Gale Warning 69, NWS Anchorage, AK

510 
FZAK52 PAFC 211252
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220200-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 mb low 240 nm southeast of Adak moves 120 nm east of Adak 
at 965 mb Mon night. The low then moves 200 nm west of Saint Paul 
at 968 mb Tue night. A second 974 mb North Pacific low moves 360
nm south of Sand Point Tue afternoon and then moves over Sand
Point at 976 mb Tue night.


$$

PKZ150-220200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-220200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt except S 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-220200-
Bristol Bay-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near the ice edge. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Freezing spray near the ice edge. Seas in 
ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-220200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-220200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-220200-
Unalaska Bay-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-220200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ173-220200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-220200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-220200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-220200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-220200-
Adak to Kiska-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side...19 ft Pacific
side. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side...16 ft Pacific
side. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft Bering side...15 ft Pacific side.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-220200-
Kiska to Attu-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-220200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray north of St.
George Island. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Freezing spray north of St. George Island. Widespread snow 
showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray north of St. George Island. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-220200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-220200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.WED...E wind 25 kt.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-220200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 AM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

822 
FZAK52 PAFC 220013
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221300-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 961 mb low 25 nm Southeast of Seguam Island moves to 270 nm West
of St Paul Island at 973 mb for Wed afternoon. Its front wraps 
over the Aleutians and Central Bering through Wed afternoon. A 
972 mb North Pacific low 790 nm South of Amchitka loops over 
Bethel at 988 mb by Wed afternoon. Its front pushes into the 
Western Gulf of Alaska for Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-221300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221300-
Bristol Bay-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-221300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221300-
Unalaska Bay-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221300-
Adak to Kiska-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side...15 ft Pacific
side. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft Bering side...15 ft Pacific side.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221300-
Kiska to Attu-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Freezing spray north of St. George Island. Widespread snow 
showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray north of St. George Island.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-221300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-221300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKST Sun Jan 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level ridge is centered over the northern Bering
and extends across most of the Bering and mainland Alaska. This is
leading to relatively quiet weather across most of the state this
morning with clear and cold conditions. Satellite imagery shows
fog and low stratus lurking in the Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, and
Turnagain Arm areas while stratus can seen seen covering most the
Copper River Basin. A weak surface low in the Gulf is drawing cold
air south from the inland areas leading to gusty outflow winds
along the coast including in Whittier, Seward, near Valdez, and
Thompson Pass.

Most of the action lies further west as a front weakens and shears
apart across the western Aleutians while a strong (sub 960 mb) low
pushes north towards the central Aleutians. A front out ahead of
the low is currently passing over Adak and Atka while
recent scatterometer passes show gale to localized storm force
winds wrapping around the low center approaching the island chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into better agreement regarding the major
synoptic features impacting the state through the early part of
the week, specifically a strong north Pacific low over the
central Aleutians with a series of fronts moving north and east
across the southern mainland. Models show good enough agreement
with these features to confidently add in details surrounding
into the forecast, though there are still some minor timing
differences with a front pushing up the Gulf on Tuesday. Models
begin to come apart by Thursday as they are struggling with timing
and placement of a continual barrage of lows and fronts embedded
within strong southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The 12Z sounding shows drier low levels and a shallower
inversion than the last two nights. Thus, the fog threat is much
less this morning, though webcams and local ASOS stations in the
Anchorage Bowl still show some low stratus lingering near the Knik
Arm. Decided to only tempo in LIFR conditions for this morning
with less confidence of dense fog setting up. The fog threat
decreases even more for tonight as a cold upper level low swings a
bit further south towards Anchorage, which will help to mix the
atmosphere and further weaken the low level inversion.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Monday night)...
A short-wave digging southward across western Alaska today will
cause the mean low level flow over Southcentral to back from west
to south. Some existing showers sitting over the northern Gulf
will then advect onshore across eastern Prince William Sound and
into the southern Copper River Basin. The showers are not all
that impressive right now, but as warmer air from the Gulf is
forced over top of colder air over land, precipitation will
increase. Elsewhere across Southcentral, cold and dry conditions
will persist. Some patchy fog and low clouds will linger in the
Anchorage area as well as the Copper River Basin. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies will dominate.

An occluded front extending from a deep Aleutian low will make
its way to Kodiak Island tonight into Monday. The airmass in
place is cold enough to support snow, so expect some light snow
accumulation before a changeover to rain by early Monday for most
locations. The surface front will continue to weaken as it lifts
northward Monday due to formation of a triple point low tracking
to the eastern Gulf. A series of upper level short-waves combined
with isentropic lift will spread precipitation northward across
Southcentral Monday through Monday night. For many inland areas,
have just included a chance of snow, as expect precipitation to
be very light and may just see a dusting of snow out of this.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure over the northwestern Bering Sea and an Arctic
upper low over northern AK will maintain offshore flow and cold,
dry conditions throughout the day today. Patchy fog in the lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta should lift by late morning.

Late tonight, a front associated with a low shifting towards the
central Aleutians from the North Pacific will bring a pattern
change to wetter conditions. The front will bring precipitation to
the AKPEN Monday morning with heaviest accumulation on the Gulf
side, then precipitation will spread northward as the front
shifts. With cold air in place, expect ptypes along the front to
begin as snow but transition to a rain/snow mix or rain as warmer
air moves in from the south. Precipitation should reach the
Bristol Bay area by Monday evening, with areas of blowing snow
possible. A shortwave associated with the main low will enhance
precip rates north of Dillingham into the Kilbuck and Ahklun
mountains. There's a chance of snow in the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley/Y-K Delta but based on the trajectory of the front, those
areas will be in the snow shadow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A front associated with a low that has shifted northwest out of
the western Aleutians will continue to bring precipitation to the
western and central Aleutians today. A storm force low in the
North Pacific is slowly approaching the central Aleutians. Winds
in the coastal waters have already reached gale force, and the
0925z ASCAT pass observed storm force winds in the periphery of
the low. Expect widespread gales to spread north into the central
Bering including the Pribilofs today, with a band of storm force
winds just south of the central Aleutians. An occluded front
associated with this low will bring a large area of potential
precip today, from the western Aleutians to the AKPEN. With cold
air in place from northeast flow, expect initial ptype of snow in
the Aleutians. As the low shifts northwestward tonight, precipitation
will transition to rain as warm air lifts northward. In addition,
expect an area of storm force winds in the Bering side of the
Aleutians this evening as that low shifts. Monday, expect a
deformation zone to set up across the Bering, bringing snow and
blowing snow to the Pribilofs.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

The marine outlook is fraught with uncertainty through this period
with significant model uncertainty. Most of the models have a low
somewhere over the central Aleutians on Tuesday morning, but there
are several hundred miles difference in the centers between the
western-most EC and the eastern-most Canadian models at that time.
This low remains more-or-less stationary into Wednesday and acts
as an anchor low as a series of additional waves of low pressure
move northward across the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula
through Thursday. Each of the lows has the potential to produce
gales and perhaps even some storm force winds in localized areas,
but with large model uncertainty Wednesday and Thursday in both
timing and storm track, where and when those strong winds will
occur cannot be said at this point. The Gulf will be relatively
quiet, though any fronts or lows that take a more eastward track
my produce gale force winds at times across the western Gulf as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

Model uncertainty with the track of individual lows and as a
result, any hazardous weather associated therewith is high today.
A few things can be said regarding the large-scale weather
pattern, however. An upper level trough over the central Bering
will shift west and consolidate into an upper level low that will
persist over the western Bering through Saturday. Further east,
an upper level ridge over the western half of North America will
amplify through the week. With much of mainland Alaska in between,
this will set the stage for the pattern to become increasingly
active as the upper level winds turn predominately out of the
south. The southerly winds and frequent bouts of precipitation
should return Southern Alaska to a notably warmer and cloudier
weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday. The upper low shifts
further west towards Kamchatka, which in turn will shift the
storm track slowly westward in time perhaps allowing for quieter
weather for the weekend. A quieter weather pattern may start to
allow temperatures to moderate cooler back towards seasonal
normals, but until then warm and wet will be the weather theme.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storms 172 173 174.
         Gales 155 165 170 171 175 176 177 179 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 139 160 180 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW