Hurricane Force Wind Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

635 
FZAK62 PAFC 141135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150045-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a 977 mb North Pacific low exits the
eastern Aleutians Mon night. A 960 mb low at 55N 178E moves to 60N
176W at 957 mb before moving towards the eastern Russia coast at
970 mb Wed morning. A 990 mb low at 51N 170E Tue morning moves to
57N 169W at 970 mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 50 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 23 ft building to 24 to 39 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 30 to 45 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 27 to 39 ft subsiding to 19 to 29 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft building to 33 to
48 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 40 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 32 to 47 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 23 to 35 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 14 to 22
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 24 to
39 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

476 
FZAK62 PAFC 142351
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151315-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low at 58N 175W moves ashore in western Siberia by Tue
afternoon at 961 mb. A strengthening 985 mb Kamchatka low at 54N 
170E moves to 55N 177E at 968 mb by Tue afternoon then moves to 
59N 164W at 974 mb by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Isolated thunderstorms
during the morning.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 28 to 43 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 26 to 37 ft subsiding to 18 to 27 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 40 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 30 to 45 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft building to 22 to
37 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 19 to 33 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft building to 16 to 31 ft after midnight.
Widespread rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Isolated thunderstorms S
of 57N.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

782 
FZAK62 PAFC 151143
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160100-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 958 mb low at 60N 175W moves to 59N 175E at 971 mb Wed morning 
before moving to 59N 174W at 984 mb Thu morning. A 987 mb low at 
51N 170E moves to 56N 169W at 968 mb Wed morning and then moves to
56N 165W at 977 mb Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 26 to 37 ft subsiding to 18 to 27 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 19 to 33 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft building to 16 to 31 ft after midnight.
Widespread rain showers.
.WED...W wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure over interior Alaska with relative low pressure over
the Bering and the Gulf has resulted in nearly clear skies over
almost all of southern Mainland Alaska this morning. The clear
skies and long nights are resulting in falling temperatures
across the area. Few areas away from the immediate coast are still
above freezing, with 20s widespread over Southcentral and interior
Southwest Alaska. An approaching North Pacific low is spreading
high cloud cover over Bristol Bay, Kodiak Island, and is slowly
encroaching on the southern Kenai Peninsula. These high clouds as
they are, are not able to even threaten any precipitation. Thus,
dry weather continues across the area.

Closer to the North Pacific low, centered well south of Sand
Point, rain is being drawn northwestward from the parent low due
to favorable upper level winds. Thus, from the Alaska Peninsula
over to Unalaska Island, light rain is moving into the area. A
separate front is moving across the western Aleutians, with rain
overtaking the islands around Shemya. This is in advance of the
extratropical low that was Typhoon Hagibis. Associated winds will
begin impacting the western Aleutians around midday today.

In the upper levels, a weak rex block has developed with a
relative upper level high over the Y-K delta, with an upper level
low near Dutch Harbor. A very strong 150 kt jet streak over
Kamchatka is beginning to impinge upon the western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Some uncertainty as to the track of former Typhoon Hagibis
persists in the models this morning. While its initial track has
been well agreed upon in the models for a couple days now, where
the center of the low ends up beyond Monday has been in constant
flux. The center of the rapidly strengthening low crosses the
western Aleutians late this afternoon, entering the Bering. Most
of the models continue to show the center turning towards the
north before it reaches 170W. How quickly that turn occurs is very
much in doubt, and is adding significant uncertainty to the
forecast. The models order themselves by Monday night by how
strong the low is at that time. The NAM is strongest and has the
low center near Kamchatka. Meanwhile the Canadian is weakest with
almost no turn depicted by the model. Thus, the Canadian has the
same low a bit north of St. Paul Island at the same time as the
NAM has the low on the coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The two
global models are about in the middle. Fortunately, regardless of
which of these tracks the low ends up following, the impacts over
land will be minimal with any of them.

Elsewhere, another area where there is some uncertainty in the
forecast is the depth of cold air over the Copper River Basin by
Monday night. Not only would that have an obvious impact on the
temperatures in that area, but more importantly, how strong the
winds are through the Matanuska Valley, and through
Valdez/Thompson Pass. Otherwise, quiet weather is highly likely to
persist over nearly all of mainland southern Alaska. Thus,
forecast confidence is dependent on ones location. For the Bering,
confidence is lower than normal, while for most of mainland
Alaska the confidence is very high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure remains over Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska
and should persist over Southcentral the next few days. Over the
Gulf, a front will push into this ridge and bring gale force
winds into the Gulf tonight into Monday. Due to the strength of
this blocking ridge over the mainland, the winds along the coast
will increase with the tightening presure gradient, but the
precipitation should stay over the Gulf (and Kodiak) until at
least Tuesday.

This ridge will also keep clear skies over the inland areas of Southcentral
until some higher clouds move inland Tuesday. This will bring in
colder temperatures the next two nights with numerous areas
reaching into the teens and perhaps some single digit lows in the
Copper River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The forecast pattern commences with ridging over western Alaska.
Mild weather expected today and most of Monday for southwest
Alaska. A strong system will be pushing through the Bering on
Monday. The leading edge of the precipitation shield will move
into the west coast Monday afternoon. Expect moisture to increase
with gusty southerly or southeasterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The main event will be the extratropical transition of Hagibis
and the ensuing re-strengthening of the surface low over the
Bering as cold air gets entrained. By 00z Monday, both the GFS
and ECMWF have a 985mb/984mb low south of Attu Island and rapidly
moving into the Bering by 06z Monday and deepening to 975mb/976mb
respectively. By 18z Monday, the GFS and ECMWF have the surface
low west of the Pribilof Islands with surfaces pressures of
956mb/959mb. The pressure gradient forces over the Bering will be
formidable most of the forecast period. Storm force winds and
hurricane force winds will materialize over the Bering. Rough seas
and widespread precipitation anticipated Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Post-tropical cyclone Hagibis will begin to
fill and exit to the northern Bering Tuesday. Thus, while storm
force winds will initially be widespread in the Bering (with a
broad swath of gales elsewhere), winds will diminish during the
day. While models have come into better agreement with the track
of former Hagibis, there is still a lot of uncertainty with what
comes after. The main theme is that either a short wave or a
closed low will develop near the western Aleutians late Tuesday.
This feature will track eastward across the Bering just north of
the Aleutians late Tuesday into Wednesday. Increased winds are
expected, but the strength will depend whether a closed low
forms...so for now, the range of possibilities spans from low end
gales to storm force winds. As the cold air mass behind the
associated front moves across the warmer SSTs of the Bering,
instability will increase thus isolated thunderstorms look
possible over the southern Bering Sea Wednesday. Winds will
diminish Thursday and general cyclonic flow will prevail in the
Bering.

Gulf of Alaska: Easterly winds in the northern Gulf will diminish
Monday into Tuesday. The forecast in the Gulf becomes murky by
Wednesday. General low pressure is expected with winds mostly
below advisory level... however small craft advisory level swell-
driven seas will likely persist. Late Wednesday, an upper low
will cross the AKPEN then redevelop a surface low in the Gulf
early Thursday. High uncertainty continues with this setup, but
assuming this low comes to fruition, expect increased winds and
precipitation in the periphery of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The excitement in the long term continues to be focused in the
Bering Sea and Aleutians. As post-tropical cyclone Hagibis exits
to the northern Bering Tuesday, focus turns to what happens in its
wake. Model consistency remains poor, but the general theme is
that either a short wave or a deeper closed low will develop in
the baroclinic zone under a 160 to 170kt jet. It will traverse the
southern Bering (just north of the Aleutians) from west to east
and likely bring a brief return of gales to the Aleutians/
southern Bering. Isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the
associated front Wednesday as modified Arctic air flows over
relatively warm water.

Meanwhile, due to the track of the former typhoon, impacts over
the Southwest mainland look minimal. As the system shifts
northward, it will push a cold front across the Aleutians into the
west coast in the rough Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
Precipitation will be possible along the west coast, and increased
southerly winds are expected. However, it's worth noting that the
front will have significantly weakened by the time it reaches the
mainland. Thus, while the Kuskokwim Delta Coast could see gusts
above 40kt, warning level winds are not expected. In the Wednesday
to Thursday timeframe, precipitation in the Bristol Bay area will
be possible as the other low/short wave moves into the coast...
but confidence is poor given the inconsistency in that feature.

Friday into Saturday, longwave troughing will set in from the
central Pacific into the Bering. Expect cloudier weather and
general southerly flow over Southwest. Models indicate shortwaves
will likely rotate around the low bringing periods of unsettled
weather, but it's way too soon to get into timing/location
specifics.

Over Southcentral, generally dry weather is expected through
midweek. High pressure will persist over northern Alaska, and
cold conditions inland with offshore winds will dominate through
midweek. With this scenario, increased winds are likely in the
usual gaps, including Thompson Pass and the Matanuska Valley. A
series of fronts will move from the Gulf northward. This will
potentially bring precipitation to the North Gulf Coast, but
generally expect precipitation to stay over the marine area.
During the later part of the week, the ridge will retrograde to
the north. A wetter, or at least cloudier pattern is possible and
overnight lows won't be quite as cold as earlier in the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 177, 411, 413.
Storm Warning: 173-176, 178, 179, 412.
Gale Warning: 120, 131, 132, 138, 150, 155, 165, 170, 172, 180,
			  181, 185, 351, 352, 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM