Gale Warning 730, NWS Anchorage, AK

530 
FZAK52 PAFC 151243
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160145-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb low over Dutch Harbor moves south and phases with a new 
977 mb low 150 nm east of Sand Point Sun night. The low then 
moves into the Gulf Mon morning. A 978 mb low 200 nm southwest of
Adak Sun night moves 60 nm south of Cold Bay at 970 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ150-160145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 25
kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160145-
Bristol Bay-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. From Unalaska E, NE wind 15 kt becoming NW
30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160145-
Unalaska Bay-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160145-
Adak to Kiska-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...Bering side, N wind 40 kt. Pacific side, W wind 15 kt 
becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160145-
Kiska to Attu-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

724 
FZAK52 PAFC 160044
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161400-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the eastern Bering Sun afternoon will dissipate by
Mon afternoon. A complex 974 mb low 680 nm SW of Atka Sun night 
will move 250 nm NW of Atka at 970 mb Mon afternoon. The low then
moves 310 nm SE of Cold Bay at 968 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20
kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, N wind 15 kt in
the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind
20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161400-
Bristol Bay-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161400-
Unalaska Bay-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft building to 22 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161400-
Adak to Kiska-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161400-
Kiska to Attu-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

241 
FZAK52 PAFC 161245
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170145-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the eastern Bering will dissipate by Mon afternoon. 
A complex 974 mb low currently 150 nm S of Shemya will move to 
250 nm NW of Atka at 970 mb Mon afternoon. The low then moves 310 
nm SE of Cold Bay at 968 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-170145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, N wind 15 kt. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 20
kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170145-
Bristol Bay-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170145-
Unalaska Bay-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft building to 22 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170145-
Adak to Kiska-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170145-
Kiska to Attu-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

285 
FZAK52 PAFC 170000
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171300-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 mb low 40 nm south of Dutch Harbor Mon night will move 200
nm SE of Port Heiden at 972 mb Tue afternoon. The low will then 
move south of the Gulf Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15
kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt except N 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171300-
Bristol Bay-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171300-
Unalaska Bay-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft building to 20 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171300-
Adak to Kiska-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171300-
Kiska to Attu-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A closed blocking high continues to dominate the northern part of
Alaska. A once strong gale force North Pacific low now over the
southern Kenai is beginning to finally move inland as the upper
closed low opens up into a shortwave trough. Over the Pacific
Ocean,a strong storm force low along the eastern periphery of a
larger upper trough is moving north into the Eastern Aleutians.
This low is rather compact in nature as evidenced by satellite
imagery and ASCAT wind passes from the polar orbiters, with the
strongest core of cold air advection storm force winds still over
the open waters of the Pacific. Over the mainland, extensive fog
and stratus has formed over Southwest Alaska behind a departing
and weakening sheared out upper shortwave trough. Rain showers are
still pushing up along the North Gulf Coast, and some inland
sprinkles are pushing over the Chugach into Anchorage and the
western Kenai. Temps continue to run well above normal for inland
Southcentral (except the Copper Basin).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Same story as yesterday as the models are in excellent agreement
with the large scale pattern heading out into next week now, but
are in lesser agreement with the strong storm moving over the
Eastern Aleutians today and tonight, and a series of frontal waves
which will move up toward the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol
Bay Sunday. For now, a continued blend to the GFS was favored as
it fits a good middle ground with everything, and shifts the
strong eastern Aleutian low farther east which now puts the center
over Dutch harbor, with the strongest winds all around Dutch.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There still remains a chance of light precipitation as the
upper low over the Gulf opens into a trough and crosses overhead
of Anchorage between about 12Z and 18Z today. However, low level
southeasterly flow will persist, so VFR ceilings should persist.
Precipitation-type is also a challenge, with forecast soundings
maintaining at least a small above freezing layer. Could see rain,
freezing rain, or even snow - but precipitation will be very
light and possibly not even measurable. As the upper wave passes
by, Turnagain winds will bend into Anchorage, which will cause
temperatures to jump to well above freezing. These winds will be
relatively short-lived. As a front moves into the southwestern
Gulf Saturday afternoon, down Inlet pressure gradients will
strengthen and push the Turnagain wind back over the northern
Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
A vertically stacked low will eject over Southcentral early today
while a new front will push into the Western and Northern Gulf of
AK by tonight. The radar is showing widespread returns this
morning from the Southern Susitna Valley down through Middleton
Island. This is a result of the low moving from due south to north
over the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet. Even though the radars
are active, precipitation is having a hard time making it to the
ground for most places thanks to dry air in the low levels of the
atmosphere. As moisture increases this morning, we still expect a
likely chance of some wintry mix to fall around the Cook Inlet, to
include possibly some freezing rain in the colder spots (East
Anchorage). However, anything that does fall should be very light.
For higher elevations such as Turnagain, Thompson, and Hatcher
Passes, a couple inches of snow will be possible through the
morning. Gusty southeast winds will also accompany this low
through many of the usual gaps and higher terrain. Some of these
winds could briefly mix into West Anchorage later today, though
gusts should only be to about 25 mph at most.

A new front will start to work into the Western Gulf by tonight.
This will cause the winds to switch around again for places near
the Cook Inlet thanks to an offshore gradient. This means that the
Matanuska Valley will remain breezy heading into Sun. Rainfall for
the coastal areas will slowly wane late Sat and through much of
Sun for the first time in several days. The exception to this will
be Kodiak Island where the front will bring rain back in earnest
by Sat afternoon. Then, by Sun afternoon, the front will start to
track up along the southern Kenai Peninsula and bring steady rain
back into Western Prince William Sound. Most inland locations will
remain dry on Sun thanks to cross-barrier flow at mountain top.
This flow will also continue to keep temperatures quiet mild for
mid-December.

&&

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low centered over the eastern Aleutians continues to slowly lift
northward. Its front will spread in over Southwest today, bringing
gusty southeasterly flow. The Kuskokwim Valley will not see much
precipitation from this front today as the occluded system pulls
the boundary northwestward across the Bering.

A second front moves into Southwest Sunday morning, bringing
another round of gusty southeasterly winds. Current thinking is
that most of the precipitation will be around the Bristol Bay
area, though the Kuskokwim Delta coast may see trace amounts of
snow Sunday. Winds will generally weaken by Sunday evening, as the
low in the eastern Bering moves into the Gulf of Alaska for the
start of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Active weather continues for Bering this weekend. First, a strong
low centered over the central Aleutians has brought gales to much
of the southern Bering Sea with an area of storm force winds over
the water on the south side of the low center. As this storm
slowly lifts toward the northeast, storm force winds are possible
on the western side of the low by this evening, mainly between
Atka and Nikolski. As this low weakens and exits to the south,
another low approaches the western Bering by Sunday afternoon.
The associated front will bring gale force winds to the western
Aleutians. Warmer, southerly flow will allow for precipitation to
fall as rain on the east side of this storm, while mixed
rain/snow or all snow will fall on the west side of the low
as colder air is drawn down from the north.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...
The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian
Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft
advisories or gale warnings will be the norm as each storm system
moves through. Forecast confidence with low and frontal positions
is above average.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The global models are in decent agreement with the synoptic
pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Thursday December
19th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one
near the AKPEN and a Kamchatka low. There is a dome of high
pressure between the two. There are some minor difference with the
timing of two different cyclones but the forecast intensity is
only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is very similar.
Expect these systems to move from west to east with the first
storm tracking into the Gulf Of Alaska. All the while, the second
storm will head into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing
across the Aleutian chain. For Southcentral Alaska, temperatures
will be near or slightly above normal. For the Anchorage metro
area the chances of snow in this forecast period look very slim
given the current run of the models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 155 172-174 130 131.
		 Gale Warning 413 414 150 160 165 170 175-180 351 352 119 120 132-139 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB/PJS