Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Tulsa, OK

032 
WWUS54 KTSA 192212
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
512 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

OKC035-192222-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-180819T2230Z/
Craig OK-
512 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3653 9462 3654 9482 3699 9477 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 252DEG 39KT 3695 9468 3662 9469 

$$

OKC041-115-192230-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-180819T2230Z/
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
512 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES...

At 512 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southeast of Baxter Springs to 4 miles
northeast of Grove, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Wyandotte...
Honey Creek State Park...         Dodge...
Cayuga...                         Peoria...
Twin Bridges State Park...        

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 314 and 324.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3653 9462 3654 9482 3699 9477 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 252DEG 39KT 3695 9468 3662 9469 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

731 
WWUS54 KTSA 192227
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
527 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

OKC041-115-192236-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-180819T2230Z/
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
527 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND
EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3653 9462 3654 9482 3699 9477 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 253DEG 20KT 3697 9459 3664 9460 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
332 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast concerns are convective potential and severity mainly
over the next 12 hours. Rain/storm chances toward the middle of
the week are another item of mention.

An anomalously strong upper trough for this time of year is
shifting into the Plains this afternoon. A lead wave is shifting
across OK/KS this afternoon, and its surface reflection is slowly
deepening over south central KS. A cold front is developing to the
southwest of the low across western OK. Ahead of the cold front, a
low level convergent zone or wind shift is supporting a band of
non severe showers and storms in the Tulsa area and points
northeast. A pseudo-warm front was laid out east-west across NW AR
back into NE OK ahead of the low level wind shift. CAM guidance is
aggressive in developing the ongoing band of convection with time
and is now suggesting a quick evolution from cellular convection
to bowing line segments as it approaches or moves into NW AR.
Given favorable shear profiles in the base of the upper trough,
there is potential for supercells with a hail/wind and isolated
tornado threat initially, evolving quickly into a potential qlcs
event with short-lived tornadoes. The band of storms should shift
quickly east of the region by 03Z.

There will be some potential for showers and isolated storms as
the main upper low slides across the Ozarks on Monday. However,
the bulk of the stronger storm activity along a secondary and
stronger cold front during the afternoon is expected to be well to
the east and south of the forecast area.

Models continue to suggest that there will be a window of shower
and storm chances toward midweek in a zone of favorable warm
advection in between the advancing upper ridge and departing upper
trough to our east. Instability will be meager with the good
moisture shunted well to our south and east, so this will
probably not be a big deal.

After being below normal this weekend into much of next week, a
fairly quick warm up and dry out is expected to close out the
week as mid level heights rise over the region. Mid level ridging
is expected to persist thru next weekend and into the following
week, suggesting that more typical summer time weather is not done
yet folks.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  84  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   72  85  68  87 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   71  85  66  86 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   67  83  62  84 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   68  81  63  81 /  60  20  10  10
BYV   68  81  64  82 /  60  30  10  10
MKO   69  84  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   67  81  64  82 /  50  20   0   0
F10   69  85  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   73  89  68  90 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

A broken line of thunderstorms are starting to develop along an
approaching frontal boundary across northeast Oklahoma. Storms may
evolve into a strong to severe QLCS as the convective line shifts
into northwest Arkansas by late afternoon or early evening. The main
threat with these storms will be damaging downburst winds and a few
brief tornadoes. The storms are expected to shift east of the area
by mid evening with the severe threat diminishing.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday across far eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Additional thunderstorm chances
will exist late Wednesday night and Thursday morning as an upper
level disturbance moves across the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JENKS                   36.02N 95.97W
08/19/2018                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT MORRIS PARK ON 121ST JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

OKZ069-072-074-192130-
Haskell OK-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HASKELL...CENTRAL
SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northeast of Vian to 2 miles south of Tamaha.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Stilwell...
Vian...                           Marble City...
Tamaha...                         Brushy Lake State Park...
Brushy...                         Adair State Park...
Bunch...                          Mc Key...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 295 and
311.

LAT...LON 3590 9456 3543 9471 3532 9503 3556 9498
      3564 9488 3564 9481 3570 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 230DEG 26KT 3554 9494 3536 9500