Gale Warning 70, NWS Anchorage, AK

404 
FZAK51 PAFC 211244
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220200-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
Low pressure persists over the Gulf through Tue afternoon. A 
front in the western Gulf moves to the central Gulf Tue night.

$$

PKZ119-220200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220200-
Resurrection Bay-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TODAY...N wind to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
Rain and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220200-
Prince William Sound-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220200-
Port Valdez-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220200-
Valdez Narrows-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220200-
Valdez Arm-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220200-
Passage Canal-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
Rain and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220200-
Barren Islands East-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220200-
Chiniak Bay-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220200-
Marmot Bay-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220200-
Shelikof Strait-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow changing to rain in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE wind 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-220200-
Kachemak Bay-
344 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

760 
FZAK51 PAFC 212358
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221245-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front extends from Southwest Alaska across the Gulf into 
Southeast Alaska through Tue afternoon. A second front sweeps the 
Western Gulf by Wed morning. A 972 mb low 335 nm South of Sand 
Point Tue afternoon moves to Southwest Alaska Wed afternoon. Its 
front drives to the North Gulf Coast by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-221245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221245-
Resurrection Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221245-
Prince William Sound-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221245-
Port Valdez-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221245-
Valdez Narrows-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221245-
Valdez Arm-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221245-
Passage Canal-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and
rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221245-
Barren Islands East-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221245-
Chiniak Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221245-
Marmot Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221245-
Shelikof Strait-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-221245-
Kachemak Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKST Sun Jan 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level ridge is centered over the northern Bering
and extends across most of the Bering and mainland Alaska. This is
leading to relatively quiet weather across most of the state this
morning with clear and cold conditions. Satellite imagery shows
fog and low stratus lurking in the Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, and
Turnagain Arm areas while stratus can seen seen covering most the
Copper River Basin. A weak surface low in the Gulf is drawing cold
air south from the inland areas leading to gusty outflow winds
along the coast including in Whittier, Seward, near Valdez, and
Thompson Pass.

Most of the action lies further west as a front weakens and shears
apart across the western Aleutians while a strong (sub 960 mb) low
pushes north towards the central Aleutians. A front out ahead of
the low is currently passing over Adak and Atka while
recent scatterometer passes show gale to localized storm force
winds wrapping around the low center approaching the island chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into better agreement regarding the major
synoptic features impacting the state through the early part of
the week, specifically a strong north Pacific low over the
central Aleutians with a series of fronts moving north and east
across the southern mainland. Models show good enough agreement
with these features to confidently add in details surrounding
into the forecast, though there are still some minor timing
differences with a front pushing up the Gulf on Tuesday. Models
begin to come apart by Thursday as they are struggling with timing
and placement of a continual barrage of lows and fronts embedded
within strong southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The 12Z sounding shows drier low levels and a shallower
inversion than the last two nights. Thus, the fog threat is much
less this morning, though webcams and local ASOS stations in the
Anchorage Bowl still show some low stratus lingering near the Knik
Arm. Decided to only tempo in LIFR conditions for this morning
with less confidence of dense fog setting up. The fog threat
decreases even more for tonight as a cold upper level low swings a
bit further south towards Anchorage, which will help to mix the
atmosphere and further weaken the low level inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Monday night)...
A short-wave digging southward across western Alaska today will
cause the mean low level flow over Southcentral to back from west
to south. Some existing showers sitting over the northern Gulf
will then advect onshore across eastern Prince William Sound and
into the southern Copper River Basin. The showers are not all
that impressive right now, but as warmer air from the Gulf is
forced over top of colder air over land, precipitation will
increase. Elsewhere across Southcentral, cold and dry conditions
will persist. Some patchy fog and low clouds will linger in the
Anchorage area as well as the Copper River Basin. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies will dominate.

An occluded front extending from a deep Aleutian low will make
its way to Kodiak Island tonight into Monday. The airmass in
place is cold enough to support snow, so expect some light snow
accumulation before a changeover to rain by early Monday for most
locations. The surface front will continue to weaken as it lifts
northward Monday due to formation of a triple point low tracking
to the eastern Gulf. A series of upper level short-waves combined
with isentropic lift will spread precipitation northward across
Southcentral Monday through Monday night. For many inland areas,
have just included a chance of snow, as expect precipitation to
be very light and may just see a dusting of snow out of this.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure over the northwestern Bering Sea and an Arctic
upper low over northern AK will maintain offshore flow and cold,
dry conditions throughout the day today. Patchy fog in the lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta should lift by late morning.

Late tonight, a front associated with a low shifting towards the
central Aleutians from the North Pacific will bring a pattern
change to wetter conditions. The front will bring precipitation to
the AKPEN Monday morning with heaviest accumulation on the Gulf
side, then precipitation will spread northward as the front
shifts. With cold air in place, expect ptypes along the front to
begin as snow but transition to a rain/snow mix or rain as warmer
air moves in from the south. Precipitation should reach the
Bristol Bay area by Monday evening, with areas of blowing snow
possible. A shortwave associated with the main low will enhance
precip rates north of Dillingham into the Kilbuck and Ahklun
mountains. There's a chance of snow in the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley/Y-K Delta but based on the trajectory of the front, those
areas will be in the snow shadow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A front associated with a low that has shifted northwest out of
the western Aleutians will continue to bring precipitation to the
western and central Aleutians today. A storm force low in the
North Pacific is slowly approaching the central Aleutians. Winds
in the coastal waters have already reached gale force, and the
0925z ASCAT pass observed storm force winds in the periphery of
the low. Expect widespread gales to spread north into the central
Bering including the Pribilofs today, with a band of storm force
winds just south of the central Aleutians. An occluded front
associated with this low will bring a large area of potential
precip today, from the western Aleutians to the AKPEN. With cold
air in place from northeast flow, expect initial ptype of snow in
the Aleutians. As the low shifts northwestward tonight, precipitation
will transition to rain as warm air lifts northward. In addition,
expect an area of storm force winds in the Bering side of the
Aleutians this evening as that low shifts. Monday, expect a
deformation zone to set up across the Bering, bringing snow and
blowing snow to the Pribilofs.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

The marine outlook is fraught with uncertainty through this period
with significant model uncertainty. Most of the models have a low
somewhere over the central Aleutians on Tuesday morning, but there
are several hundred miles difference in the centers between the
western-most EC and the eastern-most Canadian models at that time.
This low remains more-or-less stationary into Wednesday and acts
as an anchor low as a series of additional waves of low pressure
move northward across the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula
through Thursday. Each of the lows has the potential to produce
gales and perhaps even some storm force winds in localized areas,
but with large model uncertainty Wednesday and Thursday in both
timing and storm track, where and when those strong winds will
occur cannot be said at this point. The Gulf will be relatively
quiet, though any fronts or lows that take a more eastward track
my produce gale force winds at times across the western Gulf as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

Model uncertainty with the track of individual lows and as a
result, any hazardous weather associated therewith is high today.
A few things can be said regarding the large-scale weather
pattern, however. An upper level trough over the central Bering
will shift west and consolidate into an upper level low that will
persist over the western Bering through Saturday. Further east,
an upper level ridge over the western half of North America will
amplify through the week. With much of mainland Alaska in between,
this will set the stage for the pattern to become increasingly
active as the upper level winds turn predominately out of the
south. The southerly winds and frequent bouts of precipitation
should return Southern Alaska to a notably warmer and cloudier
weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. The upper low shifts
further west towards Kamchatka, which in turn will shift the
storm track slowly westward in time perhaps allowing for quieter
weather for the weekend. A quieter weather pattern may start to
allow temperatures to moderate cooler back towards seasonal
normals, but until then warm and wet will be the weather theme.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storms 172 173 174.
         Gales 155 165 170 171 175 176 177 179 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 139 160 180 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW