Gale Warning 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

939 
FZAK62 PAFC 131248
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140145-
348 AM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 957 mb low at 53N 171W will move to 56N 172W at 968 mb Mon
morning. The low will then move to 57N 175W at 976 mb Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ411-140145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 
56N. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N of 56N. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 15 to
22 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

110 
FZAK62 PAFC 140047
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141430-
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 957 mb low at 55N 171W moves to 57N 172W at 970 mb Mon
afternoon. The low then exits the Bering to the north at 990 mb
Tue afternoon. A 980 mb North Pacific low moves to 53N 158W Mon
afternoon and then dissipates by Mon evening.

$$

PKZ411-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft. 
Freezing spray. Heavy freezing spray north of 57N. Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 176W. Snow.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing
spray west of 176W. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 PM AKST Sun Jan 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming 25 to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

036 
FZAK62 PAFC 141220
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 AM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150215-
320 AM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 964 mb low at 55N 173W will move to 60N 175W at 986 mb Tue 
morning. The associated front over the central Bering will 
dissipate Wed morning. A 982 mb North Pacific low will move to 53N
157W Mon afternoon then it will move near 58N 162W at 986 mb Mon 
night. The low will then dissipate Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
320 AM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
320 AM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
320 AM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
320 AM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

158 
FZAK62 PAFC 150023
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151430-
323 PM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 mb low at 55N 172W moves to 61N 175W at 989 mb Tue afternoon
and then exits the Bering Wed afternoon. A 980 mb North Pacific 
low moves to 51N 155W Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Freezing spray west
of 178W. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 178W.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 178W.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 178W.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 178W.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. 
Freezing spray west of 178W.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKST Mon Jan 14 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

594 
FZAK62 PAFC 151243
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160145-
343 AM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 mb low at 58N 171W will exit into the northern Bering Tue
afternoon. A front over the eastern Bering will dissipate Tue
afternoon. A front associated with an approaching North Pacific
low will move over the central Aleutians Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ411-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKST Tue Jan 15 2019

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKST Sat Jan 12 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The synoptic pattern is being kicked into motion by an upper level
subtropical jet which is amplifying across the North Pacific. This
jet is kicking a closed low just south of the Alaska Peninsula
toward the Bering. Another sprawling low, with a closed center
south of the Rat Islands, is on a track toward the Central
Aleutians. The upper low that dominated the central interior on
Friday, is now flattening out as the the jet drives the next low
toward the Alaska Peninsula. At the surface, the pattern persists
from yesterday with the coldest temperatures across the mainland
and the gustiest conditions noted across the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement on the overall synoptic change;
however, there is still uncertainty on how fast the pattern will
warm across the southern mainland. There are also minor
differences in the track and timing of the subsequent fronts
associated with the next developing system expected to move across
the North Pacific to the southern Bering on Sunday. Adjustments
on the morning package were made using the influences from the NAM
across Southcentral and the Gulf, with GFS mainly used across the
Southwest and Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Brief IFR conditions were included for early this morning
in a tempo group as low stratus is trapped under a temperature
inversion. Otherwise, kept a scattered low deck through the
afternoon as there is high uncertainty in the timing of the lower
ceilings. Weak isentropic lift is expected to initiate a few
flurries with light northerly expected to persist through late Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday Night)...

A pattern change toward warmer, wetter, and locally windy
conditions is on track for this weekend. The first in a series of
fronts heads north today bringing rain to Kodiak Island this
morning and spreading snow or a mix of rain and snow to the Gulf
Coasts and Kenai Peninsula through tonight. Cold air damming west
of the Chugach will mitigate downslope drying typical with SE cross-
barrier flow and allow some light snow to work west of the
Chugach. Downslope will become more of a factor on Sunday as warm
advection in advance of the next front heading north erodes the
cold dome. So expect the brunt of frontal precipitation to hold
mainly along the coast Sunday with minimal amounts inland.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend with
coastal areas rising to well above freezing and many inland areas
of Sunday climbing into the upper teens to lower 30s, coolest in
the Copper River Basin.

Gap winds will increases today across Turnagain Arm/Portage Valley
today. This combined with falling snow will produce locally low
conditions in blowing snow from Portage Valley to Turnagain Pass
tonight into Sunday morning. Snow should transition toward a mix
in these locals on Sunday and end the blowing snow threat. Gales
to localized storm force winds can be expected over the Gulf
Marine areas, mainly western Gulf, through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Sat
through Mon)...

A closed low south of the Eastern Aleutians, moving north, will
spread increasing chances for snow across Southwest tonight.
However, with strong northeast offshore winds, this will generally
keep precipitation on the lighter side since this low does not
have much of a moisture surge with it. Some coastal blowing snow
is possible along the Kuskokwim Delta. Otherwise, for today, the
main story will remain bitterly cold temps with the wind chill
advisory continuing into the midday.

A warm front will move into Southwest Saturday night into Sunday,
bringing a much more impressive surge of moisture. The warm air
will quickly penetrate Bristol Bay and warm that area up, but
favorable northeast winds 20-30 MPH will continue across the
Kusko Delta. With a burst of 2-3" of snow and strong offshore
winds, expect significant areas of blowing snow possibly reducing
visibilities to a half mile or less during the morning and early
afternoon Sunday before the front moves north and the southerly
winds kick in. A blowing snow advisory may be needed, but held off
for now to get a better handle on timing.

The strong southerly flow continues through Monday, but
precipitation will be more hit or miss behind the dryslot of the
strong warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Sat
through Mon)...

A vertically stacked low south of the Western Aleutians continues
to push its frontal boundary across the Chain as it progresses
northeastward towards the Pribilof Islands for Sunday morning.
This low remains storm force based on latest ASCAT imagery and
observations at Shemya. As it moves over the central Aleutians on
Sunday, the low center that has been dominating the pattern
merges with a deeper low center that spins up further east from
the first low. Northeasterly, gale force winds will spread across
most of the Bering and Pribilofs through Sunday morning, until
this system changes positions and starts to bring a southerly flow
by Sunday evening.

One area of concern is would be the frontal system Saturday
through Sunday morning for the Pribilof Islands, which could see
reduced visibilities and blowing snow for a brief period before
the southerly winds kick in. By Monday morning, winds should calm
down a bit for the Aleutians and Pribilofs, with some gales
remaining in the north central Bering, which will diminish to
small crafts throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the marine extended period forecast on Monday, a ~965 mb
low will be slowly moving north over the central Aleutians and
into the Bering, centered near the Pribilofs by Tuesday. The
Bering will be under broad cyclonic flow during this time with
areas of gale force winds expected on the periphery of the low, to
the east and west of the Pribilofs. Winds will diminish through
the day as the low weakens and slowly moves north, with mostly
just small crafts expected by Tuesday afternoon. Wave heights will
also be subsiding through Wednesday, decreasing from near 20 ft
west of the Pribilofs on Monday to only 10-15 ft by Wednesday.

The Gulf of Alaska will see a more active pattern as a series of
storm systems move through, kicking up winds and wave heights
through the first part of the week. Right now, it looks like winds
should remain predominately below gale force, though areas east
and north of Kodiak Island and though the Barren Islands will
likely see periods of gales Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Another system is expected to push through the northern Gulf
Tuesday into Wednesday, but there is still a fair amount of
uncertainty regarding the strength and timing this far out.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning Monday, the southern mainland will be under broad
southerly flow as the area will be caught in between an upper
level low over the Bering and an upper ridge axis over the Pacific
west coast. Warm and moist air will be pumped north into the Gulf
Coast, with a barrage of fronts and lows streaming into the area.
Models still show a chaotic mess in terms of specific features,
with timing and placement differences, but overall it appears the
windward (east) side of the AKPEN, Kodiak, and the Kenai
Peninsula will get the brunt of the action with typical leeward
locations expected to remain mostly dry due to downsloping. These
systems don't look to be as strong the ones that moved through
the area over the New Years holiday due to weaker upper level jet
support. Temperatures are expected to remain well above average
through the middle part of the week. For snow lovers, snow levels
look to rise above sea level in the mountains, meaning rain may
fall at the lower elevations along the coastal mountains from the
Kenai Peninsula to the Chugach along the Gulf Coast.

By the end of the week, models begin hinting at another pattern
change with the upper low over the Bering retreating north
allowing ridging to potentially build back in over the southern
mainland, allowing for a drying/cooling trend over the area.
Still a fair amount of disagreement in the models this far out so
specific details will need some time to get worked out.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 125.
         Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Storms 130 178.
         Gales 120 131 132 136-139 150 155 160 165 170-177 179-181 185
         Heavy Freezing Spray 130 139 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA/AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP