Small Craft Advisory 721, NWS Anchorage, AK

695 
FZAK52 PAFC 302047 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010315-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A frontal boundary associated with a strengthening Gulf low
develops in the southern Alaska Peninsula Mon evening before
dissipating Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-010315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt except NW 35 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010315-
Bristol Bay-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010315-
Unalaska Bay-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010315-
Adak to Kiska-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010315-
Kiska to Attu-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-010315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
1247 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

088 
FZAK52 PAFC 302337
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-011230-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front pushes across the Bering through Wed afternoon. A 1006 mb
Sea of Okhotsk low moves into Central Kamchatka at 1002 mb as its
front approaches the Western Bering and Aleutians for Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-011230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt toward 
morning. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Isolated
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-011230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30
kt increasing to 40 kt with gusts to 55 kt after midnight. Seas 10 
ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt except NW 40 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Gusts to 55 kt in the morning from the Shumagin Islands E. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-011230-
Bristol Bay-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-011230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-011230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-011230-
Unalaska Bay-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-011230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-011230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-011230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-011230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-011230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-011230-
Adak to Kiska-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-011230-
Kiska to Attu-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-011230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-011230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-011230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the evening
along the coast. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-011230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 PM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
642 PM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is an upper level trough over
the central and eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. There is
an upper level ridge over the Western Bering, and another ridge
over the Panhandle and extreme northwest Canada. There is a long
front stretching from the Susitna valley south through Cook Inlet
across the western Gulf of Alaska. This front has a long moisture
fetch into the tropics near Hawaii. This is bringing a decent
swath of rain to much of Southcentral. There is a surface low
forming along this front just south of the Kenai Peninsula.

MODEL DISCUSSION...
Overall, the numerical models are in good agreement through the
short term portion of the forecast (Tuesday afternoon). There are
some minor disagreements on the location and movement of a surface
low in the Gulf Monday night and Tuesday, but this has minimal
impact on the forecast. Therefore the forecast confidence is
higher than normal.

AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR ceilings are expected through late Monday morning as
considerable moisture remains over the area, then will improve to
VFR by the afternoon. Winds will be fairly light.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Wednesday evening)

Widespread rainfall continues to fall across all of Southcentral,
thanks to a deep tropical feed with Hawaiian origins. This is
being fed north from a deep southerly to southwesterly flow
aloft, anchored by a weak surface low of 1005 mb near the Barren
Islands. This fetch of moisture looks to continue through the
evening. As the low treks ever so slowly to the east through the
night, rainfall will become more showery in nature after midnight.
Then for your Monday, with the low centered south of Cordova, the
a drying offshore flow pattern will develop as much of Southcentral
will be on the backside of the low, with any rainfall being located
near the Alaska range and Copper River Delta.

This drying trend will be short-lived though, as strong shortwave
energy, currently diving southeast through the central Bering,
reaches our current storm system by early Monday afternoon. As
this occurs, the low retrogrades (moves westward) towards the
Barren Islands once again. How far west and how much does it
deepen remains the main questions, as bombogenesis (at least a
24 mb drop in 24 hours) commences. This afternoon's model runs
aren't in good agreement with the track and strength, as the GFS
deepens it to ~977 mb. Conversely, the European (ECMWF) and NAM
numerical models are weaker at about 987 mb, and the Canadian
Global near 984 mb. While this has minimal effect on the overall
precipitation amounts, this difference could have impacts with
northerly flow on the western flank of the storm.

The main consensus though is for widespread rainfall to develop
for Monday night and Tuesday, with amounts generally in the one
half inch to one inch range a good possibility, as some residual
tropical moisture gets entrained into the storm. As of right now,
locations south and east of a Houston to Paxson line stand to see
the heavier/more widespread rainfall, with amounts tapering off
the further north and west one goes. This storm will then move off
to the south and east for Wednesday, with a renewed trying trend
developing.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/tonight
through Wednesday evening)...

The front that brought ample rainfall to Southwest has moved
eastward, leaving showery, cooler flow in its wake. Some patchy
morning fog is possible along the coastal areas as onshore flow
remains weak during the early morning hours Monday. A ridge will
move over the eastern Bering, bringing northwesterly flow to much
of Southwest by Monday night. Northwesterly winds are expected to
gust through the usual gaps and passes along the Alaska Peninsula
and across the greater Bristol Bay area Monday night into Tuesday.
Another weakening front arrives to the Southwest coast by Tuesday
night bringing showers and westerly onshore flow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/
tonight through Wednesday evening)...

An upper level ridge continues to build over the western Bering
through Monday. As the ridge moves eastward, winds will strengthen
across the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula Monday night into
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a front associated with a Kamchatka low
arrives over the western Aleutians Monday evening bringing gusty
southerly flow and rain. This front weakens as it traverses
eastward and brings generally westerly flow across the Bering for
Wednesday.

MARINE (Tue afternoon Thu night)...
The strong low pressure system in the Gulf will keep gale-force
winds along the back side of the low, mainly in the southern and
western Gulf. There could be some storm force gusts, especially
out of bays and passes on Tuesday afternoon, but sustained winds
should be max-gales. Those winds will taper off quickly Wednesday
night into Thursday as the system weakens toward the Panhandle.
The Bering Sea will see a period of relatively benign conditions
through mid-week as broad westerly flow sets up, but not very
strong. However, the fetch and time of westerly winds could stack
some larger waves/swell than the weaker winds would suggest. The
next significant system enters the Bering on Thursday with a gale-
force front.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Tue afternoon Sat night)...
The extended forecast begins with a Gulf of Alaska low near peak
intensity. However, that system quickly weakens while the pattern
shifts a little bit to a zonal jet stream with several strong
disturbances. The first disturbance spins up a very progressive
low that tracks into the Bering Strait region. The wind direction
and wind duration hint at some possible surge/coastal erosion
issues, but the worst should be north of the Kuskokwim Delta
area. However, there is some uncertainty associated with the
broader forecast as the remnants of Typhoon Mitag will make an
extratropical transition and phase with the jet over east Asia.
Both long range models (ECMWF and GFS) show a little different
progression of this feature. The ECMWF delays the trough into
which the tropical system phases, and hence not a great phase,
which results in a flat ridge downstream. The GFS looks to fully
phase the feature which really amplifies the downstream north
Pacific ridge. Details should become more clear early to mid week.
Stay tuned.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES: 119, 125, 130-132, 150, 351, 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...ML

&&