Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
332 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast concerns are convective potential and severity mainly
over the next 12 hours. Rain/storm chances toward the middle of
the week are another item of mention.

An anomalously strong upper trough for this time of year is
shifting into the Plains this afternoon. A lead wave is shifting
across OK/KS this afternoon, and its surface reflection is slowly
deepening over south central KS. A cold front is developing to the
southwest of the low across western OK. Ahead of the cold front, a
low level convergent zone or wind shift is supporting a band of
non severe showers and storms in the Tulsa area and points
northeast. A pseudo-warm front was laid out east-west across NW AR
back into NE OK ahead of the low level wind shift. CAM guidance is
aggressive in developing the ongoing band of convection with time
and is now suggesting a quick evolution from cellular convection
to bowing line segments as it approaches or moves into NW AR.
Given favorable shear profiles in the base of the upper trough,
there is potential for supercells with a hail/wind and isolated
tornado threat initially, evolving quickly into a potential qlcs
event with short-lived tornadoes. The band of storms should shift
quickly east of the region by 03Z.

There will be some potential for showers and isolated storms as
the main upper low slides across the Ozarks on Monday. However,
the bulk of the stronger storm activity along a secondary and
stronger cold front during the afternoon is expected to be well to
the east and south of the forecast area.

Models continue to suggest that there will be a window of shower
and storm chances toward midweek in a zone of favorable warm
advection in between the advancing upper ridge and departing upper
trough to our east. Instability will be meager with the good
moisture shunted well to our south and east, so this will
probably not be a big deal.

After being below normal this weekend into much of next week, a
fairly quick warm up and dry out is expected to close out the
week as mid level heights rise over the region. Mid level ridging
is expected to persist thru next weekend and into the following
week, suggesting that more typical summer time weather is not done
yet folks.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  84  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   72  85  68  87 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   71  85  66  86 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   67  83  62  84 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   68  81  63  81 /  60  20  10  10
BYV   68  81  64  82 /  60  30  10  10
MKO   69  84  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   67  81  64  82 /  50  20   0   0
F10   69  85  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   73  89  68  90 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

A broken line of thunderstorms are starting to develop along an
approaching frontal boundary across northeast Oklahoma. Storms may
evolve into a strong to severe QLCS as the convective line shifts
into northwest Arkansas by late afternoon or early evening. The main
threat with these storms will be damaging downburst winds and a few
brief tornadoes. The storms are expected to shift east of the area
by mid evening with the severe threat diminishing.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday across far eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Additional thunderstorm chances
will exist late Wednesday night and Thursday morning as an upper
level disturbance moves across the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JENKS                   36.02N 95.97W
08/19/2018                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT MORRIS PARK ON 121ST JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

OKZ069-072-074-192130-
Haskell OK-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HASKELL...CENTRAL
SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northeast of Vian to 2 miles south of Tamaha.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Stilwell...
Vian...                           Marble City...
Tamaha...                         Brushy Lake State Park...
Brushy...                         Adair State Park...
Bunch...                          Mc Key...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 295 and
311.

LAT...LON 3590 9456 3543 9471 3532 9503 3556 9498
      3564 9488 3564 9481 3570 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 230DEG 26KT 3554 9494 3536 9500

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
434 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

ARZ019-192200-
Crawford AR-
434 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Short, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
Natural Dam...                    Lee Creek...
Uniontown...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 31 and 32.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northwestern
Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3564 9416 3553 9446 3564 9448 3567 9448
      3576 9430 3575 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 239DEG 28KT 3559 9450

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

ARZ010-019-020-192230-
Washington AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
446 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles east of Westville to 3 miles northwest of Lee
Creek to 2 miles east of Short. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
Natural Dam...                    Farmington...
Prairie Grove...                  Elkins...
West Fork...                      Lincoln...
Mulberry...                       Greenland...
Dyer...                           Winslow...
Chester...                        Rudy...
Cincinnati...                     Devils Den State Park...
Brentwood...                      Lake Fort Smith...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 18 and 22.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 70.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northwestern
and west central Arkansas...and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3551 9406 3549 9445 3569 9447 3605 9454
      3618 9410 3582 9396 3576 9396 3576 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 258DEG 28KT 3597 9450 3571 9439 3558 9445