Gale Warning 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

365 
FZAK61 PAFC 221257
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-230215-
357 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the southwestern Gulf weakens as it moves to the northern
Gulf Tue night. A second stronger front enters the southwestern Gulf
Tue evening and lifts inland over Prince William Sound Wed morning. 
A 1000 mb North Pacific low moves to 56N 149W Wed night.

$$

PKZ351-230215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt 
after midnight. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-230215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

800 
FZAK61 PAFC 230012
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 PM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-231315-
312 PM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front pushes across the Gulf for Wed afternoon. A 991 mb
low at 54N 152W Wed night drives over the Kenai Peninsula at 1002
mb by Thu afternoon. Its front swings into the North Gulf Coast
and Southeast Alaska through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-231315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
312 PM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-231315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
312 PM AKST Tue Jan 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

761 
FZAK61 PAFC 231245
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-240200-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A strong front in the western Gulf moves to the northeastern Gulf
Wed morning and then lifts inland Wed afternoon. A second front in
the southwestern Gulf Wed evening moves to the northern Gulf Thu
morning.

$$

PKZ351-240200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt 
after midnight. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-240200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

607 
FZAK61 PAFC 240039
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-241345-
339 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front along the North Gulf Coast pushes inland late tonight. A
front moves across the southern gulf late tonight and pushes to the
coast early Thu morning. A 975 mb low develops near 55N 155W Thu
night and moves inland over the Kenai Fri morning with its front 
pushing inland Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-241345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
339 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 ft building to 16 to 24 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 19 to 31 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-241345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
339 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming S 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 increasing to 55 kt around midnight. Seas 18
ft building to to 28 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level ridge is retreating as a low pressure system south
of the Aleutians is pushing a front north across the southern
mainland. Satellite imagery shows high and mid level cloud cover
streaming north across the the AKPEN and Gulf of Alaska as
precipitation is beginning to show up on the King Salmon radar
just to the south of King Salmon. A weak surface low is currently
spinning over the Gulf bringing snow showers to the Price William
Sound and Northern Gulf Coast. Radar imagery also shows snow
showers pushing across the Western Kenai Peninsula and even across
the Anchorage area, though local observations and webcams show
this is mostly evaporating before reaching the ground. Meanwhile,
the surface low further west over the Aleutians is bringing
strong winds and snow showers to the area, with scatterometer
passes showing a wide swath of gale force winds over most of the
southern Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through Tuesday as a series of fronts
pushes north across the AKPEN and Gulf of Alaska. By Wednesday, a
secondary low moves up from the North Pacific and crosses over
the AKPEN and into Bristol Bay. Models have recently been
struggling with how far east or west the low would track, which
would have a significant impact to weather across the southern
mainland. The NAM has been the outlier tracking the low further
east across the SW mainland while the GFS and EC have been keeping
the low further west over Bristol Bay. Recent NAM runs have been
trending further west towards the GFS/EC solutions, thus trended
towards that solution as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...An approaching front from the south is helping to
destabilize the atmosphere and has eroded all remaining fog and
low stratus in the area. VFR conditions and light northeasterly
winds will prevail for the TAF period with just a chance of some
light snow this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Tuesday night)...
Broad southerly flow above the surface combined with a weak upper
level wave will produce areas of very light snow across
Southcentral today. Generally expect flurries or a dusting inland.
Low level instability and upslope flow along the coast and Prince
William Sound will lead to snow showers and some minor snow
accumulation. Further south, a weakening occluded front extending
from a deep low along the Aleutians will slowly lift northward
toward Kodiak Island today, then fall apart before reaching the
northern Gulf tonight. Another upper level short-wave will lift
northward, but will weaken as it crosses Southcentral due to
rapidly rising heights aloft as the upper level flow amplifies.
Thus, expect little in the way of precipitation with it. Low level
southeast flow will favor upslope precipitation in western Prince
William Sound as well as the west side of Cook Inlet and the
western Susitna Valley.

Another occluded front will make its way to Kodiak Island on
Tuesday, with temperatures warm enough to produce all rain. This
front will also dissipate as it lifts northward toward Southcentral.
A much more significant storm system is shaping up for Tuesday
night into Wednesday. While there is uncertainty in the storm
track, there is high confidence this system will track into the
Bering Sea. Deep southerly flow will pump up warm air from the
Pacific to Southcentral, so as precipitation spreads to the Gulf
coast on Wednesday it will fall as mostly rain. Strong low level
southeast flow will lead to downslope drying for the population
centers, from the western Kenai to Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley. The exact track of the storm will ultimately determine how
significant of a warm-up these areas see.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Today and
Tuesday)... An occluded front associated with a North Pacific low
nearing the central Aleutians will bring precipitation to much of
Southwest over the next two days and, in its wake, a shift to
warmer weather.

The front is currently stretched from the AKPEN to the central
Aleutians. High pressure over eastern Siberia and an Arctic upper
low over northern AK have maintained offshore flow and very cold,
dry conditions in the lower Kuskokwim Valley/Kuskokwim Delta,
however farther south along the AKPEN temperatures have started to
increase in southerly flow behind the front. Expect blowing snow
in the Bristol Bay area later today, then a transition to rain and
temperatures above freezing Tuesday. Looking farther north, the
lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta will hang on to
northeast flow at the surface until later tonight, and expect
blowing snow along the Kusko Delta coast tonight. These areas will
likely hang on to cold air a bit longer than farther south, but
even inland valleys will warm to above freezing by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Today and
Tuesday)... A gale force North Pacific low is slowly shifting
north/northwest toward the central Aleutians. This low will
continue to bring areas of gales to the western Aleutians and
widespread gales to much of the Bering, including the Pribilofs,
throughout the day. Over the eastern Aleutians, winds will slowly
diminish today as the low gradually shifts westward.

An occluded front associated with the low currently stretches
from the AKPEN to the central Aleutians, and ptypes over the
central and eastern Aleutians have changed over to rain.
Temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s will persist into
Tuesday. The western Aleutians remain on the cold side of the low,
thus will continue snow or rain/snow mix. A deformation band
nearing the Pribilofs is evident on water vapor satellite which
will enhance precipitation rates. With northeast gales at the
surface, expect blowing snow today into tonight. As the front
lifts north of the area, winds will veer to southerly and
precipitation will transition to rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Wednesday through Friday)

The marine outlook remains challenging as model continuity remains
modest. The general trend over the last 24 hours has been for a
northwestward shift in the surface and upper air pattern, as a
ridge of high pressure build northwest across the east central
Gulf, then across southcentral alaska into the North Slope. This
will also allow a series of lows lifting across the western and
central Aleutians on Wednesday to retrograde towards the western
Aleutians and Kamchatka Peninsula by Friday. How fast this occurs
and where the low pressure centers will be is yet to be
determined.

However, there has been some improvement with this since
yesterday. The GFS and Canadian models have similar forecast
solutions, where as the European model (ECMWF) seems somewhat in
agreement, but to a much lesser extent. This causes surface low
strength differences of up to 20 mb. Overall, the most likely
scenario at this point is for each system and their associated
fronts to bring sustained gale force winds with some gusts perhaps
approaching lower-end storm force. Some of these fronts may reach
the western Gulf before weakening as the bump into the downstream
ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Model uncertainty remains moderate in the Wednesday through Friday
time frame, before the numerical forecasts continuity degrades
more towards the weekend. In general the surface and upper pattern
favors a ridge of high pressure gradually building northwestward
from the eastern Pacific, into the east central Gulf, continuing
towards the North Slope and eastern Siberia. This would allow for
moderating temperatures as we head through the period with some
precipitation type issues for Southcentral possibly developing,
due to warmer air aloft advecting over the colder surface
conditions, as a weakening front from the Bering lows tries to
push into the region before weakening somewhat while slowing down.
Should this occur, the over-running warm air around 850 mb would
cause at least some precipitation type concerns, most likely to
develop in the late Wednesday through Thursday time frame.

Meanwhile, a series of lows will continue to lift north across
the central Aleutians before stalling as they build into the
building ridge, causing each low to rotate around each other in a
Fujiwhara-like fashion early on. As the ridge continues to build
towards the weekend, its associated effect will be to shift this
area of disturbed weather further west towards the western
Aleutians, extending northwestward towards the Kamchatka
Peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 130 139 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185 411 412 413 414
         Heavy Freezing Spray 160 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD