Hurricane Force Wind Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

334 
FZAK62 PAFC 132346
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141345-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 52N 171E Sun afternoon moves to 57N 175E at 951 
mb Monday afternoon, with a front crossing the region from west to
east. The low then moves to 62N 179E Tuesday afternoon, with the 
front reaching southwest Alaska. A new low then moves from the 
west Pacific to 64N 179E at 977 mb Tuesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. S of 56N, SE wind 25 to 35 kt becoming W 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 32 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. S of 57N, SE wind 40 to 50 kt becoming W
55 to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 19 to 34 
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 27 to 42 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 9 to 17 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.MON...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 32 to 47 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 35 to 50 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 11 to 19 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 23 to 37 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

635 
FZAK62 PAFC 141135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150045-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a 977 mb North Pacific low exits the
eastern Aleutians Mon night. A 960 mb low at 55N 178E moves to 60N
176W at 957 mb before moving towards the eastern Russia coast at
970 mb Wed morning. A 990 mb low at 51N 170E Tue morning moves to
57N 169W at 970 mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 50 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 23 ft building to 24 to 39 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 30 to 45 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 27 to 39 ft subsiding to 19 to 29 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft building to 33 to
48 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 40 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 32 to 47 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 23 to 35 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft building to 14 to 22
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft building to 24 to
39 ft after midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

476 
FZAK62 PAFC 142351
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151315-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low at 58N 175W moves ashore in western Siberia by Tue
afternoon at 961 mb. A strengthening 985 mb Kamchatka low at 54N 
170E moves to 55N 177E at 968 mb by Tue afternoon then moves to 
59N 164W at 974 mb by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Isolated thunderstorms
during the morning.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 28 to 43 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 26 to 37 ft subsiding to 18 to 27 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 40 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 30 to 45 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft building to 22 to
37 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 19 to 33 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft building to 16 to 31 ft after midnight.
Widespread rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Isolated thunderstorms S
of 57N.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Skies have cleared across much of the southern Mainland as broad
offshore flow develops in the wake of a southeast retreating low
over the eastern Gulf. Strongest gap flows to 35 kt were evident
across the northern and western Gulf. Satellite imagery shows a
developing low and associated front over the North Pacific heading
north toward the Alaska Peninsula. Satellite imagery also shows a
fairly disorganized surface low southwest of the Pribilof
islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The Models overall have a similar broad synoptic handling of
surface features, particularity the remnants of Hagibis, through
Monday morning. The Canadian NH becomes a significant outlier as
it drops the remnants of Hagibis south of the Aleutians Tuesday,
while the remainder of the model suites move it north. Otherwise,
will lean toward the GFS with this feature (Hagibis) for
consistency.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Northwest flow aloft and offshore flow at the low levels along the
coast is supporting the stunning fall afternoon that has enveloped
the region. Offshore flow weakens tonight as high pressure takes
over, thus expect much cooler temps tonight as inversions develop
with clear skies.

A front will move into the Southern Gulf of Alaska bringing gales
and rain to Kodiak by Sun night and Monday, but high pressure and
clear skies continue to dominate into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sun and Mon)...
A rather benign weather pattern will persist for the end of the
weekend and start of the week. A weak area of high pressure will
move through the area tonight into Sun keeping the area dry and
mostly clear. We can't rule out some patchy fog Sun AM, especially
along river valleys. During the day Sun, a North Pacific low will
slide closer to Kodiak Island as it strengthens. The net effect
for much of SW AK will be an increase in offshore/NE winds. These
winds will reinforce the dry conditions as they pull air from the
Interior portions of AK. The Alaska Peninsula will be clipped by
this system as it pivots through the area. Winds will reach into
the 20-30 mph range along the peninsula with the best chances for
rain on the southern side late Sun afternoon and evening.

A much stronger system will be pushing through the Bering on Mon.
It will start to brush up against the West coast by Mon afternoon
bringing a sharp switch to gusty south-southeast winds. Clouds
will be on the increase through the day as well with rain moving
in by the evening timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sun and
Mon)...
The remnants of Typhoon Hagibis continue to be the big story for
the Bering and Aleutians as we move into the early part of the
week. First, there is one weak low bringing some showers to the
Eastern Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands this evening. This
feature will merge with a developing North Pacific system heading
into Sun. This will keep light rain falling from Dutch Harbor to Sand
Point through most of Sun before the system pulls away into the
Gulf of AK Sun night.

The forecast envelope is starting to narrow for the track and
strength of Hagibis as we move into Sun night and Mon. The biggest
change to this forecast package is to shift the low slightly to
the north as the models continue to develop a consensus. As it
makes the extra-tropical transition, it will tap into some cold
air over Siberia on Mon. This will allow the surface pressure to
drop into the mid 950 mb range Mon morning. The surface pressure
gradient will tighten up during this time and allow for some
hurricane-force winds to wrap around the western side of the low.
These winds look to primarily impact the marine areas and hold to
the north of the Aleutian Chain. However, there will still be a
chance of some localized hurricane-force gusts for the Central
Aleutians to include Atka and Adak. There will be plenty of rain
associated with this storm as well. With strong upper level
support and some low level cold air advection, the system will be
able to maintain its intensity for quite some time. It will slowly
track to the north-northeast and allow for the waves to continue
to build into Tue. We have increased the peak wave heights by
about 5 ft early Tue morning with this forecast package. Please
see the Marine Weather Statement and the Coastal Waters Forecast
for more details on this storm.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Post-tropical cyclone Hagibis will begin to
fill and exit to the northern Bering Tuesday. Thus, while storm
force winds will initially be widespread in the Bering (with a
broad swath of gales elsewhere), winds will diminish during the
day. While models have come into better agreement with the track
of former Hagibis, there is still a lot of uncertainty with what
comes after. The main theme is that either a short wave or a
closed low will develop near the western Aleutians late Tuesday.
This feature will track eastward across the Bering just north of
the Aleutians late Tuesday into Wednesday. Increased winds are
expected, but the strength will depend on whether a closed low
forms... so for now, the range of possibilities span from low end
gales to storm force winds. As the cold air mass behind the
associated front moves across the warmer SSTs of the Bering,
instability will increase, thus isolated thunderstorms look
possible over the southern Bering Sea Wednesday. Winds will
diminish Thursday and general cyclonic flow will prevail in the
Bering.

Gulf of Alaska: Easterly winds in the northern Gulf will diminish
Monday into Tuesday. The forecast in the Gulf becomes murky by
Wednesday. General low pressure is expected with winds mostly
below advisory level... however small craft advisory level swell-
driven seas will likely persist. Late Wednesday, an upper low
will cross the AKPEN then redevelop a surface low in the Gulf
early Thursday. High uncertainty continues with this setup, but
assuming this low comes to fruition, expect increased winds and
precipitation in the periphery of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The excitement in the long term continues to be focused in the
Bering Sea and Aleutians. As post-tropical cyclone Hagibis exits
to the northern Bering Tuesday, focus turns to what happens in its
wake. Model consistency remains poor, but the general theme is
that either a short wave or a deeper closed low will develop in
the baroclinic zone under a 160 to 170kt jet. It will traverse the
southern Bering (just north of the Aleutians) from west to east
and likely bring a brief return of gales to the Aleutians/
southern Bering. Isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the
associated front Wednesday as modified Arctic air flows over
relatively warm water.

Meanwhile, due to the track of the former typhoon, impacts over
the Southwest mainland look minimal. As the system shifts
northward, it will push a cold front across the Aleutians into the
west coast in the rough Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
Precipitation will be possible along the west coast, and increased
southerly winds are expected. However, it's worth noting that the
front will have significantly weakened by the time it reaches the
mainland. Thus, while the Kuskokwim Delta Coast could see gusts
above 40kt, warning level winds are not expected. In the Wednesday
to Thursday timeframe, precipitation in the Bristol Bay area will
be possible as the other low/short wave moves into the coast...
but confidence is poor given the inconsistency in that feature.

Friday into Saturday, longwave troughing will set in from the
central Pacific into the Bering. Expect cloudier weather and
general southerly flow over Southwest. Models indicate shortwaves
will likely rotate around the low bringing periods of unsettled
weather, but it's way too soon to get into timing/location
specifics.

Over Southcentral, generally dry weather is expected through
midweek. High pressure will persist over northern Alaska, and
cold conditions inland with offshore winds will dominate through
midweek. With this scenario, increased winds are likely in the
usual gaps, including Thompson Pass and the Matanuska Valley. A
series of fronts will move from the Gulf northward. This will
potentially bring precipitation to the North Gulf Coast, but
generally expect precipitation to stay over the marine area.
During the later part of the week, the ridge will retrograde to
the north. A wetter, or at least cloudier pattern is possible and
overnight lows won't be quite as cold as earlier in the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...131, 132, 138, 351, 352, 412, 150, 155, 173, 176.
		 Storms...411, 413, 175, 177, 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM