Storm Warning 117, NWS Anchorage, AK

815 
FZAK52 PAFC 011152
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020045-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A frontal boundary associated with a 984 mb Gulf low will impact
Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula through Wed morning before
moving southward. A frontal boundary from a north Pacific low
moves into the central Aleutians Wed afternoon into Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-020045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-020045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-020045-
Bristol Bay-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ165-020045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-020045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-020045-
Unalaska Bay-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-020045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-020045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-020045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-020045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-020045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-020045-
Adak to Kiska-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-020045-
Kiska to Attu-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-020045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-020045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-020045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ185-020045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

930 
FZAK52 PAFC 012351
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021315-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A weak front stretching across the central Bering this afternoon
reaches the coast of southwest Alaska by Wednesday afternoon. Another
front enters the western Bering Thursday afternoon.


$$

PKZ150-021315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 35
kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021315-
Bristol Bay-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt toward morning. Seas 8
ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021315-
Unalaska Bay-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021315-
Adak to Kiska-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021315-
Kiska to Attu-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a front tracking east through the Copper River Basin
following behind ridging to the east that is also pushing to the
east. The front brought heavy rain to areas along the north Gulf
coast and moderate rain to inland locations. The band of heaviest
precipitation is now east of Glennallen. To the west, a trough
extends south through southwest Alaska and through the Alaska
Peninsula. In the base of the trough, south of the Alaska
Peninsula, a low is developing and beginning to move to the
northeast. Farther west, ridging is over the western Bering is
also moving to the east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement with the main synoptic features
into the mid term, but start to struggle with a low in the Gulf
Tuesday. There are minor differences in the strength and position
of the low resulting in differences with how strong the winds will
be. The EC and NAM have been in good agreement and were preferred.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds will persist into the afternoon and then shift
to the north and increase to around 10 kt. Ceilings will remain
low through the early part of the day, but will gradually improve
into the evening. There is some uncertainty with the timing of VFR
conditions returning to the airport.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...
Monday will bring a short reprieve from the wet weather before
another strong low moves in on Tue. Rainfall amounts from Sun
ranged from about 0.50" around the Anchorage Bowl to closer to
1.0" closer to the coast. The front has just about cleared the
ALCAN border this morning and just a weak surface low remains over
the Northern Gulf of AK. This surface low will be the key to the
forecast for the next 48hrs. First, it is helping to produce a
weak offshore gradient at the surface. For now, this is keeping
just enough dry air flowing across the surface to keep widespread
fog from forming. However, localized areas will still see fog this
morning and it could become more widespread, especially as the
sun rises and helps to mix out some of the moisture from Sunday's
rain.

By tonight, a strong upper level shortwave will move towards the
Western Gulf and give plenty of support to this surface low. The
shortwave is currently tracking along the Aleutians just south of
Dutch Harbor. This system will cause the weak low to slide towards
Kodiak Island and rapidly deepen through Tue morning. This will
bring yet another round of widespread moderate rain to nearly all
of Southcentral. This rain will carry from southeast to northwest
across the area associated with a weak warm front. The best
chance for rain around the Anchorage area will be early Tue
morning (daybreak) through the midday. The most substantial impact
from this system will be the winds over the marine areas. As the
low deepens and pivots just east of Kodiak Island, it will be able
to tap into some colder air from SW AK. This is a fairly classic
set up to bring some very gusty N-NW winds through Shelikof
Strait, the Cook Inlet, the Barren Islands, and much of Kodiak
Island. We have issued a storm warning for marine areas just east
of Kodiak. There is still some uncertainty with the exact strength
and track of the low center, so winds and waves may need to be
increased with future packages.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level troughing along the Kuskokwim Delta coast will
continue to bring scattered showers onshore today. As the flow
across Southwest Alaska turns northwesterly in response to ridging
building in along the coast, the north side of the Alaska
Peninsula will become more favored for upslope showers.
Northwesterly winds will increase rapidly tonight through Tuesday
morning both through the typical gaps and passes in the Alaska
Peninsula and also across Southwest Alaska as a strong surface low
in the western Gulf rapidly intensifies. The northwest winds will
start diminishing Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A
shortwave trough will move onshore over the Kuskokwim Delta
Tuesday evening followed close behind by a second one Wednesday
morning and a broader upper trough Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level ridging in the western Bering will shift east and into
the central Bering today and then over the eastern Bering
tonight. Northwesterly winds will increase over the eastern Bering
and across the Alaska Peninsula tonight through Tuesday morning in
response to the tightening of the surface pressure gradient
between the ridge and a low deepening rapidly in the western Gulf.
Following the ridge, a shortwave trough and accompanying surface
ridge will move from the western Aleutians and Bering this
afternoon and evening to eastern Bering by Tuesday. The next
shortwave will swing across the northern and central Bering
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night followed by another one
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE (Tue afternoon Thu night)...
The strong low pressure system in the Gulf will keep gale-force
winds along the back side of the low, mainly in the southern and
western Gulf. There could be some storm force gusts, especially
out of bays and passes on Tuesday afternoon, but sustained winds
should be max-gales. Those winds will taper off quickly Wednesday
night into Thursday as the system weakens toward the Panhandle.
The Bering Sea will see a period of relatively benign conditions
through mid-week as broad westerly flow sets up, but not very
strong. However, the fetch and time of westerly winds could stack
some larger waves/swell than the weaker winds would suggest. The
next significant system enters the Bering on Thursday with a gale-
force front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Tue afternoon Sat night)...
The extended forecast begins with a Gulf of Alaska low near peak
intensity. However, that system quickly weakens while the pattern
shifts a little bit to a zonal jet stream with several strong
disturbances. The first disturbance spins up a very progressive
low that tracks into the Bering Strait region. The wind direction
and wind duration hint at some possible surge/coastal erosion
issues, but the worst should be north of the Kuskokwim Delta
area. However, there is some uncertainty associated with the
broader forecast as the remnants of Typhoon Mitag will make an
extratropical transition and phase with the jet over east Asia.
Both long range models (ECMWF and GFS) show a little different
progression of this feature. The ECMWF delay the trough into which
the tropical system phases, and hence not a great phase, which
results in a flat ridge downstream. The GFS looks to fully phase
the feature which really amplifies the downstream north Pacific
ridge. Details should become more clear early to mid week. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...120, 130, 131, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 150,
				 155, 160, 351, 352.
		 Storms...132.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
MARINE/LONG TERM...ML