Gale Warning 677, NWS Anchorage, AK

563 
FZAK62 PAFC 160038
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161400-
338 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the eastern Bering Sun afternoon will dissipate by
Mon afternoon. A complex 974 mb low at 49N 171E Sun night will 
move to 52N 179W at 970 mb Mon afternoon. The low then moves to 
55N 155W at 968 mb Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-161400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...E wind up to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

834 
FZAK62 PAFC 161244
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170245-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the eastern Bering will dissipate by Mon afternoon. 
A complex 974 mb low currently at 51N 175E will move to 52N 179W 
at 970 mb Mon afternoon. The low then moves to 55N 155W at 968 mb 
Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow showers and
rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow showers and
widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 AM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TODAY...E wind up to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

887 
FZAK62 PAFC 170000
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171415-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 mb low at 53N 166W Mon night will move to 55N 155W at 972 mb
Tue afternoon. The low will then move south of the Gulf Wed
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and widespread 
rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
300 PM AKST Mon Dec 16 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

493 
FZAK62 PAFC 171233
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180300-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the southern Bering will dissipate today. Northerly 
flow across the Bering will develop this afternoon. A front enters 
the western Bering late Wednesday.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weak upper short wave is lifting north across the Southcentral
this afternoon. In response showers are evident across much of the
Gulf, Kenai Peninsula, and the Cook to Susitna Valley corridor.
Though strong southeast cross-barrier flow minimized precipitation
potential to the lee (west) of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. A
stacked low pressure center was over the eastern Aleutians with
an occluded front extending from just south of the Pribilof
Islands to over Kodiak Island. Rain/snow associated with this
front as evident across the Pribilofs, Southwest Mainland, to rain
over Kodiak Island. Widespread rain and showers were also
observed over the Eastern ALeutians and AK Peninsula. Strong and
gusty cyclonic flow, associated with the large low center over the
eastern Aleutians, was evident by brisk northerly winds to its
west and strong easterly winds stretching across the Gulf of
Alaska. Tight east to west pressure gradients produced strong
easterly winds along Turnagain Arm.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models from a synoptic perspective are in fair agreement. There are
some positional differences in the surface low near Kodiak/AK Pen
tonight and Sunday. However, the general sensible weather should
be fairly close.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds across the airport
complex will become north by early evening. This, combined with
Southeasterly winds aloft, will bring LLWS through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A trough producing widespread showers across Prince William Sound
will continue to lift north overnight as it slowly weakens. A
front associated with a low pressure system over the central
Aleutians will track northeast from the western Gulf and approach
the northern Gulf and Southcentral coast Sunday. Rain along the
front will continue to provide wet conditions for Kodiak City
tonight through the weekend. This area of precipitation will
advance with the front, spreading over the Southcentral coast
Sunday and Monday. This front will also produce winds up to storm
force and high seas from the Barren Islands to the Copper River
Delta beginning Sunday. The high winds and rough seas are expected
to persist until Monday morning.

Despite this wet pattern, the Anchorage Bowl and western
Kenai Peninsula are not receiving much, if any, precipitation.
This is due to downsloping from rain falling on the windward side
of the Chugach/Kenai mountains which makes it difficult for
precipitation to make it to the leeward side. These dry conditions
look to remain through Monday night. Winds look to remain
southeasterly, which will keep Turnagain Arm wind gusts around 30
to 50 mph through Sunday before slowly tapering off. Patchy fog in
the Copper River Basin is the greatest forecast challenge, as
temperatures look to stay cold ahead of the front. Whether fog
occurs or not will be a matter of the sky clearing overnight. If
it clears, temperatures will be able to drop closer to the
dewpoint. This, along with little to no wind, are ingredients
needed for fog development. If clouds linger and temperatures stay
a bit warmer across the basin, widespread fog may not have the
opportunity to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A low pressure system 150 miles southeast of St Paul Island this
afternoon will be responsible for a round of active weather for
southwest Alaska on Sunday. Gusty winds will impact the area, with
Bristol Bay and coastal areas seeing the strongest winds through
Sunday evening. While precipitation will be primarily rain across
Southwest Alaska, areas of the Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim
Delta will see snow. As winds return to the northeast, Southwest
Alaska will see some mixed rain and snow showers on Monday as
colder air comes back in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A low pressure system 150 miles southeast of St Paul Island will
be responsible for strong winds and widespread rain and snow
showers across the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians through
Sunday night. As the system weakens Monday, rain showers will
remain through Monday night. Another strong low pressure system
will enter the Western Aleutians Sunday evening, with another
round of strong winds and precipitation.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian
Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft
advisories to gale warnings are expected as this low pressure
system moves through. Additionally, expect light to heavy freezing
spray from Hooper Bay to Nunivak Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The global models are in decent agreement with the longwave
pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Friday December
20th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows,
one near Kodiak Island and a Kamchatka low. There is a ridge axis
between the two systems. There are some minor differences with
the timing of two different surface lows but the forecast
intensity is only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is
very similar. Overall, the run to run continuity with these two
lows has been decent. Expect these systems to move from west to
east with the first storm tracking into the Gulf Of Alaska and
later towards SE AK. All the while, the second storm will head
into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing across the
Aleutian chain. For Southcentral Alaska, temperatures will be near
or slightly above normal. Again, for the Anchorage metro area the
chances of snow in this forecast period range from zero to slight
chance.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 120 130 131.
 Gale Warning 125 132 136>136 141 155 165 170>179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LB
MARINE/LONG TERM...PJS