. The first and likely most
significant impact will be sustained gale force winds along
coastal areas of southwest Alaska. Before winds reach shore, a
front dropping fresh snow will (along with recently fallen snow
from the first low) will leave a loose snow pack to allow for
blowing snow to be an issue with these winds. As of now we are not
expecting visibility to reduce below a half mile due to warm
temperatures and and southerly winds, which have a tendency to not
produce intense blowing snow. However, this bears close watching.

The second issue also pertains to winds, which is coastal flooding.
A southwest south to southwest fetch of strong winds has the
potential to create a coastal flood issue for the Kuskokwim and
Delta and Bristol Bay. However, taking a look at today the current
thinking (after discussing with the ice forecaster) is that
shorefast ice will hold and protect the coast. This will mitigate
impacts in the Kuskokwim Delta, which will be the most exposed in
this wind direction. The Bristol Bay area will not see enough of
a fetch for long enough to be an issue. Therefore, not expecting
coastal flooding at this time. We will take another look though.

Lastly, freezing rain could be present as this system will be
sending warm air into southwest Alaska. Looking at forecast
soundings and temperatures today, it does not favor freezing rain.
Therefore, backed off on the freezing rain forecast to a chance
but did not discount it completely based on one model run.

All in all, a busy few days of forecasting for southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Saturday night through)...

The first of two low pressure systems for the Being Sea is
currently pushing through the central and eastern Aleutians. It is
still forecast to bring gale force winds the Aleutians and Eastern
Bering as it moves east tonight into tomorrow.

The more significant low is still anticipated to enter the
western Aleutians tomorrow night. Forecasts are still going for
this to be a deep and strong low, with a tight pressure gradient.
Therefore, were are still expecting storm force sustained winds
with hurricane force gusts for the western Aleutians and Bering
tomorrow night into Monday. Seas will be correspondingly high with
this low...with wave heights over 40 feet.

The low holds together well as it tracks northeast through the
Bering Monday into Tuesday, maintaining storm force strength over
the central Bering while sending strong gales into the Pribilofs.
The storm will largely exit our forecast area midday Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

There are a few systems to watch across the marine areas that have
the potential to produce areas of gales and storms through this
time frame. Starting Tuesday, we'll be monitoring a low departing
through the Bering Strait Monday night that is forecast to
produce storm force westerly winds Monday night, diminishing to
gales across the northern Bering by Tuesday morning. Depending on
the amount of sea ice near the coast, erosion may be a concern.
Confidence is moderate to high with this as model consistency has
been good.

Gale-force westerly gap winds through the Barren Islands out into
the central Gulf are expected starting late Monday night and
persisting almost nonstop through Tuesday. Any diminishing in
those winds will be brief as a strong low moves across the far
southern Gulf on Wednesday. This will turn the winds out of the
northwest as they intensify back to gales over much of the open
waters of the Gulf into Thursday. Confidence continues to improve
for this scenario as well. There is some potential for storms,
particularly in the windier gaps, especially on the north side of
Afognak Island and the south side of Kodiak Island. The winds will
diminish over the Gulf during the day Thursday.

A strong front will move into the far western Aleutians Tuesday
night, but will weaken as it crosses the Bering and reaches the
coast around Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta around
Thursday morning. Timing with this feature is also well agreed
upon in the long-range models. It's becoming increasingly likely
that storm force southeasterly winds associated with the front
will impact the western Aleutians Tuesday night into Wednesday,
then weaken to gale force when it reaches the Pribilofs and the
Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday night. Southwesterly gales behind
the front are also expected for the Western Aleutians Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the parent low tracks well north and west
along the Kamchatka Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long-term forecast pattern, generally well agreed upon in the
models will feature a weakening front moving over southern
mainland Alaska Tuesday and Tuesday night causing mostly mountain
snow showers with no one particular area expected to see much in
the way of precipitation activity. Behind that, a seasonably cold
air mass will move into Southwest Alaska early on Tuesday and
spread across Southcentral by Tuesday night. This cold, dry air
will increase the strong westerly gap winds through the Barren
Islands, Passage Canal, and northerly offshore winds through the
Copper River Delta, Resurrection Bay and possibly Valdez marine
areas. Other than those windy conditions, a period of calm, quiet
weather is expected and the air mass should be dry enough that
areas of fog should be few and far between. A dying front will
approach the coast of Southwest Alaska Thursday evening, but
should dissipate entirely before making any more progress inland
than that. The cold air mass across inland areas of Alaska appears
likely to persist through Saturday, which will also keep the gap
winds going much of that time, especially in those areas with
openings to the Copper River Basin.

Elsewhere, the storm track for much of the long-term will remain
across the western and northern Bering, as strong lows move across
or near the Western Aleutians about once every 36-48 hours. The
first low moves well west of Shemya Wednesday morning, a second
low moves north over the Central Aleutians Thursday night, and a
third low impacts the western Aleutians Saturday night. Each of
these will have gales and potentially storms with them, along with
heavy rains. By Saturday, the models are having their usual
struggles by day 7, but all suggest another dying front will make
somewhat better progress than its predecessors at spreading
precipitation across Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storms 132 150 175 177 178 352 411 413. Gales 130 131 155
160 165 170-174 176 179-181 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW