Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1037 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR/IFR cigs and vis to persist well into the afternoon with areas
of fg across eastern NM with low cigs through central NM and a
fropa bringing the next wave of -rasn into western NM this hour. The
fropa will progress in the RGV to KABQ and KSAF by 19Z-21Z bringing
vis reductions. This front will lose much of its associated
precipitation as it moves into the eastern plains this afternoon, but
a strong uptick in sw/wsw winds will follow at all TAF locations
lasting through the end of the TAF period. Vis and cigs are also
expected to improve through the night.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another storm system and associated cold front will sweep west to
east across the state today, bringing gusty winds and another round
of moderate to heavy snow for the northern and western mountains.
Strong winds continue along and east of the central mountain chain
Saturday, with any lingering snowfall ending across the northern
mountains Saturday morning. Temperatures will warm into the early
part of the week, but another storm system arriving mid-week could
bring a round of high elevation snow and valley rain across western
and northern New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Another batch of precipitation, mostly rain, sweeping from southwest
to northeast over central and eastern NM at this time. Isolated and
very brief, as they are fast moving, thunderstorms have been noted
over the southeast and east central plains with this batch, but
appear to be exiting the state shortly. Some instability forecast
along the central mountain chain later today, but did not include any
thunder in the forecast, as it is not expected to be the most
impactful element. Areas of fog or freezing fog will be more
noticable early this morning with some locally dense fog reported at
this hour at Clines Corners and Ruidoso airport. Not terribly
confident in the current dense fog advisory, as light precipitation
seems to be at least temporarily improving visibilities. May end up
canceling it in the next hour or two. Otherwise, have added a couple
of zones in west central/nw NM along the Contdvd to the winter
weather advisory.

Also going ahead with a high wind watch for portions of the central
mountain chain and eastern plains, starting when the current winter
highlights expire for the Sangre de Cristo mts and continuing
through Saturday afternoon. Today's winter highlights will likely
cover wind impacts in the west and north, with the watch kicking in
once the snow tapers off. Succeeding shifts will need to fine tune,
but guidance suggests gusts to around 60 mph are possible.

Calmer and warmer weather forecast for Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A slight warming trend will begin Sunday as a ridge builds over the
state, but high temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Monday and Tuesday will be near to above normal for this time
of year. The next storm arrives Wednesday, as an upper-level trough
tracks over the state from California, but some differences exist as
far as timing. Both the ECMWF and GFS now show the low developing
into a closed low at the surface, although the ECMWF shows a low
that's slightly deeper. It looks to be another round of high
elevation snow and valley rain across northern and western New
Mexico. Models seem to be in good agreement that a ridge will
traverse over the state for the early part of the weekend.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal from mid- week
through the remainder of next week.

31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wetting precipitation will continue today and tonight over western
and northern New Mexico as another storm system and associated cold
front sweeps over the region from west to east. This system will
bring colder air, so snow levels will lower during the afternoon and
evening. Snow is expected to taper off over the west by early
Saturday, with spotty snow continuing Saturday over the northern
peaks. Very strong winds will be associated with this system, this
afternoon through Saturday over the higher terrain and especially
along the central mountain chain across the northeast and east
central plains. Below normal temperatures today through Sunday will
transition closer to or even above normal Monday and Tuesday with
potential for a cool down and mountain precipitation the middle of
next week as another upper low swings over the state.

Vent rates improve today and Saturday. Widespread poor ventilation
will return Sunday through Tuesday, with localized fair to
good rates Wednesday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ203>206-216.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ202-208-210-211-213>215.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ212-215-221>223-227>237.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ226.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
316 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019

NMZ201>241-301200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
316 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of mountain snow across northern and western New
Mexico, valley rain, fog/ patchy freezing fog early this morning
across central New Mexico, and gusty winds are set to arrive today
with a Pacific cold front. Winds along and east of the central
mountain chain with gusts up to 65 mph will lead to hazardous travel
conditions. Moderate to heavy snow along the Interstate 40 corridor
will likely impact travel.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Lingering snowfall over the northern mountains may cause slick road
conditions during the morning hours Saturday. Additionally, strong
winds will impact areas along and east of the central mountain chain
with gusts between 60 to 65 mph. Hazardous travel conditons and
isolated power outages can be expected.

Temperatures warm Sunday through Tuesday as a ridge builds over the
state, but a storm system mid-week could bring another round of high
elevation snow and valley rain across western and northern New
Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

31

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